GreenRoc Accelerates their World Class Project to Production as Early as 2028. Watch the full video here.
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Made some notes during the webinar just now. Was struggling to keep up at times so please correct any mistakes or add anything I missed. Very positive overall still, sounds like we just need a bit more patience for some of the big developments.
Intro with regard to share price:
- Reiterated aim of 50% SP growth every 6 months or 100% every 12 months
- Institutions top sliced for 20 - 30% gain in some cases, but there is no big seller. Some 'great' institutions still on board
- CF still unable to sell his stake, locked in for further two years
Main presentation:
- Now generating cash, no more losses in H2 2020
- Virtually every large vaccine producer is either former or current customer of ORPH
- CF believes we are at the start of a decade of focus on vaccines and 'vaccine growth'. "Exceptional" growth forecast for next five to ten years
- Cash balance growing, interims out in week to ten days from now
- "Don't get too excited" about interims as they cover H1
- Hvivo clinic will be fully booked for up to two years in advance, in a month or two from now, and the company will be looking for additional quarantine clinic space
- Emphasised again, no more fundraises
- Aiming for one contract per month, would "put a smile on CF's face" if he can stick to that, hinted at least one more to come in September
- Slide said "there is a possibility" for 6 covid challenge study contracts this year and a further 6 next year
- "Pretty darn close to announcing something" with regard to challenge studies for Covid, great progress being made
- Early next summer there will be multiple vaccines for Covid but only effective for one year
- World's largest database of disease progression data, getting interest from wearable health tracker manufactuters. ORPH is actively working with them, expecting to announce before the end of the year a licensing deal for this data with one of the big players - approach from wearables manufacture was unexpected
- Prospect pipeline remains at £160m, CF said "watch this space"!
- Expecting significantly higher cash balance at Christmas. Any excess cash will be handed back to shareholders
- Target for end of year for sale or listing of Imutex and PrepBiopharm
Questions
Can you convince a new investor why they should invest in ORPH at this level when every bit of news gets sold into? If IIs don't believe in the company, why should we? Should you have had a few big shareholders rather than multiple IIs with relatively smaller holdings?
--- IIs are not selling out completely, they are just top slicing. Not a lack of confidence in what we are doing, they are keeping the bulk of their shares. SP has almost tripled in 6 months. Holders can trade in and trade out if they want, but sellers at 13p or 14p might regret it by Xmas. Judge ORPH by results, not by selling activity
"Sensational news coming soon" mentioned in previous presentation - any update?
--- Watch this space, more news to come. Timescales condensed, what normally takes two years we've done in five months
Imutex - any update in last couple of months? what is the most likely scenario, i.e. cash sale or Nasdaq listing?
--- 6 month process from July, aiming for before Christmas for outcome. CF didn't really elaborate on most likely outcome, Nasdaq vs sale, just "one or the other"
How many of existing 10k records are available on database for interested parties to purchase?
--- "Vastly more than 10k" records available. 5 biggest companies in wearable space have been invited to bid - highest bidder obviously wins. Guideline for pre-Christmas for "very positive" announcement here. The aim is to keep generating as much additional revenue from database beyond wearable licensing. CF was very optimistic regarding the potential.
What has been the response on Quotient testing ?
--- response is pretty good. "Read the news today" (?)
Any concern about ethical coverage of challenge studies? Any regulatory hurdles expected?
--- Not particularly. Business is heavily regulated. 'Watch this space' in next few weeks. Very much work in progress and very much coming close to a positive resolution
Any updates on Prepbio?
--- Work in progress, 64% ownership for ORPH, looking for disposal by Xmas
Bloody hell wallyj, your shorthand is good
Had a lot of practice watching Open Orphan presentations!
Wallyi, I'm still trying to read my notes and you have typed the presentation !!
Well done and thank you for saving me the trouble and effort of typing out my effort as I would have still been at at midnight! Cheers TOB
Thanks to all for the notes/feedback. Hopefully not too long to see real news flow.
His comment about 'read the news today' is saying the government are having to use them as they lack the capacity otherwise.
Was worried with his maths, 50% SP rise every 6 months is 125% year on year, not 100%
No real mention of selling ORPH anymore, he talked a lot more in terms of "years". You presume he has seen too much long term potential here and is happy with the idea of significant dividends along the way
Thanks for this
My feeling is that he has moved on from a quick sale of ORPH more towards using it as the traded vehicle to buy struggling businesses turn them round and then sell on followed by a distribution of excess cash. Just my opinion, it's what I would do in his position and it's the vibe I've got for a few months now; time will tell.
Wallyi, Excellent ! Big Thank you for doing that.
wally
Feckin hell, that’s impressive, thank you.
Coronavirus: WHO says weekly cases in Europe eclipse March peak https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54189575
Coronavirus: Test demand 'significantly outstripping' capacity https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54194302
I already said that yesterday and this morning"re testing"..and if I posted a negative view like Deepjoy had today I'd have been shot down in flames..some of you guys are unreal and self obsessed...as for Deepjoy you're definitely one sandwich short of a picnic...
Someone get a tissue, moanymans crying again
I'm thinking of changing my username to "Deepmoaner"
Nice thank you Wally, Don't need to go and watch it now but I will anyway, CF is a great salesman!
Love the highest bidder wins, that could get interesting.
100% a year, Done it so far and happy to hold for as long as that goes on.
GLA
Moniman.
To claim Deepjoy was 'negative' is to oversimplify his comments.
He was - in part - critical while remaining constructive.
'Constructive' being a key element.
true to my word I didnt listen last night but, to whoever got that question asked about the II's investment behaviour and share register outlined in wally's summary (Demon perhaps?) thank you ! glad some of the concerns were put to Cathal it needed to be said and he gave an answer of sorts at least. Lets see what the next three months bring then, he has committed to a three month (December) timeline so easier to judge progress now.
Yes, Deepjoy, the first question of the night was mine. I felt he needed to be challenged in a constructive way, to be fair to him, he answered it rather well. I was prodding him a tad and he did bite by saying they may live to regret it come Xmas. CF is top notch, I've not came across a more genuine and accountable leader in all my time in stock trading. He did ask for patience so he deserves that from us. Onwards and upwards. GLA
Thumbs up.
Great opening question.
Well big thanks from me to you Demon ... best wishes DJ
Cheers all, glad the notes were useful.
Agreed Weathergeek, very interested to see how the wearables licensing turns out.
Just had another quick listen to the wearables part of his Proactive interview from a few weeks ago, all sounds very promising:
"We knew our data would be valuable but we never realised how valuable"
"One or two wearables brands have approached us"
"We are the only company globally that can provide this data"
"We will do a deal with just one of the companies" (i.e. exclusive rights)
"One off deal option to the highest bidder for data, for use solely in wearable health trackers"
Add that to Imutex, challenge studies, Prepbio and everything else, and Q4 looks very exciting for ORPH.
Reading between the lines, the wearables data sale doesn't seem to have progressed - CF still apparently doesn't know if it was "one" or "two" companies who approached him? (@: The main attraction of this data to this one (or two) companies seems to be that it is in a format suitable for apps, or close to such a format. If it was just a casual approach from a single company, then there must be a possibility that there may not be any bidders, and maybe they were just enquiring about the precise nature of the data, to assess if it was suitable for their purposes.
More positively, this interesting sideline is effectively a bonus: there is no real downside if this prospective business fails to materialise. If it does come off, it will be the first financial fruits of the original genesis project of OO: data aggregation and mining.
The data is of significant value [financially] regardless of how it's monetized.
What's very clear, we're now very close to seeing the data work for the Co through wearables or other means.