The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I don't think we should understate the news about - and potential impact of - our 2 new NEDs. Dieter May joined the Board in February. Dr Jalal Bagherli joined 3 weeks ago.
Dr Bagherli was CEO of Dialog Semiconductors, leading to their $5.7B sale to Renesas in 2021. He led the negotiation of a $600m licensing deal for transfer of IP and resources to Apple; raised significant funds in European capital markets and completed numerous acquisitions totalling over $1bn. He's also co-chair of the UK Semiconductor Advisory Panel.
Dieter May was Chairman and CEO of Osram Opto Semiconductors GmbH, one of the world's leading optoelectronic components companies, participating in electronics applications such as facial and iris recognition, health monitoring, vehicle navigation, and virtual and augmented reality as well as uLED displays
These guys have vast experience right at the top of multi-billion dollar companies, with a broad range of industry contacts and expertise in different market sectors.
Anyone want to speculate why these guys would want to spend any of their time advising our itty-bitty company that is only valued at £15m above current cash levels?...
I still don't get why a handful of people on this BB spend so much of their time and effort posting negative comments, or replying in agreement to other negative comments, about the company, about the management team and about how the lessons from the past tell us we should steer clear of investing here as they expect the SP to tank soon. Wouldn't you find somewhere else to invest your money and time?
I can only conclude that they actually do believe in the company prospects!
Those people are trying to set the narrative by coming up with "logical reasons" the company mcap should be lower, which they then use to then tell us what the SP "should" be. But we all know that it's the SP that determines the mcap, and the SP is dictated by supply and demand - so ultimately it's quite largely based on sentiment or optimism. The mcap was getting on for £150m above cash when we were working with the US customer when we were only in the initial stage of product development. Why? Because investors could see the potential...
My optimism has been increasing the more I've been digging into the prospects, and I couldn't see some of the stuff I found had been shared on this BB - or certainly it hadn't been shouted about as much as I would have expected.
Kooba, all valid points. I should say the 5 year cycle is in reality quite a bit more than that and we know Nanoco were working with ST as part of the supply chain for the "major US customer" from 2018. I believe they've met all milestones and the dates haven't slipped, but we investors aren't exactly the most patient people. We all want news and we want it now!
Watching colloidally grown lead sulfide quantum dots dry in an industrial fab environment has tested my patience at times... Think I might go and buy a drone with NIR capabilities to while away the time..
Kooba, annoyingly you keep beating me to it each time ;-) I've been reading through all those papers and others - I also found no mention of Nanoco in any STM tech specs. I didn't see that as a bad thing. Nanoco have developed a component material and have their own IP. STM use that component material and have built it into a quantum film with their own IP. Two different products. These two companies seem to be working well with each other and have done for many years. We investors focus on the daily SP and half-yearly and annual results where I think the real value is in the 5 year super-cycle of developing a new product, where there seems to be confidence that there will then be a market for that product. This is what I meant when I cryptically said we've been concentrating on the finger instead of the moon...
We know the process of putting quantum dots on silicon isn’t unique to ST, but that they are the only ones who are investing in producing them at scale for mass market devices. It’s not that they have been investing years just to develop a new technology – we know they’ve been investing in being able to reliably produce that technology at scale for the mass market. We were told that already by BT. ST have been building an oil rig...
We also know STM built an additional 300mm fab in another country, i.e. more than one oil rig to meet supply demands of mass market adoption (not necessary just of these sensors of course)..
It's difficult to do but I've had to step far back to before 2020 to see the bigger picture and to look at the progress they've made working with STM. Doing that has been like watching a snail move using stop motion photography! So I feel positive right now. And we've not even talked about the 2nd customer / partner we've also been working with for years... or the 3rd one they told us they hoped to sign in H1 2024...
But putting both feet back on the ground, it's about turning that all potential good stuff into profits.
LordWM
I hadn't finished my analysis so didn't and don't want to set hares racing. I found a few likely candidate sensors but was looking for ways to get more confidence before posting anything. And I didn't know if what I found was old news to this BB. No time now for me just now and looks like Kooba and others have also done a lot of digging into this - perhaps way more than me.
But I've definitely been seeing green shoots, and maybe on a day that will finally dawn!
Yeah, I didn't recall whether anyone had already called out "ST’s new VD55G1 is sampling now, with volume production slated for March 2024" but presumed it must have all been covered before on this BB. Been researching specs of all ST sensors and possible end users / collaborations but not expecting to find "the answer".
Found some other stuff of interest, again could all be old news to you or this BB. Again, excuse the pun, trying to join up all the dots. Clearly lots of market potential even with gen1 sensors. Been going through iphone roadmaps, and how sensors behind the new punch hole design are being testing in iphone 16 but not expected to be included until iphone 17 in 2025.
Which got me thinking that gen2 dots won't be available by 2025 so maybe, just maybe, it could end up with sensors with gen1 dots in...
