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Well HarChris, i see you are ready to pop the Champagne. I have absolutely no interest or wish to see the SP at 10p. IMO the BOD is weak and drags its feet and the ygen deal is not yet in the bag as there is still the possibility of another bidder. The DHSC issue still pending and many predict or speculate a favourable outcome. Hopefully it would be so but no guarantees.
Based on acquisition of YGEN at valuation of circa £23m (including Thermo debt payment), and knowing the YGEN business well, here's my view (illustrative numbers only):
YGEN standalone = £23m
YGEN with capital / funding = 2-3 x £23m
YGEN with capital / funding + Novacyt installed lab channels = 3-4 x £23m
So, the completion of the acquisition alone should give an uplift to Novacyt valuation, just because of the valuation uplift from the acquired YGEN business.
As for Novacyt business:
Novacyt stand alone = £28m (c 40p prior to acquisition news) (discounted NAV due to legal dispute)
Novacyt + YGEN installed lab base = 2x above?
Novacyt with legal dispute settled at NIL either way = at least 2-3x above
Novacyt with legal dispute settled in its favour = at least 3+ x above
Bottomline, Novacyt + YGEN business should therefore give us a rerating.
And finally, if proper management injected in, expect even more fireworks.
It's a win-win deal.
PS: YGEN is growing its core business 20%+ and therefore I expect EBITDA positive. And with the synergies, will reduce cash burn in Novacyt / combined business. Growth for each non-Covid business should also get a lift from cross-selling.
Apologies if posted before.
12.12.2022 - (short notice) changes to small and medium enterprise tax credits.
https://www.shlegal.com/insights/changes-to-uk-r-d-sme-tax-credits
Did these R&D tax credit changes, - taken from the Small / Medium Enterprises and provided to Big Pharma, - catch out the likes of Novacyt (and Yourgene), to our detriment as outlined within.
Stephenson Harwood, (authors) provided legal advise to Novacyt at the 2017 IPO, the purchase of IT-IS, and are now advising with the purchase of Yourgene.
Hi props ....I could explain in detail but it wouldn't change your loss ....I'm sure others understand ......it's so simple but my autistic mind works different to yours .. ..thankfully ..don't worry fella ..it will happen again ...I don't want anyone to lose... but no one understands my jibberish . .sorry
Agreed ss. Awful rns, market reacted accordingly and anticipate further drops tomorrow to level back out the weird rise from Monday and Tuesday.
Business at usual at cash burn towers
Really bad sales and figures . This is why we are not hearing any thing on RNS it is because they are not selling anything . We were very lucky to maximise sales during covid or it would be Novacyt been bought for pennies .
Now I am hearing LR is coming on board it looks even bleaker here .
A positive DHSC result is all that is keeping my here now .
Ramblings of a nut case..
The last time you popped up the share price was 45p and you predicted 10p incoming so you can hardly act all prophetic with the share price at 60p today.
One more time suckers drawn in to buying. Incredible. Once bitten...twice bitten ....three times bitten and you never learn.
P100 - support 1 is 59p and the next line of support is 54p then 47p
given the very poor rns it seems to have held well at 59p - i suspect solely due to ygen bid.
i still suspect that the increase this week was down to some ygen holders buying in as well as maybe some (past holders?) buying in anticipation of the deal going through.
the momentum sees to have petered out and the market makers will probably want to pick up the shares that they sold on the very quick rise which probably caught them out.
so i could see it potentially dropping into low 50s in the next couple of weeks.
hard to know how the market will assess the chances of the takeover happening....seems the only deal in town and that ygen will go bust if it doesn't get over the line. the problem is convincing ygen SH at a huge losses that this is the only way forward. some might vote against in spite or thinking there are better alternatives when in reality there don't seem o be. so difficult to predict the sp movement as we near the deadline date
how much will the market value the combined portfolio is the next question...were we there at 70p or is there more to come.
i think if it does drop to 50p - that would be worth buying in for a trade. in anticipation of he deal going through
just my rambling thoughts
Moniman. Makes sense. It'll drift back to the 40's. The rise earlier this week was based on nothing other than traders deciding that ncyt was this week's 'let's collude and make 30-40% on something'.
