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TS, you saw 12 disciples in the photo... So, now you think BT is the Messiah! Praise be, if he can convert you it will be Kooba next.. ;-)
Paul, the only thing is they wouldn’t have bought much more than nothing if they’d set a bid at 18p… Only £12k of shares have been bought to date at 18p (or a fraction under). And all those £12k have been bought by others, so they might not have got many of those anyway. With £1.7m in their pocket that would be small change for them.
Liquidity levels of this stock are low enough that the SP doesn’t tell the whole story.. For example, today’s total trading volume was just £27k and only £1,350 were bought at under 18p.
If the company had tried to buy back their recent “usual” of £49.5k today the asking prices in the book were up to 19.36p (with an average asking price of 18.82p). So maybe Cavendish decided not to do that, as it would have pushed up the SP.
I think there could as easily be an extended period of lower volume trading with wider spreads, making it more difficult for the company to buy back without pushing up the share price. With 40% fewer shares in issue the proportion of longer term holders will have increased, whilst speculative traders who tendered a large portion of their holdings now have fewer shares than before.
I therefore predict an increase in activity on this BB from those speculative traders, who will try to influence people to sell their shares. I also predict a steady increase in their nervousness that the release of positive news by the company could lead them to be unable to reinvest any significant sums back into this lower liquidity stock.
Hi Paul
The company has just over £1.7m left, of effectively ringfenced cash, for further share buybacks.
The SP has drifted on a declining volume of share trades. There was roughly £2.1m of trading between 19 - 21p (outside of company buyback) but only about £375k between 18 - 19p so far. It could be the company isn't as easily able to make purchases when there are fewer sellers without uplifting the SP (on the days there is increased buying from others)? One day recently the company bought back just £23k which was 68% of all trades on that day.
As for news, and as Barbon said, in terms of share buybacks at best price it would be better for the company not to release any news! But there are rules the company has to play within so if it's material news they will need to release a RNS.
In terms of what news could come along, it could be more material orders (but as mentioned before I don't think the company will have to notify non-material additional orders from ST) and the company has already said they expect more orders this year. Announcing a new joint partner would be good news and the company has said they anticipate that happening in the near future. They also indicated that the customer / partner would be display focused which indicate they are already courting that company... It would clearly be great to have irons in fires of both sensors and displays.
The cadmium clampdown in conjunction with our proven IP gives us some good new potential in display. Hearing that a major mobile phone provider wants to put the new ST sensors in their handsets is clearly the news we all want to hear but it's no longer about needing one single event as we aren't just working with one customer on one product.
When news does come along it should have more of a positive impact as there are now far fewer shares in issue.
Not sure if this video has been posted already. Go 5:25 into the video - no new info as such, but describes the ST SWIR sensor with a layer of our quantum dots as "Super cool"!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otVZI5oOz78
As for us proving we can produce a quality mass commercial product I'm going to trust that ST has done their due diligence...
I.e. if ST believes we can produce dots that are good enough to be included in their sensors, which in turn can be mass produced for use in mobile phones then I believe it.
Some positive changes have taken place recently. On 19th March 2024 the European Commission adopted changes to the exemption for cadmium in quantum dots for LED applications (see links below).
https://www.useforesight.io/news/eu-amends-cadmium-exemption-in-electronics-tightening-use-in-quantum-dot-leds#:~:text=EU%20Amends%20Cadmium%20Exemption%20in%20Electronics%2C%20Tightening%20Use%20in%20Quantum%20Dot%20LEDs,-RoHS&text=The%20new%20directive%20specifies%20that,directly%20deposited%20on%20LED%20chips.
https://ec.europa.eu/info/law/better-regulation/have-your-say/initiatives/13468-Hazardous-substances-in-electrical-and-electronic-equipment-exemption-for-cadmium-in-quantum-dots-for-LED-applications_en
“Previously, certain applications utilizing cadmium-based quantum dots were exempted from RoHS restrictions to accommodate for the lack of viable alternatives that matched their performance. However, the European Commission's latest action narrows the scope of these exemptions, reflecting advancements in alternative technologies and a commitment to minimizing hazardous substances in EEE.
1.Limited Exemption for Display and Projection Applications: The new directive specifies that cadmium can be used in downshifting semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots directly deposited on LED chips for display and projection applications, but now with a stricter limit of less than 5 μg of cadmium per mm² of LED chip surface and a maximum amount of 1 mg per device. This exemption is set to expire on 31 December 2027, signalling a clear timeline for the industry to transition to cadmium-free alternatives.
2.Expiry of Previous Exemptions: The existing exemption, which allowed for broader use of cadmium in downshifting cadmium-based semiconductor nanocrystal quantum dots for use in display lighting applications, will expire 18 months after the publication of the new directive. This change underscores the Commission's intention to gradually phase out the use of cadmium in EEE, aligning with broader environmental protection and public health goals.”
So, things are moving in the right direction regarding RoHS restrictions on the use of Cadmium in QDs. We should expect anyone using Cadmium Quantum Dots in their products are on notice and will already be planning to move away from Cadmium - in advance of - the current exemptions being removed.
If we trust in our upheld IP for the mass production of CFQD’s then maybe we will end up producing some of those dots ourselves, or selling a licence to allow others to produce them.
To add to that, we know Nanoco is developing next gen lead free dots. Again, we know other companies are also developing those but the company has said they would still need to use our IP to produce them at scale.
