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We are over 9 months into FY2024 to be precise. It’s a July FY end.
If it was a one off “commercial” order which they knew was not to an underlying customer but for scaling up purposes by STM and that process would take a while might have been better to explain as such if that is the case.
There is much talk of follow on orders etc when maybe there is actually no “commercial” product with the materials in even available yet?
Part of the reason for the division on this board. The expectation of time. Of course some will deny being impatient but when the company tells you they’re expecting a gradual increase in demand over a 2 year period and already 5 months into FY24 they are being tacitly questioned on not delivering it seems a little bit too early.
I simply have more patience and lack the need to scrutinise the minutiae. Maybe that’s a failing, maybe it’s a failing on others expecting them to deliver sooner on guidance ?! 🤷🏼♂️
The guidance
“As previously announced, the Board's expectations were for a first commercial production order prior to the end of 2023 and that the first use of the Group's materials would be for low volume applications during FY24 and FY25. “
‘Demand is expected to grow gradually, enabling Nanoco to deliver the goal of being self-financing during CY25. Earlier adoption in more applications, or by more end users, has the potential to accelerate that expectation. If the infra-red sensing technology is adopted in high volume, mass market products, demand for Nanoco materials has the potential to grow very rapidly beyond CY25.’
This was with with the first order statement https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/nanoco/news/rns/story/wv4520w
This was reinforced with the interims "Delivering our first ever commercial orders was a huge achievement for the whole Nanoco team. Sales volumes of first generation materials are expected to grow gradually over time to deliver a cash breakeven position during CY25“
Gradually and time are the question?
Also the company refers to low volume applications which i think brought many to believe there was an actual underlying device..when perhaps there is not yet. Comms comms comms..
Anyhoo it’s been over six months since we received, manufactured , shipped and invoiced that first order and time is moving on and there is no gradually showing yet.
"TG2D Nobody actually knows what end products our dots will go in...that seems to include our CEO who stated that he was only interested in the number and size of silicon wafers cut...but did elude to 2026 for use of our dots in mobiles...."
Because there are so many applications. You want a banner headline such as "2nd gen Vision Pro to have ST sensors enabled by Nanoco QD tech" and that may come in time but right now the sensor isn't even confirmed. Don't forget it can take two months to make wafers if I recall and months again to do integration etc but once compete they can be used in almost any 'seeing' application (where there are no temperature constraints) This supply arrangement of a platform technology is far better than previously when we had a single use single customer situation which as we saw is a nightmare if that relationship ends. ST have >200k customers.
As for phones the opportunity is huge. But it's unlikely we will know that STM are supplying Apple or whoever until after launch.
They might well be in the scale up phase..i think Nnanoco has highlighted with their current ongoing work programmes that you get to validation then it goes to commercial scale up which can be another 12 months…no idea on first gen materials but we got to validation and “first commercial” order likely begining of Nov 2023 so if there a similar timetables we/many have been looking for direct “real” commercial sales too early i guess.i don’t know but judging from the forecasts for current financial year it may well be later in the year when there might be a product commercially available to underlying customers. Again this could be interpreted as poor comms from the company around expectation..it might also explain the drift.
Not trying to talk anything down but make sense of where we might be down the commercialisation road..happy for alternative takes.
Kooba
The reality I suspect is that STM hasn't acknowledged the relationship with Nanoco because they are still at the research stage with no commercially viable end sales..
This also would give credence to why Brian is so cagey, basically he hasn't a clue...
Your right in thinking that STM has thousands of irons in the fire to which Nanoco is just one of many!
And yes it seems all our eggs are in one basket again, just with Apple in the past, a lesson still not learnt by the Board.
Ergo there is no doubt no guarantee of any near term commercialisation of Nanoco dots....
The other big unanswered conundrum why has Nanoco always failed at commercialisation of its CFQD's?
Brian likes to have most of his shareholders held by the ghoulies.
An issue is once again Nanoco finds its short term commercial success in the hands of one company , time STM. It is hardly surprising that folks want evidence of where materials are going and what STM are doing with them from past experience. The oft rolled out STM have not spent money developing these products without wanting big sales does not totally cut it for me, STM are a massive outfit with many many irons in the fire in the markets it addresses..what they have spent with Nanoco is small beer. It would just be nice at some point if STM acknowledged Nanoco or its materials in anything to support the company’s confidence.
