We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
An optigene question I've read the articles their home page etc and PrimerDesign are mentioned in this article.
https://www.basingstokegazette.co.uk/news/regional/andover/18354750.basingstokes-super-fast-covid-test-set-rolled-across-uk/
What is our benefit in this? Sorry if it's been gone over :)
Wise words Ken based on facts that are here and now. The question that none of us know the answer too is how far this is going to run for. That’s the exciting part.
Is it just me or can Tuesday not come fast enough.
Bramley1967
Hi RK,
Thanks for your detailed answer. I normally follow your detailed thought processes re BMN, good to see your idea's re NCYT.
Stay safe, live long and prosper (never seemed more apt) :)
MEM, this is not a question of catching up or being ahead. The two methods are different and both have a huge place in diagnosis.
Novacyt is the most accurate test currently in the world with the fastest turnaround 2 hours. If people are admitted to hospital or a Healthcare centre this is the test that is key.
The Avacta opportunity is for in the field and at home. But it has to be developed and manufactured. This will take time.
Right now the key is the world needs both, but today the Novacyt system from Premier Designis the one.
The value of this company is going to keep rising from the £256 million Mcalpine today and most likely get to £500 million over the next few weeks. Other players may get there at some point, but being ahead of the game is key.
Look to Tesla as an example, the EV market would not be where it is without them, love or hate Elon Musk, but it is a fact. Everyone else is playing catch up. But in every field there are competitors and slight diversity in technology which all help get to the end game.
This board is about NCYT and the technology is proven and endorsed by the WHO and backed by GSK and Astra Zeneca and that is key to global success and underlines why the product is already being sold in 80 countries around the world. Anything that can help beat this silent killer and get the world back and operational is vital.
This company is doing everything it can.
Cheers RK
AVCT may well catch up with NCYT's present market capitalisation - but within a few weeks we will have moved much higher.
All companies are jumping on the COVID19 test bandwagon - similar a couple of years ago to blockchain.
The difference with NCYT is that it was first and all it does is the tests kits - and it has years of experience doing this including during previous crises such as Ebola.
In addition people, and the press, make much of the share price being only 6p at the end of last year but omit to mention that the company was floated at 60p in 2017.
So 60p to 377p over 3 years suddenly doesn't seem so remarkable.
In addition they fail to explain how it got from 60p to 6p.
Financial difficulties are one avenue (all disappeared now) but the issue of convertible bonds (death spiral) was another.
Once the bonds were all refinanced in November 2019 the shares started rising and had already risen from 6p to 20p by the beginning of this year. By the time all warrants had been exercised the shares were around 100p, albeit volatile.
Those financial difficulties are all in the past now, so as regards what is possible, I prefer to use a valuation of around 60p as the starting point, rather than the somewhat artificially depressed 6p.
Given the circumstances 60p to £5/£6/£7+ over 3 years doesn't seem such a big ask, given present circumstances.
As regards the future I don't see NCYT's future value as necessarily just how many test kits they can produce over X months but more the deep knowledge and patents they have as to how the whole testing system works. That is the real value to GSK and AZN. Their knowledge is in how to scale it, with almost limitless financial resources - and the government will make sure these resources are indeed limitless.
It isn't easily copied or developed evidenced by such as only NCYT and Roche being on the WHO approved list.
And also by the number of defective test kits out there, of which there appear to be many.
Moreover the government wants to set up a domestic testing base, where the UK is weak. NCYT are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this and in fact the whole things probably cannot come to fruition unless it is brought in house by one of the majors.
Which then develops into other longer term themes - Brexit and the end of globalisation. Manufacturing was already beginning to relocate from China. The COVID crisis will accelerate this, China will no longer be the main source of rare earths, of prescription drugs or vital electronic equipment. Trump may be anti China, but the Democrats are also. Let's see how long Huawei lasts in the UK - not much longer, I bet.
So as part of these themes the UK will be looking to onshore vital strategic industries one of which is domestic virus testing - which is where NCYT is uniquely placed. And that can only happen with strategic backing - or ownership.
AVCT will catch up over the next 6 weeks re M/Cap
Excellent question Zeb
NYCT looks to be around 4-6 weeks ahead with testing capability. However AVCT looks to be developing the platform which should but them a lot further up the food chain a few months out. Plus mcaps seem wildly different, even though AVCT is developing other therapeutics. Any thoughts
Disclosure, I have a few shares in each