I tried to go back a few pages to find the drill depth vs drill speed thread, but couldn't immediately find it (and I'm supposed to be working, so can't have an in-depth look!).
From my own 'back of a fag packet' calcs, later on this week is when I have us reaching target depth, so Thurs/Fri this week or early next week is my own expected timeline for news, and anything sooner is a bonus.
My opinion is... do your own research and create your own investment strategy, including any de-risking, accordingly. I don't think anyone else can really inform regarding a comfortable point to top-slice, exit, etc. as it'll be individual to you.
For what its worth though, based on my research and understanding of the company and its fundamentals, the short position mentioned has not changed my own strategy to hold.
@Ndn71: "A substantial part of the overall risking relates to the “play” risk, which is the same for all prospects. Therefore, if one well is successful, it would derisk HE1’s other targets. We estimate that it could double the overall chance of success for the other prospects."
The analysts on HE1's website state: "We assume a 6bcf prospect (in line with the average of the other planned prospects), which we see as worth 39p/sh unrisked." The other prospects will de-risk as well upon validation of the above-ground assessments on this first drill, too.
We will need to understand the size of any discovery to properly appraise how much the company is worth, and market sentiment will also drive the sp too. However, given the excitement around it at present, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50-60p for this first drill IMHO, if it is successful, with uplift from there as the remaining drills progress.
RE: Awaiting He discovery confirmation22 Jul 2021 15:12
Looking at the (genuinely excellent - many thanks all) 'Discussion on Drill Progression' thread, next Monday may be a little optimistic.
Based on the estimated range of 750-900m depth completed on that thread (as of this morning), and an assumed 30m/day drill, we could be looking at between 10-15 days of drilling until we reach 1200m - the first, maybe second week in August looks more likely on that basis. However, if they've found anything at around 700m, hopefully they will let us know next week.
Regardless, I'm confident in DM and the drill team to do the job properly, and trust them to provide an update (either good or bad) at the earliest opportunity.
Probably the best way I can think of explaining it (I don't want to teach granny to suck eggs, it is not my intention to do so) is:
Get a syringe which is half full of air. Stick your finger over it and push the plunger. Assuming the temperature stays the same, the total quantity of air hasn't changed, but the reduced volume has meant an increase in pressure, hence why it feels like the syringe wants to blow your finger off the end. Conversely, if you pull the plunger, again the total quantity of air hasn't changed but the pressure has dropped, hence feeling like there is a vacuum wanting to pull the end of your finger into the syringe. This is Boyle's law.
There are various other gas laws (e.g. Avogadro) which, when combined, result in the Ideal Gas Law (PV = nRT), but that's for another post!
I'm a mechanical engineer by trade. Boyle's Law states that pressure (P) and volume (V) have an inverse relationship, i.e. for a given quantity of gas, if the volume goes down the pressure increases, and vice-versa.
P1V1 = P2V2 = P3V3 etc.
The team will have a good idea about the expected available volume from the pre-drill seismic data etc.
You will need a geologist to confirm whether or not they expect the pressure to be greater lower down (I would expect so based on the weight of rock above it), and whether or not this can be estimated from the seismic data etc.
As of tomorrow evening, we will have completed 2 weeks of this first drill, and heading towards the business end of it. I wonder if, as they were super-cautious in the first week of drilling, whether they are on schedule to complete the drill in the next fortnight. However, DM's very public announcement that he was travelling to Tanzania bodes well IMHO.
It is good to know that commercially-viable concentrations of helium are present via the helium show in the mud on what is the first drill of the campaign. Looking forward to seeing if these are backed up with a helium discovery(ies) as the drill progresses - these will be the catalysts for SP movement.