Utilico Insights - Jacqueline Broers assesses why Vietnam could be the darling of Asia for investors. Watch the full video here.
Wall Street Journal podcast on 3 Sept 2021 covers the story of Jake Hopkins, the PhD student who intentionally got infected with Covid for Hvivo's (Open Orphans) challenge trial. Great international business coverage [The Journal.] The Man Who Chose to Get Covid #theJournal
https://podcastaddict.com/episode/127997815
Open Orphan is in the right place at the right time from a macro perspective. Massive opportunities for all shareholders in this company. See piece in The Grauniad today: "The Carbis Bay declaration will set out the steps G7 countries will take to prevent a future pandemic. These include slashing the time taken to develop and license vaccines, treatments and diagnostics for any future disease to fewer than 100 days, a commitment to reinforce global surveillance networks and genomic sequencing capacity and support for reforming and strengthening the World Health Organization.
To stop animal-borne diseases before they put people at risk, the UK will establish a UK animal vaccine manufacturing and innovation centre at the Pirbright Institute in Surrey.
The centre will draw on Pirbright’s world-leading expertise to accelerate the delivery of vaccines for livestock diseases. These diseases pose a risk to people if they mutate to become transmissible to humans and can devastate agriculture in the UK and internationally. The UK has contributed £10m of funding for the centre.
The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, said: “In the last year the world has developed several effective coronavirus vaccines, licensed and manufactured them at pace and is now getting them into the arms of the people who need them.
“But to truly defeat coronavirus and recover we need to prevent a pandemic like this from ever happening again. That means learning lessons from the last 18 months and doing it differently next time around.
The Carbis Bay declaration will be agreed upon by leaders today and published tomorrow alongside the G7 Summit Communique.
Dr Tedros Adhanom, the director-general of the World Health Organization, said: “We welcome the Carbis Bay health declaration, particularly as the world begins to recover and rebuild from the Covid-19 pandemic. Together we need to build on the significant scientific and collaborative response to the Covid-19 pandemic and find common solutions to address many of the gaps identified.”
I'm still expecting a FY20 loss of -£5m or -£6m on 21st June, anything else would be a massive shock considering we reckon CF is likely to put larger contracts towards FY21 for accounting to show a decent profit.
Piece in the Financial Times today makes the point about healthcare data and using AI to find statistically significant trends. Something I imagine Disease In Motion would be particularly useful for. Not sure if this website allows links but it's at: ft dot com/content/376a5494-7237-4ed6-a528-5e45712c148d
"We are now seeing a mad rush to gain access to patient and hospital data and turn AI loose upon it. Last week’s deal that will see Google store HCA’s data and help the US hospital chain develop healthcare algorithms is one example. The UK NHS’s plan to consolidate 55m patient primary care records into a single database is another. Global fundraising for AI health start-ups has risen steadily since the end of 2019 and hit a new record of $2.5bn in the first quarter, says CB Insights."
"In some ways, healthcare is following financial services. The 2008 financial crisis forced bankers to invest in better data collection and analysis to improve risk monitoring. The sector then started finding other ways to exploit it. Healthcare has been slow to the data party, in part because so much of it is collected in ways that are hard to consolidate: in conversations, in different locations and using non-standard measurements and formats. Just having an electronic healthcare record system isn’t enough: it needs to be comprehensive and searchable."
“In a world where data is flowing in constantly [we need] something non-human to manage it,” says Robert Wachter, professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, and author of The Digital Doctor."
"Big cloud services providers such as Microsoft and Google are competing for this valuable business by offering healthcare users a growing range of services. Microsoft recently bought Nuance, a clinical intelligence service that translates doctor-patient visits into usable data. In studies, it let cardiologists see 24 per cent more patients a day by cutting administrative tasks."
"Google has found potential in prediction: last year, it worked with HCA to build an online portal that combined data on Covid tests, hospital admissions and ventilator use from facilities across the US and used AI to track pandemic hotspots, anticipate surges and warn local officials. The new data deal could take such efforts beyond Covid."
"Medical researchers think that AI mining of primary care records could revolutionise work on slow-moving diseases like dementia, Parkinson’s and heart failure. Previously, the need for repeated interviews made large, long-term studies prohibitively expensive and participants dropped out. “The public benefits are indisputable,” says Cathie Sudlow, who directs the British Heart Foundation’s data science centre. “It is impractical to conduct this kind of research without this kind of access.”