And then i got to thinking that I need some sleep.
I'm certainly not suggesting they had any information prior to the tender that wasn't in the market. I just wonder if they are, excuse the pun, sensing some good mood music. The research I've been doing recently provides me with optimism but I can't put thoughts on paper yet and it might be nothing you don't already know. Anyone got any tea leaves?
Troublesome
You are right, investing in Nanoco for so long has been a rollercoaster ride for us all and many times I've felt sick and wanted to get off.
I'll give you my honest opinion. I think BT is doing a good job. I think the Samsung payout was the right result for the company, but I wasn't happy about the communications in advance.... And, let's just say I really wasn't comfortable when ME sold his shares when he did.. So, I might be optimistic now - more than I've been for a long time - based on everything I'm hearing, but it's not blind faith and I'm prepared to be critical of the company at times.
Kooba, without wanting to sound combative, I wonder it could be seen as confidence by the company its own near term prospects. They've been making positive noises for quite a while now, and yes we've all got the scars and have seen a lot of false dawns. But after many years working with STM developing materials that have finally reached production maybe they are feeling confident that there will be positive news in the coming months.
Something that I spent a lot of time thinking about before the tender was why they would have been happy with / endorsed their own Financial Adviser and joint Corporate Broker Cavendish's bullish forecast prior to the 24p tender. I couldn't get my head round the timing. It felt I was being talked out of taking 24p as the forecast was much higher - albeit I know broker forecasts are usually optimistic. So.. I considered they might have been covering themselves, i.e. the tender genuinely was a premium to the SP at that time, but if positive developments followed they could rightly say they guided the market to expect good things...
But as you know I'm an optimist!
Kooba, yep fair point. I think we have to hope that what happened with Samsung was a life lesson for us and that we are no longer so trusting. I guess there’s a degree of faith required that restrictions in contract and legal terms - and in knowledge shared - reduces the likelihood a partner takes advantage of us again.
IDL, great post.
I’ve been doing a bit of research recently as I realised my understanding of the relationship between us and STM, and between our separate products & processes, was lacking. You are probably way ahead of me. Busy right now but would like to chat more about this.
Hi IDL and restorer
I saw this recently but came away seeing it as positive.
Nanoco produces the dots, the raw material. STM make the product they badge as “quantum film”. So I think when they refer to quantum materials they mean the film and not the dots.
I see it as very encouraging that STM believe in the technology and that they are investing in their next generation film. And we know they are doing this in conjunction with Nanoco as the company told us.
So good news I think.
NGR, I am loathe to post the reasons for my optimism on this BB as this playground of a forum isn't exactly the best place to have a sensible conversation.
If I can summon up the strength I'll post something when I get time. People can make of it what they will, whilst others will drown it out with noise.
I see a potentially bright future here (I mean the company, not this BB).
I would be very happy to see Nanoco accelerate their share buy back at current prices..
I think those people playing musical chairs are concentrating way too hard on the finger and not on the moon..
So, everyone trading shares should have taken up the tender offer to the maximum – and they did. That’s why it was always going to be over-subscribed.
LOAM took up the tender, the de-ramping team on this board did. And Hamoodi did. There was free money to be made buying the same shares at a lower price before or after the 24p tender.
One of the de-rampers previously said on this board that LOAM were called into a secret late-night meeting with Nanoco management and must have had an insight into some negative news that made them want to tender their shares. Except… the management team have already told us what they know and LOAM doesn’t have any better insight into STM’s plans for future dot orders!
But now we see Hamoodi also tendered his shares! So, was he in that secret late-night meeting with LOAM and the management team? But, how can that be? Hamoodi has taken LOAM to court!
So, is this all a ploy? Was Hamoodi working with LOAM all along? Or maybe LOAM settled out of court by giving Hamoodi all that inside information they have about STM’s plans?
Hahaha. These de-ramping comedians do know how to tell them!
Sadly, this forum cannot be used for its purpose. There is a team of de-rampers filling this board with their overly negative messages. They work very hard. Since I last posted on Sunday they have posted 33 times, with one poster sending many messages in quick succession. Anything contrary to their view seems to stir their hornets nest...
The good news is the company can buy more shares for their money, and I’ve been able to buy more at 19-20p. So, I should be happy with what they are doing, right? No. What they are doing ruins this forum and crowds out sensible conversation. It makes people who believe in Nanoco not want to post here as they will be belittled.
So, why are the de-rampers here and why are they so busy right now? Anyone who didn’t really believe in the company would have left this board and wouldn’t post so many messages, right? Those people will have tendered their shares at 24p and walked away. The de-ramping team will have tendered but why haven’t they walked away? Because they want to buy back in. So.. that must mean they think the company must have some good prospects and that the SP will rebound…
Their volume of posts right now seems desperate. Maybe they are concerned more people won’t sell their shares. Maybe they are worried the company will send out even more positive news, perhaps additional orders from STM or more patents or onboarding another multi-national company that wants to work with Nanoco.
