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Gallmat - I think you have to be very careful listening to the output of posters like Jigger who are clearly working to a ramping/deramping agenda.
If you look back at his posts here, he was overwhelmingly bullish until quite recently. Then as if someone had flicked a switch, he started posting highly selective negative content. Nothing in the Ondo business changed over this time, but his motives clearly did.
Following people with an agenda can be very damaging to your wealth.
Agreed.
Especially in the US where I believe a bid will come to buy us out.
Insurance companies are the way forward water companies have many bigger issues ie they need to detect water leakages before it gets to a household as they are liable for that repair if it’s on private land then the land owner or house owner is liable insurance companies will take these up and are taking them up
Just my take on it
I don 't know the history on the other poster. But portsmouth saying they are only interested in 2500 units over such a long period is not great.
They do validate leakbot but essentially say smart meters are a good route to solve the issue.
All excellent points Magee. You clearly have a more detailed and balanced understanding of Ondo than Jigger.
I noticed that on the Ondo Telegram group, Jigger was highly disruptive, engaging in blatant deramping activity.
His ‘research’ was so selective that people started parodying him. He didn’t take this at all well, and when his highly unethical behaviour was challenged he bailed out from the group knowing a ban was imminent.
The Ondo Telegram group is very well informed, and the consensus from the active participants was that as a deramper Jigger should be ejected from the group.
He does not engage with other posters, and respond to their rebuttals of his claims. He simply broadcasts negative ‘research’.
I would take anything Jigger says with a massive shovel load of salt.
Furthermore in response to Jigger who is attempting to be very selective with what he posts.
Portsmouth Water
You allude to them preferring smart meters yet they themselves, in the report you posted say:
"We carried out a trial with 1,000 customer households in which
we provided home leak alarm devices, ‘Leakbots’. The trial
demonstrated an overall saving of 30 litres per person per day
through a combination of leak detection (found in 24 per cent
of homes) and nine litres per person per day through high use
alerts – attributed to internal plumbing losses. We plan to offer
2,500 devices to customers during 2025-30 to help reduce leaks
and save water in households ahead of the transition to smart
meters for all."
So just as I just said, they themselves are:
A) Agreeing Leakbot is a VERY useful tool
B) It is so useful that they themselves will be buying them
Way to prove how good the product is, and to show how it will take years for water smart meters to be installed 👍
H2Know
So a similar product yes, that uses accoustics instead of temperature to achieve the same thing. Yes there is a question as to which is better, which is a combo of cost and sensitivity (my money is on thermocouples being way cheaper and more robust than acoustic equipment).
But did you click on the link you posted? Wheras Ondo is signing contracts and is at a consumer sales stage, H2Know seems to be at proof of concept stage - so way behind
Title changed to a more appropriate one than the one Jigger is trying to force (btw he is a known deramper of the share for months now)
To address the smart meter angle, the company is called Ondo INSURtech. Water companies are an angle the company is pursuing yes, but the primary focus is and always has been insurance companies.
Despite being around for ages now, only just over half of homes in the UK have smart electric meters and installing smart water meters will take an awful lot longer. In that time insurers will have spent billions on water damage claims.
There is however a solution (Ondo) that is proven in trials to immediately help, so much so insurers are giving away both the product and money (in the form of discounts) for free to their clients.
So why would they wait for some long drawn out smart meter revolution in the future when they can send out a cheap, clip on, awesome device and start saving money literally instantly.
Even if smart water meters are deemed to be the future, even the water companies are realising that you might aswell ship these out to plug the gap and what will ONDO will do in that time? Bank loads of cash for share holders.
The argument just doesn't make sense to me. I wonder if someone somewhere is kicking themselves as they 14 years ago told their friends not to invest in Electric cars like Tesla as Hydrogen was the future so they should ignore that stock. Sure, hydrogen could be the future but that doesn't mean the world won't churn out EVs till then
As an investment, even if you're a hard core believer that smart meters are the future amd this product will become obsolete it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realise how small the company currently is and how few % of households need to take this up to significantly multibag your money
You're talking like its an end stage product that's already peaked lol
In the interims there were 84 000 registered users on the platform. Agreed, frustrating that in the trading update there weren't more numbers but just spend 5 minutes looking and you can see:
-There was confirmation that by next month all 6000 of the SW Water units will have shipped.