Ah, thanks Prudent. Maybe in Q3 September then.
Afternoon all. As far as I am aware, ORPH will be promoted into the AIM 100 (100 largest companies by market cap listed on AIM) in June, given its ~£250m market cap. New entrants are admitted every quarter I believe (one of the clued-up poster on this board may be able to give more precise dates for this). I imagine this will bring ORPH an even higher profile and better liquidity & may put us on the radar of much larger institutional investors both here in the UK and overseas. Exciting times as far as I can see. Any downsides to being on AIM 100?
Cheers WG, makes a bit of a mockery of the idea from Padrock who says he's posing legitimate questions, then refuses to email Investor Relations to get an actual answer because "they wouldn't respond". Well they did. Happier now?
To be honest Desert she is not bothered by day to day or week to week or even month to month prices, she has done the ORPH research herself and occasionally checks in but isn't obsessed by the markets like I am, I have a lot to learn from her, still!
I would agree, the last few weeks have been frustrating, especially after advising my wife to buy in at around 38p I look a bit silly at the moment (although I've been in a lot longer, first bought in May 2020, and have averaged up with a few grand here and there to just over 150000 shares). More recently I bought a few thousand at the very top, around 46, then again at 42, then again at 37/8, so those buys are underwater for me. What I keep coming back to though, despite the relative radio silence from CF is that I believe in the company long term, and I'm not willing to give up my 150000 shares now, because I think the SP will be much higher in 18 months time. I've not invested cash I need for anything else, so I don't have to sell if I don't need to, so I feel it's worth me sitting on my hands for that time and waiting out the peaks and troughs. Whenever I've tried to be clever and daytrade I've always lost money selling too soon or holding on too long because I didn't really have any conviction in a stock, I was only following price action. What was it Edwin Lefevre said in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator? "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"
Getting a bit ahead of yourself considering the last contract was Covid related and only worth £3m, not £10m. Anyone expecting us to be in profit for FY2020 is going to be sorely disappointed. I'm expecting about a £6m-£7m loss.
Sorry it was RNS'd in Nov 2020 not May 2020, my mistake
I believe this is the £2.5m flu challenge study RNS'd in May last year with SAB Biotherapeutics. I could be wrong but the dates would seem to match up (at the time the client was reported as an 'unnamed US biotech', with a start date of mid 2021 and end date of near the end of 2021). Still, good to see this work progressing.
I lol'd at this so thanks for giving me a laugh. Thinking the same myself tbh. Only you can answer that question Mr Fox, but you know cash will be eroded by inflation and it's pretty likely you'll get a tidy return on any new investment if you can tuck it away in ORPH for 6-12 months.
Having missed the last chance to top up before we hit the 40s, I'd love to see the short-termists take a hike and bring the price back down into the mid-late 30s so I can dump the rest of my 2021 ISA allowance into ORPH. I've been in for nearly a year at this point and I'm accumulating as long as CF sticks around to make my family richer!
Forgive me if I'm just out of the loop with new fangled technology but I don't see the point of a Telegram group. Isn't it just an echo-chamber for confirmation bias? Where are there going to be contrary views? Despite all the excitement around ORPH (and yes, like you, it makes up around 70% of my PF) we do need opposing views to reign in the optimism sometimes.
Thanks for posting T3. A well written article and I believe the author is also a handsome chap who is kind to animals ;)
Presentation is available on YouTube as a livestream - you have to go back from the end as Cathal appeared on second after United Oil and before Jade Investments but the link is here https://youtu.be/eyPksoILpxo
Hi all. Long time lurker, first time poster. Like a lot of you I'm balls deep in OO and significantly overweight compared to the rest of my portolio. I was just wondering about future valuations for Open Orphan, given what's coming up at this company. I've read that CROs are valued at around 2.7x revenue & 16x EBITDA. I can't source any similar statistics for revenue/EBITDA multiples to value data or healthcare data services businesses -- which I assume Data In Motion will be. I have heard 9 times revenue somewhere but I can't recall where. I've read and learned a lot from the likes of PeterS23, Trader3, extrader and a lot more, I'm really impressed with this board & hopefully you can help me understand what a fair valuation for OO might be in future. Cheers.