I think Nanoco is well aware that others can made CFQD's at scale - just look at Samsung...
Their message is that they have an "IP moat". Link below to the FY23 final results, see page 20. It is Nanoco's assertion that, whilst they know other companies can make CFQD's at scale, they cannot do so without using Nanoco's seeding IP. And that IP has passed the test of PTAB as well as a huge legal test against Samsung. So much so that Samsung had to take out a licence to continue to produce CFQD's using Nanoco's IP.
https://wp-nanoco-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/10/Final-Results-FY23-FINAL.pdf
Having IP is one thing. Being able to say that Samsung would rather pay us $150m and take out a licence with us than go to trial takes that IP to the next level.
The other dots I joined of course are that we have supplied ST with 2 types of dots, one tuned for NIR and the other for SWIR.
But... let me now play devils advocate. Let's say I'm wrong about the VD55G1. You might ask why ST wouldn't specifically refer to that as having quantum film in the sensor stack when they do explicitly refer to it being in the SWIR sensor...
So, can anyone find any information that makes them believe the VD55G1 doesn't have a QD layer? And I'll see if I have anything else to backup my "assumption".
So, the VD55G1 doesn’t explicitly say it has a quantum film – it is my current assumption and I have to add “I might be wrong”. If so I will eat humble pie for the next month. I am still looking into it!
But the next one is more obvious…
Following this link tells us the other sensor ST just calls the “SWIR Camera” which is a “SWIR Sensor based on Quantum Film”…
https://www.st.com/content/st_com/en/campaigns/sensors-converge-2023-demos.html
I think this video about it has already been posted:
https://st-videos.s3.amazonaws.com/SWIR-sensor-based-on-quantum-film.mp4
There is also an interesting PDF about it which may have already been posted here. It says it is ST Confidential, but hey it’s on the Internet!... You will see some more specs about the sensor on those slides.
Search “ST SWIR technology for Agriculture EPIC on line meeting on Agri-Photonics”. Dated 14 March 2022 by Eric Mazaleyrat.
Happy to hear alternate opinions!
As I say, that wasn't really ready to print. Some more interesting stuff on VD55G1, you may have already seen these:
Pages 15-23
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/image-sensors-to-enable-lowcost-and-lowpower-computer-vision-applications-a-presentation-from-stmicroelectronics/258442132
I think some or all of these videos have been shared before:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkcqmV_e7n8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6OcmmOlNfk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U_dxb78K3A
Ok, this isn’t quite polished enough to print, but here goes. To start with the history we all know…
We started working alongside ST in 2018 to create a new IR sensor for Apple. Apple were looking into multiple technology options and in 2019 decided not to go further with the STM / Nanoco approach. That was their strategic decision and we understand it’s not because there was a problem with what we were making. At that point we all got a lot grumpier and a lot poorer (M.E not so much..)
We carried on our collaboration with ST and signed a Quantum Dot Material Supply Agreement ('QDMSA') with them. Everyone knew it was ST as we said so in our RNS’s in May, July and December 2020 as well as the Edison Flash Notes in July and October 2020. This was a “framework agreement that covers both development work and commercial supply of nano-materials for use in various infra-red sensing applications over an initial five-year period. The QDMSA also commits ST to certain minimum volumes in the event that future commercial production orders are required”. From 2021 we never mentioned ST by name and they became the “important European electronics customer”.
Now, go back to the Steckel paper in May-21 called "66-1: High Resolution Quantum Dot Global Shutter Imagers" (link below but you will need an academic account to read it)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352802543
The paper says “QD photodetectors are a promising platform technology that ST Microelectronics has developed, scaled-up, and is ready to commercialize. They leverage colloidal QD materials to realize CMOS compatible thin-film QD absorbing layers in our devices. The QD films are highly engineered to create ultra-dense packing with a high degree of surface passivation.”
You will see in the paper that ST were using the VD56G3 and VD55G0 backside illuminated image sensors (BSI) at 2.6um pixel pitch and it appears they were applying a layer of quantum dots (ST spin our dots into that layer which they call "Quantum Film"). You will note that the QD layer is 2.2um pixel pitch later to be taken to 1.62um.
Now, if you look at the databrief for the VD55G1 you will note the pixel pitch is 2.16um. This is just one of the tells, there are others.
https://www.st.com/en/imaging-and-photonics-solutions/vd55g1.html
There is more - but my lunch break is over! So, will have to come back later…
Bachatanut, Nanoco have told us these sensors take many (5+) years to go from development to production.
On 5 July 2021 we announced that we signed a “Development Agreement (the 'Agreement') for a project (the 'Project') with a very significant Asian chemical company. If the new nano-material is successfully developed, it will be suitable for use in electronic devices across a number of sensing applications and end markets”. We've completed many development work packages so it appears to be moving ahead nicely.
So you will have to hold your breath a little longer on this one.
LordVM, Kooba is right to point out that ST are not explicitly saying that our dots are in any of their products. However, by "joining the dots", going back over the past 6 years I believe they are in the VD55G1. That a NIR product btw.
There is another sensor to come from ST, their SWIR Global Shutter sensor. That one intrigues me more but I won't go into detail on that as I am missing some info. I'll try very quickly to put my thoughts down now but it won't be polished.
You'll have to listen to the whole thing to understand that he is talking about ST. The presentation was in January - i.e. 2 month after the first ST order was placed so he is definitely referring to additional future orders.