Just to add..
Without basic information such as knowing end products and markets its very easy for Brian to use the current state of lack of knowledge as a 'smoke screen' to hide behind as there is nothing for him or the Board to be judged against, no benchmarks, and very easy to move the goal posts by stating that there were 'third party issues leading to delivery delays' or any excuse and simply move the delivery timescales of what little we know out by another year or so and none of us would be the wiser.
Most normal run business would have target markets and a product pipeline and a timeline for 'go to market' with core products and core products.
Not with our Brian all very vague, opaque, and up in the air, you might as well throw dice to decide on an investment outcome!
Typically we define near infrared (NIR) from 780 nm to 1400 nm and shortwave infrared (SWIR) from 1400 nm to 3000 nm. But it is also common to refer to the entire range from 780 nm up to 3000 nm as NIR or SWIR.
http://image-sensors-world.blogspot.com/2022/09/eetimes-europe-article-on-emergence-of.html
So possible it is different industry definitions involved too.
Nobody actually knows what end products our dots will go in...that seems to include our CEO who stated that he was only interested in the number and size of silicon wafers cut...but did elude to 2026 for use of our dots in mobiles....
Hence here in lies the dilemma how do you value a business you just don't know what end products Nanoco are supplying and to who?
It's just plain bizarre that Brian thinks this is normal behaviour not to inform the market of the future direction of the business.
I fully understand that our dots could go into thousands of different products but the current position of zero information doesn't help investors make informed investment decisions...because quite frankly there's next to nothing to base any real future value on....everything is vague, opaque, just guess work at best, and quite frankly a bizarre way fircany CEO to run a business.
Can see sub 15p by summer because of this fundamental dilemma!
Thats InGaAs the existing near and short wave infrared sensor method that is hugely expense. The STM (and a number of others ) approach using QDs is a far cheaper method with similar results and far more effective for small or mobile applications.
Not sure X where that takes us in reality..the Stickel stuff and research paper has been posted many times over the years as it has been about as you must know , so nothing much new to even mid term holders there to be honest. As to another new sensor ..might be relevant but it’s still difficult to tell from any up to date STM information what our materials are actually likely to be used in.
Oooh la la - and commercially available :
https://mvpromedia.com/nit-announces-commercial-availability-of-swir-sensors/
Here's another - apologies if posted before :
New Imaging Technologies NSC2101
https://new-imaging-technologies.com/news/new-high-resolution-swir-sensor-with-high-performance/
So, where are these SWIR sensors?...
Addvisia provides a multi-imager testing platform. See link below:
https://irtnanoelec.fr/addvisia-the-modular-imaging-platform-in-openaccess/
You will see our SWIR sensor, the ST VD57GB (SWIREY) EVK is available today on the Addvisia platform. Presumably this is just for evaluation at the moment and this wouldn’t be the final sensor name, but it’s good to see it really exists!
That's it for now. Tonight I will dream of bright skies...
Ok, what do we know about the ST SWIR sensor with our QD’s?
STM ordered 2 types of dots from us. NIR and SWIR. A few of us already think our dots could be in the ST VD55G1, which is a NIR sensor. Silicon on its own can detect NIR but I think this sensor may have a QD film that allows it to be “Ultracompact and low-power. The world’s first 2.16 µm global shutter pixel. The sensor fits into the most size-constrained devices such as AR/VR glasses or personal electronics”
But it was the SWIR sensor that interested me more… we knew very little from the link below:
https://www.st.com/content/dam/AME/2023/sensors-converge-2023/pdf/sensors-swir-time-of-flight.pdf
SWIR is safer for the eyes, the sensor can be installed behind a OLED screen, has stronger contrast and is less affected by sunlight. And, as Steckel says “QD sensor technology is well positioned to enable the broad adoption of SWIR sensing in applications where low-cost and large volumes are required.” I.e. this is the one that could end up in a smartphone…
See below link to some good slides with more information on the SWIR sensor. STM call the SWIR film QF1400 in the slides:
https://epic-photonics.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Jonathan-Steckel-STMicroelectronics.pdf
To quote the summary:
• ST is actively engaged in the industrialization of a low-cost, high-resolution, disruptive infrared imaging technology based on colloidal PbS QuantumFilm (QF) technology
• ST QD image sensor technology enables the highest resolution (smallest pixel pitch) global shutter image sensors in the industry
• Record QE and global shutter efficiency have been achieved on our 300 mm wafer scale process with pixel sizes down to 1.62 μm pitch
• ST successfully overcame the challenges of integrating colloidal PbS solution processed QD materials in an industrial semiconductor fab environment
• ST QuantumFilm technology allows access to new types of imaging capabilities and markets that are impossible using visible light
• QD image sensors will drive large SWIR imaging market growth by enabling new sensing applications for large-volume consumer electronics use-cases driven by orders of magnitude lower price combined with high performance
Sleep tight and don't have any nightmares about ghouls and the like !
