Member Info for Edhellas

Ignore my previous comment, misremembered.

This is what they said last year:

"Assuming US$750m gross settlement net proceeds after commission/expenses could be US$623m: On a net recovery basis, a claim for damages needs to take account of LCM’s commission and expenses. If we assume gross damages of US$750m or US$125/oz Au given resources of 6m oz, the net amount would be US$623m (£509m) based on commission of 15% (US$113m) and expenses of US$14m. In addition to a judgment for damages, we believe that the Republic of India would be subject to an interest penalty from the date of the original treaty transgression. It should be noted that both the gross and net estimate of damages is highly speculative at this stage. "

There's a research note from Allenby which mentions the cut LCM take (full details in our RNS) , I think they also speculate how much Faskens might take

What's the Tethan case Prof? Don't think I've seen it

Ball finally rolling on this one

Mark is always late but he delivers. Very glad we didn't settle before the NoA, I don't trust the GoI to pay any early settlement if they aren't under international pressure. E.g. Cairn Energy had to chase to get their money, but they had international backing to ensure they got it.

I can't see any way we lose such a strong case, plus the expertise from LIT/LCM and Faskens.

I know the company said to expect 3-5 years from the date of NoA for an outcome, but I can't help feel that it might come in 2-3 years instead. These international cases have been streamlined in recent years and tend to be faster than they were just 15 years ago.

Hope the claim amount is released this year so we can see a nice steady SP rise, but I'm holding until the final outcome regardless so not a deal breaker if PAT keep it close to their chest.

My 4th July guess from a few months ago is out the window, shame

If we win the case, the GOI will have to pay up. If they fail to do so, we invoke the BIT process to force them to pay up.

I remember they lost a case to Cairn, and wouldn't pay up. Cairn sent quite some time chasing before the govt were forced to pay up.

The govt of Rajasthan already reneged after making a deal with us. Only a fool would settle early and lose the protection of the tribunal decision and LCM imo. The money LCM have pledged is to win the case, they won't chase the govt for another 2+ years after a settlement, at least not for free.

Not worth the hassle imo.

From April:

"In accordance with the Treaty, the parties must attempt to reach an amicable settlement and efforts are ongoing to determine if any potential exists for such a settlement of the dispute. If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to the Government of India."

The election in India and changing of the minister for mining were both expected delays. My previous guess was 4th July for NoA (made 21st April on the Advfn forum). If it comes true, I'm buying some Omaze tickets or something.

We're e waiting because we are obliged to try reaching an amicable agreement under the BIT. I did call this back in December, that the NoA wouldn't be until at least June.

It's unfortunate that Mark is suggesting we don't get the claim amount for some time. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a year or longer after the NoA at this rate.

Total time for these cases is typically 3-5 years and that's the implication we've had from PAT/Allenby.

Should be a lot of upside to the stock before the final decision, but no guarantee of that. I'll be holding until the final decision at least. Got enough shares to forget about working if it goes into multi £ territory.

I think it took them about 18 months after the NoA to confirm their claim amount, unless I missed it somewhere? Haven't watched them much

Presumably this narrows down our negotiations from "can we get the asset back / an early settlement" to just the latter.

Hope the GOI don't drag out the 'negotiations' that are underway so we can issue the NoA sooner

Is anybody else thinking of buying some shares in them?

When the news comes in I'll make a reddit post on R/pennystocks

*If* the people there decide to buy a penny stock, it has a nice rise.

I've been in for 3.5 years now I think, bought at 33p. Averaging 10p currently.

At this point I'm completely indifferent to the court case. I know we have a very strong case and some good backers. And PAT are always behind schedule. Learned to sit back and be patient

The one Matt posted is from

Reply of Pre-Bid Queries Pursuant to NIT dated 06-03-2024 (Gold Blocks)

https://mines.rajasthan.gov.in/dmgcms/page?menuName=QdpQ6vUZUuo;455611;O16ylVRa4Q==

Pat are always a few months unfortunately. Not expecting the claim amount until the end of the year now, if that.

Disappointing but they do deliver in the end.

He later replied with this

"BTW, in fear of grossly oversimplifying the precedent case law, the applicable ‘interest’ is the cost of capital applicable to the investor. For example, the WACC from the date the expropriation for a small cap gold company."

Email from Mark:

"Subject to the details outlined in the RNS on 2 April, we expect to issue the Notice of Arbitration (NoA) in the near future with the Statement of Claim (containing the damages amount) to follow later in the year. We may however elect to included a damages estimate in the NoA, however, this is discretionary. "

" I do you however refer you to our RNS on 2 January where we quoted government officials estimates of ~US$1 billion.

Unfortunately, this is the extent of what I am permitted to disclose at this time."

It seems pretty clear from their wording that I was correct on the 6 month time frame.

I doubt these negotiations will lead to anything, they are just trying to delay us. PAT would be stupid to accept any early settlement from the GoI. We don't want more false promises from the GOI. We want them to be bound by the decision of an international court.

I'm putting my money on a NoA RNS on 8th July, which coincidentally is my birthday.

Some may recall that I was confused by the Q1 deadline, as the treaty says that they have 6 months to negotiate before arbitration can be announced.

PAT insisted that there was no time limit or requirement, and they were simply being courteous.

From the treaty:

"If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal"

So it seems we're on track for my June estimate after all, as our notice of dispute was 2nd Jan 2024. Seems like they've made an obvious mistake in communications here.