Maybe they worry they won’t be able to buy back in any lower SP? There were some large buys yesterday (4 alone over 150k shares) in addition to the company buy-back. The big buys are likely to be from shares tenderred getting back in with a nice profit. They don’t seem to think the SP is going much lower... Those people who already sold can’t exactly sell more shares to lower the SP, whilst the company still has £2+m to spend buying back shares – on top of all those expecting to buy back in.
So, that game of musical chairs they are playing… they are running faster every day and worrying there won’t be a chair for them to sit down on when the music stops…
I was interested to know about the pattern for selling Nanoco shares since the tender, so I have been doing some analysis using data from the past week. I have tried to be impartial, but note that some of my investments are in Nanoco so my findings may well have an unintentional bias. This is not advice and you should not base any decisions on this analysis, nor should you assume this information is in any way accurate. Please do your own research.
According to my research:
5.8m shares were sold in the past week (45% at 22.5 - 23.5p, 66% at 21 - 23.5p, 34% at 18.5 – 21p). The selling “appears” to be slowing down (based on this very limited set of data).
We know a lot of traders took a high or maximum tender allocation at 24p – and it seems obvious to me that some expected to buy back in if the SP retracted. We know Lombard Odier have reduced their holding to 16.9m shares, which I personally believe is good news.
There were 12 individual transactions this week, representing 52% of all shares sold, which has helped push the SP lower. Co-ordinated sellers could try to lower the SP further by selling, but “if” this is trading activity to push the SP down I’m wondering whether they will have much firepower left. Of course, this forum could be abused to spread bad news and misinformation about the company as I’ve highlighted before in an attempt to induce some selling...
However… and here is my view… there are a lot of people waiting on the sidelines with money. £30m was given back to investors who tendered at 24p and the company still has £2.5m left to buy back shares.
So, I wonder whether the traders are playing a game of musical chairs with each other. Some are are waiting for the music to stop when the SP drops to 16-17p. I’m just not convinced how many empty chairs (sellers) there would be if it got to that level. Of course it is good news for the company buy-back if the SP did stay lower, but the SP would be expected to increase quickly if the selling volumes reduce and if those waiting to get back in think they are about to miss the bottom.
Again, this is all purely my opinion and I might be completely wrong. Do your own research and be extremely wary of the motives of overly positive or overly negative posters.
I have quoted below from a useful article below.
"The need to put to an end malicious postings on investor bulletin boards" (yorkshirepost.co.uk)
On-line shareholder bulletin boards and share chat rooms, are increasingly a forum for defamatory abuse, insult throwing, and misinformation deliberately aimed at undermining shareholder value.
If you look at sites such as ADVFN, Interactive Investor and London South East, home to three of the most popular bulletin boards, you’ll see a stream of commentary from investors about every listed company there is. Each writers’ identity hidden behind an online moniker (such as pauliewonder, mr hangman or bomber13) and emboldened by anonymity many of these posters swap insults with each other, post derogatory remarks about the directors and make accusations of fraud.
This is the saddest part about the current state of bulletin board chat. They discourage companies from taking them seriously, and make CEOs wrongly assume that on-going engagement with retail investors will just be opening the door to more direct abuse for these ‘keyboard warriors’. In reality though many of the posters on these boards are genuine supporters of the companies they invested in, and spend a great deal of time researching the markets in which their investments operate, constantly on the look out for relevant information that might have a bearing on the value of their shareholding.
Recently, I decided to post on this forum after years watching from the sidelines. My aim was to highlight, and counter balance, the disruptive behaviour of a number of posters who appear to have an agenda of posting defamatory remarks about the company and about its board of directors, sowing discontent and trying to talk down the SP. Disappointingly, I was very quickly drawn into engaging with them when it only gave them more air time. I requested that my previous posts be removed and I walked away for a few days. I do not plan to engage in that way with them going forward.
This used to be a good forum for healthy discussion about Nanoco, with different opinions and respect for the opinion of others. Now, any useful information is soon drowned out and it is sadly not currently possible to have a balanced discussion here. The disruptors tactics are a combination of misinformation, name calling and barracking. You will see these behaviours used cyclically by serveral posters – and I expect they will be used in response to this post.
It is clear that a number of people posting here took up the tender to sell their shares at 24p and are working hard to try and influence the SP down, so they can buy back in at a lower SP. If they weren’t doing that why would they still post here? Some will try to justify their reasons why they think the SP will fall, others will cherry pick information and turn it info misinformation, whilst others will reply to them to make it look like there is a lot of support for their opinions.
But, with such an agenda, these people are not providing a balanced and impartial view and it would be a futile exercise to try and reason with them.