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Here is some news;
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/hindustan-zinc-jindal-power-jk-cement-in-race-with-others-for-two-gold-mines-in-rajasthan/articleshow/110113103.cms?from=mdr
"Ramgad Minerals and Mining Ltd, Hirakund Natural Resources Ltd, Jindal Power, Hindustan Zinc and Saiyyed Owais Ali have emerged as technically qualified bidders for Bhukia-Jagpura gold block in the desert state."
"According to the website, the auction of both the gold blocks will be held this week."
More than happy to have my money invested here :)
Thanks for the posting
It lools like Hindustan Zinc is the sensible winner.
Given the lack of competition i wonder how competative it will be.
Anyway at least they are moving on
Https://mines.rajasthan.gov.in/dmgcms/Static/files/Letter%20to%20MSTC%20reg%20TQB%20of%20Gold%20blocks.pdf
On the official government doc it states that 'the IPO of the technically qualified bidders will be opened on the due date i.e. 14/05/24
Oh and there are 5 bidders, not 4.
Very exciting news. It certainly makes no sense to me for PAT to be making any comments whatsoever during the auction process, never mind submitting the formal NOA.
We're on the cusp though, of that there is no doubt.
None of us on here expected an auction to take place this year, however it's undoubtedly good news
Jindal power are also large, so there are in my view 2 sensible companies. The others just get us over the minimum no bidders for an auction.
I cannot see any reason to comment while the auction is ongoing. This would only annoy the GOI and ultimately one day we may need to settle with them.
@Gallmat
Hirukund Natural Resources are a wholly owned subsidiary of Adani Enterprises, market cap IND 3.5t / £35b
https://www.constructionworld.in/energy-infrastructure/coal-and-mining/adani-enterprises-establishes-two-wholly-owned-coal-mining-subsidiaries/36116
Ramgad Minerals are part of the Baldota Group, who are a large mining conglomerate
https://baldota.co.in/uploads/csr/csrReport521505.pdf
Mr Saiyyed Owais Ali is the CEO of Owais Metal and Mineral Processing Limited, who IPO'd a couple of months ago
Looks highly competitive to me
To register their interest was 18k $ from memory.... means they're serious, and there are FIVE!
Was hoping @deck was gonna take one for the team and buy one 😂
Excellent sleuthing @sheer. Thx for sharing.
Keep your eyes peeled for bids from
Deck Mining Pty Ltd.
Thanks for the correction :)
I did a very loose search then!!, i am very happy to be wrong :)
So looks like we have 3 big companies including Hirukund Natural Resources
The other 2 are small i comparison. Hopefully enough for a bit of a bidding war
I was wondering if we need to raise anymore cash, it would come before the 'good news'?
Short term paper loss for some, but more chance of a higher return for the investors?
That was my main annoyance at the delay.
I can see us having to raise money before the news hits and doing it at a low price. Probably there are a core of loyal investors who do not mind and will get the cheap shares
I built my strategy on this being a Q1 reveal so that has not really worked out.
I am looking at montero and equatorial.
The stories are not as good but cases are more advances.
Pat are always a few months unfortunately. Not expecting the claim amount until the end of the year now, if that.
Disappointing but they do deliver in the end.
Gallmat, no offence but you don't half confuse me. Let's look at the facts of those two companies vs PAT
Both Equatorial & Montero are funding the cases themselves, i.e. no litigation funder thinks the risk reward is suitable enough to provide non recourse financing. That is a major red flag to me; nobody has done independent due diligence with all of the facts so you have to take what the company tells you at face value. LCM have funded GreenX, Indiana Resources & PAT in the last 3 years, if either Montero, but especially Equatorial (as it's Aussie), had been attractive I can't see why they wouldn't have funded them.
Montero's claim is for CAD$90m, which is just over £50m. . Indiana also have a dispute with Tanzania and won their case 10 months ago, they are still in dispute over payment and are valued at just 25% of the award amount right now. Consequently, Montero at a CAD9m market cap is hugely unattractive to me. They could win their case in 2 years and the market might double their share price. They also just raised CAD800k, have no cash and have multiple ongoing projects in Chile. So to me they have little upside potential, inevitable dilution and no independent verification.