-In January they announced that 7500 units were to be shipped to Denmark by end of March
So those two small, confirmed contracts have added 16% growth to the interims numbers.
And that doesn't include:
-Lansforsakringar now rolling out all over Sweden
-Nationwide starting to roll out in Ohio
-Selective rolling out in New Jersey
Imo if you can't separate company performance from share price performance, especially in a stock with this little liquidity - these kinds of stocks aren't for you in the first place
Thanks for this.
I think the company really does need to address this directly in their presentations.
If leakbot is superior we will see lots of deployment. I am going to wait for some confirmation.
The point made on the last placing is not uncommon. New broker appointed.. check the cash position.
Here are two potential disadvantages to using smart water meters:
Low mobile signal affects performance: Some smart water meters communicate through mobile networks. If the area has a low mobile signal, this could affect data transfer to the service provider.
Not yet supported by all service providers: As of now, not all utility companies and municipalities, the world-over, are able to support smart water meters.
CHALLENGES IN SMART WATER METERING
Although there are many benefits and opportunities the smart metering delivers, the adoption is very slow due to high costs, technology limitations, regulatory frameworks, and others.
Major drawbacks include;
High deployment and maintenance costs
Lack of sufficient infrastructure to support smart metering
Lack of skills
Interoperability issues
Weak communication signals in some locations
Power cabling challenges in confined and remote locations
Limited network reach
Despite the benefits of wireless technologies, there could be a few challenges, especially with meters installed in the basements or locations with weak signals. Also, the lack of compatible devices is a challenge if existing wired or wireless infrastructure does not support the transmission technologies
Just some of the disadvantages to be overcome for smart meters
Thanks for the post. I am not trying to put down the business just highlight potential explanations for price declines.
Companies short of cash are getting hammered so just looking at the story and ignoring the balance sheet is dangerous.
If i saw big orders coming in yup.i would jump all over this stock. But with a shortage of capital i feel there is no rush to get in.
On a positive note. If they get traction even for few years they have a massive opportunity which dwarfs the share price.
I think this is my key worry.
Water companies want smart meters, if they can do even a 70pct replication of leakbot that is enough.
Someone will run an algorithm over the data and the companies will not need to be bothered with additional devices.
Ondo really need to address the competition item head on. Especially if a company they work with are saying they have a better idea
Just one example below of more competition for Ondo. 👇
‘H2know takes measurements from your pipe every second and uses our patented technology and machine learning approach to translate those signals to accurate water flow estimates, leak alerts, and water insights.’
https://conservationlabs.com/
- No plumber & no pipe cutting required
- Significant Investors & Insurance Partners
- US based with recent $7.5 million funding
With regards to your point on Smart Meters – you may find the below interesting 👇
Smart meters, AI and a saturated market
It appears that Ondo may suffer from the ‘law of unintended consequences.’
Portsmouth Water Business Plan 2025 to 2030
Benefits of a smart metering programme…
… ‘We’ve opened a dialogue with insurance companies, some of whom already offer leak detection devices (such as the ‘Leakbot’ already mentioned) in return for lower household insurance premia. Smart meters would perform a similar function, avoiding the need for new devices.’
https://www.portsmouthwater.co.uk/downloads/pr24/PRT01-excellence-in-water-always.pdf
So Portsmouth Water are now looking into marketing Smart Meters to Ondo’s core insurance market, as a potential alternative to Ondo’s Leakbot.
Obviously, Leakbot and Smart Meters are different devices. In my opinion, Leakbot offers a far superior service and benefit to households in water leak prevention.
However, your average retail householder won’t know the difference and won’t be bothered, providing they think a (any) device detects leaks and it saves them money on their home insurance.
(Just google ‘water leak detection devices’ and look at the products list. There are thousands out there!)
IMHO
The current position 👇
The last reported official Operating Expenses were running at circa £316,000 a MONTH up to the 6 month period ending Sept’23.
The latest trading update didn’t provide either operating expenses or liabilities, only the 0.4m in cash and a further account receivable of 0.4m.
Using a conservative monthly operating expense of c.£150,000 – that would mean the kitty could run dry in circa 5 months time!
