Member Info for Edhellas

I can't remember the last time we met two deadlines in a row, but management do deliver. Still one day left if they want to release on schedule. If not, won't be long regardless.

I just hope we aren't playing cat and mouse with the auction date intentionally.

Mark has progressed our WA projects significantly with minimal dilution already. No need for concern there.

Very likely that the interview comes after the news, as per usual.

Indeed, LCMs backing brings a lot of weight for our case. My point was that we aren't in the same set of rules, and the stats from that research note are old.

In the past ~8 years, the general trend has been for international cases to finish faster. PAT and LCM point out that this could take 3-5 years. But it's also possible that we'll get a decision earlier than that.

I'll be happy to see the claim amount for now. If the arbitrators are all selected this year I'm sure we'll get some movement on the stock.

And an updated Cascades MRE.

Our case is being raised under the provisions of the India-Australia BIT, which was shut down by India in 2017.

"The Australia-India BIT signed on 26 February 1999 was terminated relatively recently, on 23 March 2017. However, in accordance with Article 17(3) of the treaty, certain provisions of the Australia-India BIT will continue to be effective for a period of 15 years from the date of termination, i.e. until 23 March 2032"

https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/investment/australias-bilateral-investment-treaties

It states that the initial arbitrators should be determined within two months of the notice, then one more month for the third arbitrator.

Let us hope that India sticks to those time limits. If not, it needs to be escalated, taking further time.

I don't think there are any time limits in the BIT for the tribunal unfortunately. India has also changed their laws pertaining to international cases in 2015, 2019 and 2021. I haven't gone though those in detail yet.

The main positive for me is that LCM are confident we can win.

Bear in mind two important things:

ICSID has been reworked since the research you linked, to make arbitration faster.

India is not an ICSID member.

Is that the 2009 article?

I don't see a 20% stake in a project with $18m of secured funding as a distraction. Cascades updated MRE will come this year and tell us whether it's feasible (2-3moz).

Unrelated but there is a lot of buzz around Enviva currently. The market is pricing in bankruptcy for next week, 20% short interest.

A lot of their shares are held internally or by institutions. If they don't go bankrupt on Monday, those shorts need to cover, and there aren't many shares to do so.

If they go manage to not go bankrupt, there should be a short squeeze next week.

The best case is arbitration in my opinion. Who wants to work with a government that's spent nearly 20 years cutting you off and betraying you? There's no trust left. If Mark Bolton of all people couldn't get a successful negotiation, there's no point.

If by some miracle they granted the license, they'd find another way to cut us out. PAT need to get the money via arbitration, and say goodbye to Bhukia.

Prof, this is a case under the Australia-India BIT, nothing to do with the UK.

@Gallmer the Cascades project has $18m of funding secured, where we have a 20% stake. It's likely to become a mine at some point. Updated MRE to come this year.

Just my personal theory, but I think they will develop the other West Africa projects as cheaply as possible and sell some off in a couple of years.

PAT has been very good in terms of minimising dilution so far. I don't see them going down the GGP route.

All they've said is Q1.

Mark confirmed via email that they do mean calendar Q1, so anytime this next month would fit.

He also said they plan to do another interview in March, which suggests they are on track to deliver.

PAT have promising projects in Burkina and Mali, the sum of which could have a value close to Bhukia. If you stay in on PAT you're not just relying on the litigation, the other projects will have their own value.

They've suggested twice that the claim amount will be somewhere between $500m-$1b, with the usual disclaimers.

We will find out soon. Gla

They said to expect news in Q1, not long left. We know Mark is normally late so must be patient.

No idea sorry, he mentioned it in passing in a recent email.

I presume it'll be after the NoA news. Most their interviews are with Proactive, but who knows? Could be anybody really. I'm hoping we get more exposure on this, as we're still under the radar for most PIs.

We won't go into auction.

PAT plan to do another interview later in March. So the NoA should come sometime in the next ~4 weeks.

Works for me

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/williampanlilio_panthera-resources-issues-notice-of-dispute-activity-7161192861596614656-Gb0X?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

I mentioned about 3-4 years ago that I was very interested in Kalaka. Great to see some progress there.

Potential for 500k - 3moz low-grade is excellent news. I'm surprised how quiet this board is on this piece.