Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Update from the HMV Crew. Let's make our buys look like PI buys now... just in case someone spots us
5,000 Buy* 21.26k
7,040 Buy* 29.99k
9,398 Buy* 39.99k
7,010 Buy* 29.99k
Just an update from LSE on what our HMV (His Masters Voice) crew have been up to this morning.
They said BUY BUY BUY and that is what the crew are doing...
8,000 Buy* 32.99k
4,869 Buy* 20.00k
10,000 Buy* 40.50k
6,199 Buy* 25.56k
12,500 Buy* 50.89k
10,000 Buy* 40.50k
10,000 Buy* 40.45k
5,017 Buy* 20.09k
15,000 Buy* 59.90k
6,312 Buy* 25.56k
9,751 Buy* 39.00k
15,000 Buy* 59.70k
6,421 Buy* 25.56k
7,000 Buy* 28.16k
6,013 Buy* 24.05k
5,173 Buy* 20.94k
90,064 Buy* 12/04 365.44k
Porky, why are you so desperate now for a takeover at the present SP? At one stage you were shouting £54 but alas we hit a little bump in the road, you have trotted back screaming to market. Take me over!!!
I don’t see any TR1s? What’s going on Porky? For ages you were pushing us to mid cap value!!!
SC, good morning, regards the following comment:-
When you say "to put it in perspective I’m saying NCYT relies on the virus to grow as the company grows!!", are you suggesting that we should mingle more closely and travel to red zones to help the company???!!! :)
It could have been presented in a clearer manner, but like most RNS releases I guess!
What I meant by this , the company’s main market is still cV-19. If we are to get to and remain an Mcap company we need to diversify with more bolt on aquisitions.
ODDO I just don’t understand, the names speaks for itself!
According to Porky we are about to be taken over, he seems really keen , where once he wanted the SP in the twenties first! He might be right but at the present SP I really hope not.
As suspected ALNOV is dragging down the price with volume still over 2x that of AIM. What they need to do is spin off Primerdesign and list that on the main market and leave Novacyt on Euronext Paris with Microgen etc. Sourcebio reported 2020 revenues of £50m and a cash balance of £8.4m this morning and have a market cap of £150m vs the £280m here, the difference is almost equal to the NCYT market cap! Nevermind the fact that Q1 revenues exclusing any DHSC contribution were almost equal to FY20 revenues for Sourciobio... insane.
Don't really like analogies to war but regards the dispute :
Sometimes the person you'd take a bullet for, ends up being the one behind the gun.
None of us mere mortals know the reason for the dispute with DHSC. It does seem that the company has answered the governments plea for help in the war effort & now they think it's over they don't require all the bullets.
Falling infection rates and the DHSC have created a takeover chance for a nimble predator.
If the government are serious about building a diagnostics capability then they should quickly resolve the DHSC disagreement. It has made a valuable diagnostics company very cheap for the wrong reason.
The old saying it's too late to close the stable door once the horse has bolted applies here.
THIS WAS THE FIRST COMPANY IN ENGLAND WITH A CORONA VIRUS TEST.
Regarding the prospect of a take over by Abbott i would say its highly likely.
It's a total no brainer frankly, even stripping out DHSC all together, its still on course to deliver £ 160m EBITDA this year and £ 200 m cash at bank!! and its currently sitting at a sub £ 300m market cap. Yeah right,,,,,
We have the ONLY test to detect ALL Variants of Concern. Not to mention the current R&D pipeline.
If Abbott snapped this business up at say £ 700m (£10) on a VERY rough quick calculation i estimate it would add circa £ 6.4 bn of value to Abbotts business current valuation metric. That's right you read that figure correctly £ 6.4 Billion NOT Million. That's how ludicrously cheap our current valuation is.
At the current price it could well create a bidding war based on other deals done. As illustrated above any price Abbott paid between £ 700m and £ 6.4 bn would result in a exceptional value to them.
Frankly, if you weren't even bothered about what Novacyt does, adding this business into your group adds so much more value than the acquisition cost it would be hard to ignore.
The business would fit Abbott, AZN, GSK, Thermo Fisher, Perkin Elmer and that's before we come onto any out of sector players, private equity groups or plain asset strippers. When the sum of the business is less than its market cap a lot of companies will now be running a calculations over this.
I would say that Novacyt being acquired is no longer a case of IF its more of a case of when. GM and team need to focus on what they are great at, R & D. A T/O would enable them to do that.
In my experience these matters are nearly always settled fairly quickly during the 28 day arbitration phase. Arbitration is there specifically to enable both sides to put forward their argument and reach a compromise.
Its not in anyone's interests to have a long drawn out dispute over effectively the sale and delivery of some diagnostics products. Its really not that complex.
