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Any of you fellas getting nervous about results—unless I missed something, I was September when they last published anything concrete?
Are you getting nervous? What do you think of CF's recent comments about the results?
Trying hard to resist what must be "international start your own thread day", i have to come clean and inform everyone that I already know the conclusion of the results. They will be; Holders 1 (read as won) = Non-holders nil. :)
Seem to remember CF saying recently ( Q&A session) something along the lines of ...he is not going to over emphasis results going forward, but will blow the lights out later in the year ( presumably, after he is allowed to buy more OO shares).
So the fact he wants to buy more shares asap, and will blow the lights out later, I would think OO is a buy.
My reply to Guygad was based on the fact that to me he was just stirring - it wasn't a genuine questioning.
The price now and the price in six months will be radically different in investors favour.
Watch the large contracts get announced. The Government partnerships deepen as the two progress the facilities trade. Will also have a couple of spin offs kick in. Low risk and high reward allows you to go overweight a stock.
We are in a vaccine and anti viral secular bull market we have years of growth to realise. Then add in some very smart acquisitions. Sit back and watch the compound returns hit your portfolio. Inside two years you are looking at treble to quadruple and most likely significantly more....
We have both been in TILS. We know what being d1cked around really is...
The process of spin outs are taking place and we are seeing concrete steps - unlike the Accustem fiasco.
The facilities are now fully booked eighteen months in advance and will be aimed to be fully booked two years ahead.
We have moved to three facilities and with the Government behind us we get a fourth when we need it. The size of the contracts will increase with it. Rev wise going forward the bread and butter should be very strong.
Then there is DIM. As stated before Livongo got bought for billions by Teledoc just off data. We have the largest infectious disease database in the world. It is only growing as the testing we do feeds further into system - adding continually to value.
Once he gives the push for what is in pipeline we are off to races. We have a further ten to fifteen trading days that are probably infuriating. Then we get the results uplift.
Even if he wants to buy shares. He wants his stock supported and the story out there as the shareholders are getting tetchy. CF does not want to kill momentum going forward. As a Venture capitalist knows it is hard to resuscitate if he really p155e5 the market off.
Have to agree with Indy. We will see some S/T SP nonesense on results. I get the feeling that the MM's are shaping it that way. Just depends in which order CF a makes news announcements pre or post results.
Flipping annoying at the moment as we really should be around 45p+.
I'm not stirring--am a shareholder of long standing. Asking because it's a reasonable question.
And I'm the Queen of England.
Just stay with an amount you are comfortable with. One that you are not going to be awake at night over. We got a multi year bull market here as long as interest rates don't kill us.
I think the inflation problem should kick in a little later. However we are posting good revenue increases and should see it extend further.
A reasonable question guygad, but do you mean nervous about the delay in producing the results or about the contents? They were about -£5m at half time, so no-one except the ultra-positive are expecting anything other than a small loss, so it's just a case of how small. Last year is anvient history really though, mostly pre-transformation, so market will probably be more interested in the recent trajectory and forward looking statements.
Cathal recently said not to get excited about results. I'd guess maybe minus £2-3m. The forward looking statement is more important to me and hopefully it will contain another couple of interesting soundbites
He did mention that we would be pleasantly surprised.
said that a while back mark and your right, for me nothing to get excited about, I'm more interested in the forward looking statement as yourself and others should be.
he did say that in one interview then more recently he said not to expect too much. I think there were a few contracts (like the government one) where they can in effect pick which year some or all of the revenue/profit is assigned to, so perhaps he is thinking it is better to 'give' more to 2021-22 as he gears up to sell the company.
Can anyone familiar with accounting confirm they are able to do that?
I'm still expecting a FY20 loss of -£5m or -£6m on 21st June, anything else would be a massive shock considering we reckon CF is likely to put larger contracts towards FY21 for accounting to show a decent profit.
He has decent revenue kicking in now. Most likely revenue may get split. I would imagine bulk realised for after results as better to realise it this year so we get one bumper increase.
Han**** at the Select Committee commenting that he is dealing with monkey virus and other outbreaks. Then mentioning that Government is concentrating in these areas to safeguard our future. Looks that our services are more than appreciated.
Government and OO working very tightly. Government in post Brexit Britain really seeing pharma services and biotech as key growth market. This is an area where both can win.
BlahBlahDoh... not nervous, or not very nervous, otherwise i would have sold down to zero. (I sliced my holdings a month ago so I'm long since in profit in the name regardless of what happens.) It's more a question of capital maintenance that any investor should ask of all of their holdings. ORPH is a £241m market cap that has performed astonishingly well and has excellent prospects for the future but we've not seen anything in terms of numbers for 9 months.
Guygad, I didn't suggest you were nervous, I asked what you meant by asking others if they were nervous. It seems your reason for anxiety is to do with the results not being published yet. No, I don't think anyone is "nervous" about that, as we wouldn't expect them to be published until later in the month.
He answers it all here, worth listening to again . https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrP4w9athkg
Thats my understanding that Orph will be worth 1Bn on its own. The spin offs are in addition.
My understanding is that over the longer-term OO will become a $1 billion business, trading as it does today.
Short term, the 4 /5 SPACS will be rolled out, and one in particular SPAC ( DiM) has the potential to be larger than OO !
He recently stated that all Spacs will be spun out before year end 21 .....ok, maybe first quarter next year with slippage.
Therefore, using his forecasts all the SPACs will be history early next year...and OO will continue to grow substantially over the longer term, say two years into a £B company.
So my understanding is the SPACS are a ( very welcome) side show, to his longer term plans for OO.
Don't get too excited, I can't remember which interview it was but he said £1 billion taking spin offs into account. Who knows how well they are going to take off though, could be a lot more...
To be honest, I have a feeling he has probably stated both over the many interviews, but it was actually reported here, by a third party.
"In a media interview today, Open Orphan’s CEO, Cathal Friel, said that its valuation could surpass $1 billion soon given the huge interest that the challenge study has attracted from major pharmaceutical companies."
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/open-orphan-shares-rally-7-on-ethics-approval-of-covid-19-human-challenge-trial/