Equatorial have filed a large claim, but again don't have funding, so the risk vs reward is immediately less attractive. There is a further problem of collecting the award if you don't have litigation backing. They spent A$1.5m on the Congo case in Q1, so whilst they have a decent cash balance of A$14m right now, the market will soon price in significant dilution to a A$19m cap. Time wise they are still years away from anything.
PAT is unique in the sense that it has significant litigation funding which wouldn't have been won if their case was weak. In the eyes of the lawyers, it's worth risking a lot of money on. The timeline is what it is, the upside potential more than makes up for any minor delays. And we obviously know why they didn't file in Q1...
You appear to be complaining about having your money tied up, yet at the same time are investing in two other cases where there are no obvious catalysts. It's really quite bizarre.
I think the loyal investors have always seen a fairly quick 20% return.
I think you said it recently Gall, rinse & repeat.
I personally don't know why the quantum won't be published sooner rather than later.could somebody explain the reasons why it won't?
( having said that, I think mb hinted a quide amount 'could'
be disclosed at pats discretion
Based on what @edhallas?
5 days ago you posted the below which you said was from the CEO;
"Subject to the details outlined in the RNS on 2 April, we expect to issue the Notice of Arbitration (NoA) in the near future with the Statement of Claim (containing the damages amount) to follow later in the year. We may however elect to included a damages estimate in the NoA, however, this is discretionary. "
Are you seriously telling me something changed since Monday?
Ditto Shears post.
My point is not that PAT is worse than others.
Mondero. Is close to the end. The goverment settled one case. Lost indiana. Good chance they will win and rerate.
Equatorial. Yes funding themselves. However their license was taken at same time as 3 other companies, and one of the main people impacted was funded by Burford, industry leader.
There is no harm in looking at other trades with rhe same theme. I also discussed these names with someone close to this space
One thing on equatorial. We only have 13m usd funding for a billion claim. Their cash balance is close to what we have from litigation funder
They may need to raise for opex. But so might we and we have a longer way to go.
400m usd to 10m usd is still a rerate story and alot happens in the end
I think you can imply why the valuation will not be released.
The presentations show we have been blocked many times. And the compensation is for the time of expropriation. There are many scenarios to analyse.
Damages are linked to scenarios. A rational economic agent will use all the time available to analyse scenarios and maximise shareholder value.
There of course is a tradeoff if you need to raise money, but waiting is 100% rational and not a sign of a problem or mishandling.
One other correction. The headline number for indiana. I am not sure they have 100pct interest in award. They have a complicated holding structure, so maybe getting 70pct.
They also would not confirm if corporation tax was due on the award by email. So at this point i ignored the trade.
Both factors combined can really reduce the reward
I just think you're comparing apples and oranges. GreenX and Indiana are the two logical comparisons here because they are both funded by LCM & have seen their valuations re rate substantially as the timeline has moved on.
Any company can theoretically self fund their own arbitration case, the two you have shared are absolute punts compared to a case with litigation funding.
Cassius Mining is another ASX listed listed small cap that is self funding a $300m case against Ghana. All looked positive until Ghana won the argument of where to host the case (it's going to be in Ghana, not London). You can guess how the share price reacted.
In my opinion that is par for the course with self funded cases, more often than not they are half baked & the market won't be aware of most of the key facts.
Having an independent third party review the facts of your case in the cold light of the law & decide to provide $13.6m in non recourse is a huge vote of confidence. It's assurance that the facts line up & that they believe the case has a better chance of success than 90%+ alternatives.
There are no guarantees of course & we could certainly do with a full update once the auction process has concluded.
Https://www.researchgate.net/publication/380178546_Exploration_for_Gold_and_Associated_Base_Metal_Mineralisation_in_Bhukia_Area_Banswara_District_Rajasthan
This article is dated April 2024..it seems to confirm the over 7 million oz of gold.
Pretty sure we will base our claim on the 7.3 with about another 0.7 implied from copper.
I would expect there is another 2 to 3m. Ceo said 10 to 20m oz was guess. Normally some at depth