Something positive to remember, just to stir the pot…
Most people here probably know who Jonathan Steckel is. For those who don’t, here’s a quick bio below:
https://www.kimberton.org/jonathan-steckel/
He help found QD Vision. He then joined Apple and for many years worked on developing new display and sensor technologies based on quantum dot materials. Then he moved to his current role at STMicroelectronics and is a Fellow and Director of Advanced Technology in the imaging division, where…. “I have a very dynamic role working to commercialize a new QD image sensor technology that I have been working on for many years.”
You will have seen the paper below already posted:
https://sid.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/msid.1483
Steckel says “As the value proposition for SWIR imaging and light detection evolves, QD sensor technology is well positioned to enable the broad adoption of SWIR sensing in applications where low-cost and large volumes are required.”
So, on the one hand, we have a few vocal posters on this BB who only seem to see dark clouds…
…and on the other hand we have Jonathan Steckel and our two new NEDs; Dieter May, who was the CEO of Osram Opto Semiconductors, and Dr Jalal Bagherli, former chief of Dialog Semiconductor, an Apple chip supplier that was acquired by Japan’s Renesas for €4.8bn in 2021. They all clearly believe in the technology and in Nanoco - So on balance, I’m with them - I see bright skies ahead!
Next, where is the ST SWIR sensor… I think I have found a bit more info, but I'm tired now so it will have to be tomorrow - sorry!
IDMA, I posted previously what Cavendish said in their Feb-24 report relating to Shoei:
In one of the papers published by the Court during the Nanoco/Samsung litigation, Samsung disclosed that they had acquired the IP portfolio of QD Vision and had taken a license over Nanosys’ IP portfolio. This is in addition to their own IP. It is therefore noteworthy that despite having the protection of these three IP portfolios, Samsung nonetheless felt the need to settle the Nanoco litigation at a total cost of $150m.
It may therefore be the case that any customers of Hansol (besides Samsung), Nanosys and Shoei are exposed to the same risk that Samsung faced in its litigation with Nanoco, particularly since their defensive IP portfolios will be that much smaller.
So.. if Shoei make squillions of dots in their new factory maybe they, like Samsung, will have to take out a license with us.
Beyond Samsung I think the major OEM players in the QD display space are TCL, Hisense and to a lesser extent LG. AFAIK the Chinese are still using cadmium, or cad light which is good enough to bypass any regulation (at present) and so far there doesn't seem to be any signs of a shift away from that.
I understood Sharp are exiting display.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Foxconn-s-Sharp-pivots-to-AI-after-decision-to-exit-TV-display-production
I think he said Sharp had showcased something but I can’t find anything. I am guessing they are not our Asian customer if Nanosys are highlighting it …so someone I’d producing CFQDs for display..Nanosys maybe? Problem also is that Samsung display supply others leading electronics companies and they have the licence to do what they like around CFQDs I guess.
In recent conference calls, BT has said they're not looking to challenge QD makers, but instead challenge the OEM's and only once they've built a significant market, which could take years.
To me that sounds like they're hoping the OEM's will simply switch supply to Nanoco to avoid future litigation, but can't say I've seen any evidence of that to date.
Thanks for the video. They mentioned the use of cadmium free dots. I’m sure I recall BT saying that they can’t be manufactured at scale without using Nanoco IP?
Where QD in display is at..they seem to be far from over .
https://youtu.be/gguj6zn8IWI?si=QMkYd-5drIq92CM4
No logos on the shirts though..bloody amateurs.