Dead company, dead share.
Hi Wilson correct .....have a good day fella ... .2.To .5 .....125%. Frozen... timing ......40 to 70......timing ...sells ...timing .5 buys .....%. Vote ...I'll take 60 ......local food banks happy and pays petrol for voluntree .....I'm ashamed feels like cheating ....what is collusion to achieve a goal to build a bigger fence worth to these people .....diagnostics has left the building... helping people is a sideshow just to post on Facebook or LinkedIn...I am disalousend
Trading update hasn't gone down well, it appears to be heading back quite quickly, probably drift until more updates on takeover or DHSC news?
Gizmo the Rns says 2 so until notified differently I'll go with that.
At the current capex.. its still nigh on 36 months to burn through the lot?
And two plus years with an acquisition?
Meaning Dhsc claim will be well over and done with and imo won, so most likely another 80 or so million back in the coffers...
With patience, this will be back in pound(s) in no time! imo dyor fingers crossed :)
Agree Kaeren, it took us 8 months to go through DD once terms had been agreed for a small business. This has been going on for longer and I'm hoping there might be another in the pipeline too.
Hi Wilson 3 ......I'll stick ......interesting RNs from yourgene ...cash flow .......and share movement means maybe board worried it will pass first attempt ....this has chembio biosynex saga written all over it ....and every month delay svb gain and novacyts cash dwindles
Kaeren. Rees definitely not up to it. Also think this deal was on the cards before last Xmas. Ygen sp was being worked lower on purpose imo. Said it many times months ago. Hope Rees gets his collar felt anytime soon.
You had an opportunity to get in again at 40p and out yesterday for 70p...this has become a trading share quite clearly imo...
MY take is simple, awful numbers , acquisitions the way forward for now
and revenue will be many many multiples.
Burn rate , I expect substantial sums spent on litigation and due diligence , don't believe Yourgene is the only target and other companies will have been looked at in a comparison exercise. Again there will be upheaval as integration occurs but H1 2024 should be many multiples of what we were shown today.
I don't think Rees or JM cut the mustard as a CEO , hopefully a suitable one may be attracted after a few acquisitions and the successful resolution of the millstone round our necks.
Funny both RNS's issued same day. Ever get the feeling that perhaps all this started prior to May , I do , no proof , have worked on several M&A
Projects as the buyer ( not me the bank I worked for ) and the accounts going back several years wouldn't have been examined in a few weeks , never mind everything else , including synergies , premises , salary comparisons , potential redundancies, clients blah .
I'm not too happy with NCYT - still down more than £30K - patiently waiting @
"NCYT 15,000 67.00p £10,050.00 268.22p £40,233.00 - -£30,183.00".... & holding
Can only see the merger of NCYT & Your-Geriatric as a sad bonding for the Board of
Dumb & Dumber - my confidence in this move does not exist in either.
Fortunately it will be the Grand-Kids to pick-up this shi'te
i wish it was you going off a cliff!!
i can't believe you are still here spouting ****e that you actual own any shares, what was it, £5000 if i remember correctly!!!
please, please, leave the genuine share holders to have a conversation without your constant de-ramping.
i made quite a substantial loss here when i sold back at £1.18 (£27,000) but you take the hit and move on, that's life, it was your decision (apparently)!
✨ Great you found it Wilson ✨
I used F3 and wordsearched.
Sorry B2 you read faster than me:))
Davand
Following the Effective Date, it is intended that Lyn Rees, the current Chief Executive Officer of Yourgene, and Dr John Brown, the current non-executive chairman of Yourgene, will remain on the board of Yourgene and will join the board of Novacyt. Following the Effective Date, the board of Novacyt will therefore comprise of two executive directors, being James McCarthy and Lyn Rees, and five non-executive directors, being James Wakefield, Juliet Thompson, Andrew Heath, Jean-Pierre Crinelli and Dr John Brown. Each other non-executive director on the Yourgene Board will resign from the Yourgene Board with effect from the Effective Date. Dr Bill Chang and Dr Joanne Mason will remain employed by Yourgene but will also resign from the Yourgene Board with effect from the Effective Date.
Correct I just trawled about ten mins down Rns to get.