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As a Yourgene holder with any sense you’d sell now if you think there’s any chance the deal fails to go through (be it collapsing or voted down) as the SP will plummet given that scenario.
Quite difficult to work a closing probability model CSwag , what folks say they will do and when reality strikes are two entirely different things.
Most realise if no alternative offer and they vote against , they are highly likely to be sitting with dramatically reduced holdings compared to the offer price. Clock ticking .
Everyone impacted by regs , culture methods slow , the times they are a changing.
I don't see another bidder coming in now.
the worry is getting enough votes....as i have said before a lot of PI vote needed..some might vote against out of spite and others because they think they can force ncyt to up the offer.
would not be surprised if ygen have to come out and say take the offer or we go bust...there is no alternative
Tough competition in this space. Will be a difficult area to break into and the ceivdr ruling will slow uptake somewhat in eu and fda wont be easy to get for us market. UK market dominated by one player currently and their.multiplex has 6 rather than 4 targets and doesn't require any dna extraction. Total market for this assay in UK fully penetrated is c12-15m gbp. Around half of this is currently using traditional culture methods that will need to be persuaded to.move to a molecular assay.
The scheme document was Rns'd on the YGEN website on the 27th July.
My takeout.
Voting will be complete by the 15th August and then two days later ....
Only material points are: (1) scheme vote (“court meeting”) and general meeting (“shareholder meeting”) which are held consecutively back to back within 15 minutes; and (2) regulatory approvals (in the conditions section).
The “scheme sanction hearing” will follow later on and is basically just a rubber stamp.
Cash settlement for those holding YGen shares Sept 2023.
So folks two weeks to see if any alternative offer on the table and then it is vote counting .
Afternoon all. Does anyone have inf on the five countries mentioned in this post with regards to previous sales / distribution. Who we sold through previously or are these basically new target territories that this partnership will enable us to penetrate. I recall a prior mention of Sebia but no details. Thx .
Interesting post simmulla -- thanks for posting. I have actually noticed quite a few people locally recently wearing masks and know of several Covid cases. Friends in Zimbabwe also inform me that being their 'winter' Covid is on the increase.
Tks to Larry for posting on twitter for those that can't read twitter Dr Thomas heister our European sales manager says "I am happy to announce the offical partnership with #SUPERLAB in Belgrade Serbia, which will drive sales & distribution of #Novacyt’s products in Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Montenegro as well as Kosovo.
In our meeting last week we completed a full product training, discussed the strategic plan for rest of 2023 and visited some end-user customers to introduce our Novacyt complete workflow solutions. We had great customers feedback, excellent exchange with our SUPERLAB colleagues and despite nearly 40°C also a little bit fun. Thanks to Jelena Paunović, Aleksandar Dimitrijević, Jovan Trbojević, Aleksandar Nesic and all others we met, for the open and furitful exchange as well as the impressive tour through #InsititutSUPERLAB. I am looking forward to a very successful long-term cooperation with SUPERLAB and to seeing you again soon."
Back to the beverages.
Just like when I posted on Abingdon board at 4-5p
Look what happened soon after.
Very used to interpreting your words Giz , have a nice weekend.
A clock is right twice a day and that's an improvement on PI101 :)
Gosh Calder kate last time you were here it was hoist the main sale etc etc.
Blooming Hendricks and fever****
Hi Gltader thank you no offence meant ..welcome to board a very interesting post ......B2HS2L post a bit further down is worth a look fella ..thank you Kaeren sometimes it's hard to interpret implications of words
Gizmo555, no offense taken. No need to apologise. I am basing my assessment on multiples of revenue, not EBITDA. I am sure you are aware, there has been M&A activities in the healthcare world in the last 3 years. Those with no sales (yet) but IP, those with sales, IP but no profits (yet), and those with the full suite. We are in the 2nd camp.
Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Golden Rule.
Be careful of what you believe from an anon poster on here.
Umm really ? I shall choose to comment no further.
However I agree broadbrush with GL. Without doubt the acquisition of YGEN could provide the means of an immediate multiple increase on current diabolical figures. Feeling positive for the first time in a long time.
As ever time will tell. Now there is potential , organic growth has proved thus far to be non existent . Hopefully more news incoming re other M&A activity soon.
That's not sarcasm Kaeren ....it's reality of basing any investment on EBITDA ...colouring in is filling the gaps left by not including depriciation......I apologise Gltader
Gosh Gizzmo that's unlike you , sarcasm being the lowest form of wit blah blah. Disappointed.
Hi Gltader ...I like your illustration would you like someone to colour it in
P100, you could be right about revisting the 40's again.....the Ygen deal and lacklustre trading results not inspiring shareholders maybe?
GL - interesting post
if ygen - a company that seems to be run even worse than ncyt can generate that kind of revenue then one would hope that ncyt can do better....though the cash burn is still very high and with extra staff going to get worse.
the ygen portfolio looks a good addition and the bonus is that even if we lose court case then we have gained something tangible from covid. i see you gave no scenario where the gov win ? what are your thoughts on that? what valuation?
i agree that should the deal go through we will get a re-rate...just depends how much the market believes we can profit on the ygen stuff
is it me or are most of yesterday's posts gone?
Gltrader on a slow Friday my slightly less scientific view is January to December 2024 revenues should be 32 mil plus.
2025 38.5
2026 45 mil etc etc
Without further acquisitions and if we win the court case just give us a 20 pence dividend per share which is two times 10 pence.
Bullish not really but I'm off for some holiday clothes!!! and a few drinks in a couple nice places therefore banning myself until tomorrow. Gla watch them green boxes.