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I think this is all rational.If you are/ might negotiate.
You do not want to release some big claim. That hits the indian press and it makes discussions more difficult.
Also GOI needs to see who is interested and how much they can raise. We also need to know thier position
Negotiations can only start when both sides know their situation, and you want to discuss without this getting political ( as much as possible)
1) So this I think suggests they are indeed at the round table
2) We are saying to them, we need fair compensation as per below - if they don't, we go to arbitration
3) Even if you take, for argument sake, a minimum compensation of £150m, this would be £1
GLA
"provisions were included in the Act to reimburse parties for expenditures incurred. Under the Treaty, IGPL is entitled to fair and equitable compensation, not merely reimbursement of expenditures.
The acts and omissions by Rajasthan and India, culminating in the enactment of MMDR2021 and the dismissal in September 2023 of MMI's writ petition, amount to breaches by India of its obligations under the Treaty, including but not limited to, Article 3 (Promotion and Protection of Investments), Article 4 (Treatment of Investments) and Article 7 (Expropriation and Nationalisation). IGPL will be seeking damages from India".
Some may recall that I was confused by the Q1 deadline, as the treaty says that they have 6 months to negotiate before arbitration can be announced.
PAT insisted that there was no time limit or requirement, and they were simply being courteous.
From the treaty:
"If a dispute between the Contracting Parties cannot thus be settled within six months of one Contracting Party receiving a request in writing for such negotiations or consultations, it shall upon the request of either Contracting Party be submitted to an arbitral tribunal"
So it seems we're on track for my June estimate after all, as our notice of dispute was 2nd Jan 2024. Seems like they've made an obvious mistake in communications here.
This is what i expected.
They kept their word Q1 update
If there are negotiations they are confidential
The treaty asks for a period of negotiation so they are resepecting that.
Most likely they are waiting for auction. Why release damages until you see that. You dont want to under shoot
Sounds like a 14 day (or similar) letter has been issued...hence 'promptly'.
You have to read between the lines, if India had stonewalled Faskens/LCM/PAT then surely the NoA would have been filed. LCM have similar experience in the GreenX Metals case vs Poland and Poland blanked everything. LCM aren't amateurs.
I'd imagine that any discussions with India will be under strict NDA, so even disclosing that there had been a response could be difficult. That's why we have got the cryptic RNS this morning.
Hold for gold IMO.
Not sure why you were triggered by this RNS 5to.
I read the following into it.
1. Good shareholder comms - They are keeping us up to date as we roll out the quarter.
2. "If the efforts at settlement prove ineffective, IGPL will promptly deliver a notice of arbitration to GoI" - so there is a comms channel in play otherwise the NoA would have been issued. Whether the comms channel is real and has the possibility to lead to an agreement, or just a correspondence rebuffing it over a time period we cant know, but something is happening. I suspect the latter and for me, the tone of the note also infers this, but good to see they are taking the time to update in some manner that they arent asleep at the wheel.
Surely they’d be obligated to at least mention they’ve had a response for India?
Hmm. Doesn't this suggest that they are potentially in negotiations though? IMO it's all tied to the 2nd May auction date, clearly if they sell Bhukia to a 3rd party then any 'amicable' settlement is impossible.
Always remember that this process is being driven by Fasken's & LCM, LCM don't give a company $13.6m in funding and then let them interminably drag out the process.
Reading between the lines, a settlement prior to the auction date now looks possible.
If India have received strong interest in the pre auction process and are confident in a bid of >$1b then paying us a significant % of that would seem to make a lot of sense.
Either way, the end of the beginning is very close, imagine selling now and missing out a £1 share settlement agreement!
It’ll be too late to sell I imagine, probably open about 5p
Seems like they posted an old RNS. WTF is this?
Basically they haven’t had any response and still aren’t taking further action. I’m getting out.
So what's new?
Oops..a few after pub typos in last post!...
Hey, heres my take on Iamrich ..swung by , skimmed over rns info but his thoughts in ...and swung off. To be fair you have to do a fair bit if research on pat to understand the dynamics.
Out of interest. Did they go to arbitration? And did the price rise as they go through the court case.
I am interested in the stock reaction, not the final.result
Thanks rich
Can you share the names of the stocks so i can research them
@ iamrich maybe it will go all the way..but that's still not a given .
Last rns said something like if no significant communication from GoI in first qtr we will start BIT process.
Pat have plenty of other of irons in the fire. As a matter of interest what other shares are you referring to that folded ?
I have seen a couple of AIM stocks have the same issue with india in the past, India is corrupt to the core and they will not be going for a settlement this easy, This will drag on for years, Anyone think India will just roll over and pay us money is very naive indeed, follow the rns's does india look like they are playing ball or actually fking off PAT,
Come on guys stop this sillyness this aint going no where but the arbitration courts which will again take about a year to get to and then probably last 18 months and then hang on for about 12 months before decision is made, I have seen this with other shares here which folded at the end
Gallant
IF a raise is done, I reckon it will be announced when the share price has shot up to 50p!
I think the news might be next week.
GLA
Maybe Ed they are doing a deal on an early settlement...who knows!
I can't remember the last time we met two deadlines in a row, but management do deliver. Still one day left if they want to release on schedule. If not, won't be long regardless.
I just hope we aren't playing cat and mouse with the auction date intentionally.
Yes..to a point I think some might say they (PAT)are often a bit late.
Yup. Might be a rinse and repeat. Fair game.
How arw comms in general here do we normally miss deadlines
Last posted trade was probably from last placing..at 5p...they made 30% ..reckon they could have made more if they had waited abit longer..but 30% is not to be sniffed at I suppose.