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Notice of dispute - issued yesterday
Notice of arbitration - will be issued after no meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement
Arbitration - within 2 months of notice of arbitration
Still think we're 2-3 months away from issue of notice of arbitration, with arbitration itself to follow on within 2 months of that.
Love it - first working day of 2024 and the Notice of Dispute is issued.
I reckon either 60 or 90 days from issue to notice of arbitration, unless meaningful correspondence or amicable settlement is reached. From there, 2 months max to arbitration.
A very big 3-5 months ahead for Panthera!
Thanks Prof. I thought I was missing the little red dot...
I'm slightly surprised that we haven't heard that the notice of dispute has been issued to GoI by PAT, and am assuming that this hasn't happened yet. As a result, I expect the follow-on notice of arbitration will be issued at the end of Q1 at the earliest now. However, after 3 long years in this share, what's another 3 months?
Big H1 ahead for PAT in 2024.
@deck, something along these lines as a rough and ready calculation:
Lower, confirmed JORC resource of 1.74MOz
Gold in the ground value of $100/oz (5% of market value of gold/oz approx)
Value in the ground = $174M
Shares in issue 171M
Value/share $1.02 (80p, or 16 bags from current sp)
Same calcs for non-JORC 6.7MOz resource gives $3.92/share value (£3.07, or 60x current sp)
If you swap out the 'in ground' value of $100/Oz with market rate of approx. $2000/Oz, you can multiply the above numbers by another 20x.
In short, PAT is due a re-rate.
Yep, about 100m - I read on here that amount of drilling would be about right to recommission the broken part, but I'm no expert.
It'll be interesting to see if target depth is again revised, or if the seal will be perforated this time. We'll find out soon enough.
I think that Lorna is very aware of how rampy her predecessor was, and is trying to strike a more measured, cautious tone this time around. However, I watched the interview again, and agree that there were flickers of emotion at certain points when the helium shows were discussed. I'm also aware of my own conscious bias though.
We will see soon enough!
As we're doing tips, Panthera Resources (PAT) is worth a look. About to take the Indian Govt to arbitration under Australia-India Bilateral Investment Treaty. Legally fully funded, Faskens acting for Panthera. At some point in the next few weeks, Panthera is going to RNS the start of the proceedings against the Indian Govt and signal the amount they are looking at.
Allenby (broker) suggest this will resettle the sp at around 90% discount from the proposed award, and this is based on precedent with other companies who have gone through the process. Proposed award will be anything between 500m and 2bn, suggesting the sp is expected to settle between 32p and £1.28 while going through the process (current sp 6.5p).
Do your own research, usual caveats, etc.
Via Twitter:
Big Breaking 🚨🚨
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@Lawrence, I'd be highly surprised if we were negotiating an out of court settlement. The BIT case isn't complete yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if Panthera waited until after Bhukia's auction to come up with a final arbitration figure.
@Prof, you said that Mark is coming to the UK mid-month - do you have any further details on this please?