We’ve all witnessed a number of savage share price declines, involving capital raises in the current market e.g. AVCT.
In fact, similar to ONDO’s price action - AVCT’s share price also crashed by circa 45% over a three month period (Dec ’23 – Feb ’24), subsequently falling a further 40% to date, after the placing occurred.
Price action matters – the market is telling you the direction of travel.
Do ONDO need the cash right now – maybe not.
Will they need it in the short term before their backs are against the wall – probably?
IMHO
GM – I agree. A placing might be sooner than you think!
This is what happened last time 👇
1. On the 301023, ONDO RNS’d the appointment of Dowgate Capital as a new company broker.
Questions were subsequently raised on social media regarding a possible placing. A number of commentators were adamant that it wouldn’t happen (including on this site)!
2. Three weeks after this date, the company reported having circa 0.5m cash (ending Sept ’23).
In a video presentation CF was asked directly , if the company was going to conduct a placing. He attempted to reassure shareholders stating:
“We aren’t interested in diluting our share holdings or your share holdings…we might need to raise money in the next 12 MONTH period.”
3. Only 9 days later, ONDO announced a placing was taking place with Dowgate Capital as sole broker.
Did CF know about the planned capital raise already and was he honest in responding to the placing question – I’ll let you decide?
Not really trying to do anything other than discuss. Why does every opinion have to be met with an accusation.
They seem to have a good business. But with 0.8m of current assets and no comment on current liabilities. How much working capital do they have?
Expanding into these new states must incur legal expenses, increased staffing.
Even with 0.8m gbp assuming no current liabilities is it enough.
These are fair points.
If not, why do you think the share price is falling if everything is perfect?
They already did the raise after those interim results see RNS 01/12 so if your thought was to instill uncertainty in this regard you are already just showing you know nothing about this company
I spent a couple of hours reading latest results.
1. Clearly states they need to raise capital in next 12m. See going concern section and ceo statement.
2. Warrants are outstanding at 22p price, which could bring in money but we are below strike. So unlikely.
3. In last results we had 800k gbp in stock at cost. Assuming a leakbot costs 10 to 20gbp. We have 80k to 40k of units made for up to medium term demand.
4. Our it costs seem to scale with output but staff costs do not. However if we go into new regions (USA) i coule imagine needing to expand the team significantly.
My take is that 2024 will have significant opportunity. We will roll out in USA and more in Scandi. But i think we definately need more cash to do it. The city is brutal for fundraises and will want it cheap.
Brilliant business ( if can beat ai and smart meters), but i think the uk sadly does not give credit to small non profit making companies - unlike in the usa.
In an interview did ceo not say they were not that cash positive in firsy year. Somewhere he said margins in second year were larger say 80ct.
Mind u, the pricing in usa seems to be 5usd which is much higher
I have not found much info yet but wint.ai seems interesting. Using an AI analysis to target leaks rather than sensors like ondo.
My only worry here is are we developing a sensor based tech when an AI analysis might detect 70pct of issues.
I am going to ask ondo to include slides on competitors
Yes it is frustrating not being able to access the current broker note, but I seem to recall they when they started coverage they set a short term price target of 50p?
I think their cash position will enable therm to cover any additional US costs, as upfront payments from the current large scale US and Scandinavian roll outs will be feeding in substantial cashflow.
I think they are also making good progress.
Most likely they win new deals but i think this will require expenditure on legals, more usa staffing and working capital.
Does anyone have access to broker note. Seems like non retail only, which is crap given this is a retail stock
At the current price level Ondo represents outstanding, low risk value.
Many here are up to speed on the very strong fundamentals of the business model, but the charts currently also confirm this. The daily RSI shows Ondo as extremely oversold (RSI below 30), and the weekly RSI is also approaching oversold levels.
Current price does not reflect all the progress that has been made in the last 12 months (eg 10X growth in Total Addressable Market accessible through current insurer contracts).
The July results announcement is very likely to show that ‘potential’ is now being converted into very substantial Leakbots shipments and revenues.
Crazy how this got chased up to 39p and with new deals announced and nothing materially having changed its back to 16p - market hype in full view
Combo of Portsmouth water report and upcoming trading update had some concerned perhaps?