This will result in either a product swop, a credit note or a balance of payment made.
Anyhow, now the Share Price has been smashed in half from an already ridiculously low starting point even if they knocked £ 50 million off last years figures, the share price would still be nonsense in relation to its fundamental value.
Talk about over done, Jesus.
L&L,
You make very interesting points. So, do you think that £5.50 is a fairer price given everything? You may be right, but without any numbers we're just speculating again. We're also speculating about the legal 'dispute'. The wording of the RNS points to a breakdown of negotiations, as many here have said. Why else announce such a thing to the world? My barrister friend said that most (but not all) disputes get settled on the day they are due in court, at the very last minute. But, it could drag on and most likely, do damage to our reputation. IMO.
When you say "to put it in perspective I’m saying NCYT relies on the virus to grow as the company grows!!", are you suggesting that we should mingle more closely and travel to red zones to help the company???!!! :)
As far as ODDO is concerned, why do you think GM hired them to deramp us?
E_AL
A legal dispute IS a war, but one played out in courts rather than battlegrounds. However, I agree with you that if Abbott wants us enough, they will take us with or without legal disputes, but perhaps at a lower price?
It's all speculation though and we can speculate many things as has been the case on this board for months due to lack of information, but no-one speculated the recent events.
It brings to mind an old Benny Hill sketch where he said "Don't assume because when you assume you make an ass out of you and me 'ass-u-me'! "
Still makes me laugh.
When the government eventually cotton on to an effective testing turnstile philosophy across the U.K. then we might control and isolate the virus.
What do I mean by effective testing turnstile? Exactly what it is:- showing the criteria for entry. It’s still a mess and variants unfortunately will just compound the issue. So you may think what’s my point? Well to put it in perspective I’m saying NCYT relies on the virus to grow as the company grows!! It’s with us a long while unfortunately. So where ODDO fix 4:20 because they cannot look ahead regards NCYT!! Why on Earth are they in business? Ridiculous, really beggars belief.
SC, I agree mostly with what you say, however I think GM has done a remarkable job over the last year or so. When it comes to any form of dispute, which also goes for any company in dispute, it becomes a delicate issue to divulge in the market place.
We know there’s an issue, we know it’s withDHSC, the rest we can guess or speculate. The patient ones will wait for the story to unfold.
As far as I’m concerned, I’ve been in this situation so many times before and the truth is this is oversold. Takes a few days then it will go up, I’m not one normally to put figures but 550 is not unreasonable once the ship steadies.
At the end of the day countries are literally struggling to stay out of lockdown and need a new strategy. We might be in much need for some time yet!!!
Takeover pfft
“ people don't want to take over a company which is mired in a legal dispute with the UK gov.”
You make it sounds like we are in a war with UK gov. If Abbott is really interested in a takeover then the amount in dispute with DHSC is peanuts comparing to what they’ll pay for the takeover. They can take the unused the machines, refund DHSC and sell them in the States, problem solved!
I agree with you too L&L!
I think some companies might have wanted an M&A with us. GM said as much but said that he was not interested - at least, that's what I read on this board. Of course, one should never take postings here seriously unless evidence is produced.
However, I also agree that although BR might have helped to bring down the sp for a commission, GM has brought the sp down all by himself much more.
I also agree with you that a TO is very unlikely at this stage because on the whole, people don't want to take over a company which is mired in a legal dispute with the UK gov.
Crikey, this is reading like a conspiracy theory!! Did the Americans land on the moon, who’s is the flag waving?
I just don’t see a takeover happening, not when GM wants to become a mid cap company!!! The DHSC in a few days may have just been a blip when the fundamentals of the company remain unchanged and we all know the cash situation and revenue stream. We have connections with 150 countries. That is quite a journey in a year!!!
Mind you anything is possible and it’s the one scenario I have escaped in all my years of aim investing, not the worst by any means! I just can’t see it happening and most of me doesn’t want it to be honest. Been here over a year so I’d like to see the company grow in a British fashion.
I’m not a fan at all of aggressive take overs by the Americans, business as a whole is ripe for takeovers from the U.S. eventually the U.K. will be ripped apart with its remaining soul devoured. ITV I believe is on the watch list too, another of many I suppose!
I agree with all of you!
WBAFC , great minds thinks alike ha
Share price had dragged down due to losing contract and losing half revenue.
It's so bloody blatant that this share price is dragged as low as possible and at every opportunity , its bled to the maximum by mm.
Rumours are ripe that Abbott are taking novocyt over , but when ? Are they looking to shake out private investors for a few years and drag share to £1-2 before they officially confirm it ? Thoughts everyone
https://twitter.com/stevebennett17/status/1381563943261454336?s=21
Worth a read