The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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@NGR
That's interesting - On whose behalf are you speaking when you use the word ' WE ' ?
Don't suppose you're a spokesperson for or a member of the Royal Family by any chance !
We do have an idea. It’s just ignored and mistrusted by some of the more vocal posters here. I’m not going to listen to the presentation and Q&A again because I don’t need to so I’m not going to quote the pertinent comments. DYOR.
Good spot !
On the end bit…However, FactSet analyst consensus is forecasting revenue to reach $10.7mn by 2025 as the operational investment starts to take effect.
That £10.7m Cavendish forecast to July 2025 is £6m allocation for samsung settlement and the ongoing £2.5m from the r&d work. With that £8.5m same as expected in the current year the company are still expecting £3.6 -£4.8m cash burn. In 2025m with the additional £2.2m of revenue for the year forecast they are still expected to burn of £3.5m to year end July 2025.
How do they get cashflow break even in CY2025….Like Cavendish …i have no idea.
Density = sensitivity
On a buy back note there does not appear to be the normal end of day print out in £99k worth of stock though volume was no lower than recent days..so maybe a change of tack. Will see on Monday if they were involved or not i guess.
How can you forecast revenues when you don't even know what products your dots will go into?
It's just making stuff up out off thin air you might as well say $20m or $50m revenues or whatever figure grabs the headlines.
Much is on trust and Yole predictions of potential sector growth..same as when display was the thang..which didn’t pan out as anyone expected. Company presentations and Cavendish note rely heavily on such industry wide research pieces and it has a place but it does not give any clues on how Nanoco itself plays a part in it any such growth ..repeating that STM went into a joint development agreement with Nanoco because they want to make money from commercial volumes from SWIR sensors does not provide a roadmap as to how Nanoco do.
Since it is open that STM is the development partner and customer and that stm have produced demos and papers on using CQDs in achieving enhanced performance ..its difficult to know what the commercial density clouding any detail is about. I’m sure competitors such as Samsung Sony et al will be more than aware what is in STMs film and in what sensors. It’s hardly top secret…also if as i understand it Nanoco are free to sell Gen 1 materials outside of the STM agreement so you would have thought getting publicity on the efficacy of the wares might have been a rather good thing ??
PP beat me to it! had it on the clip board!
UK quantum dot company Nanoco has returned cash to shareholders through a tender offer after it received the final tranche of payments from Samsung in relation to an out-of-court settlement over an IP dispute.
Quantum dots are nanoparticles used to improve LED display lighting. The Korean electronics company was alleged to have breached Nanoco’s IP by using the technology. Last year, the companies came to an agreement in which Samsung would pay Nanoco $150mn (£122mn) in two tranches. As part of the deal, Samsung would be allowed to licence the technology.
At the start of this year, Nanoco received the second payment worth $71.75mn and decided to return £30mn to shareholders through the tender offer, which was pitched at a 25 per cent premium to the share price at the time it was announced. Among those cashing out were Swiss private bank Lombard Odier, whose stake has almost halved to 8.5 per cent, and chief technology officer Nigel Pickett.
Pickett sold 4.5mn shares at the offer price of 24p, earning over £1mn. The share price has since slipped back to 20p.
Management said the rest of the funds would be “invested in operational capability, enhancing future growth prospects, and improving gross margins”. This investment will focus on building out a new wafer device development and testing facility which the company says will be able to shorten research cycles by up to a third.
Nanoco is still in the early stages of its development. In the six months to January, it made just $4mn in revenue, and only $1mn in underlying revenue when the licence payments from Samsung are taken out. However, FactSet analyst consensus is forecasting revenue to reach $10.7mn by 2025 as the operational investment starts to take effect.
Please point out the " lies" and then we can all make judgements on what we believe to be the truth from our own perspective.
Presentations, Observations, Opinions, Facts, Statistics etc........... many have walked these boards before - my agenda like yesterday to get some fresh air !
Go and listen to the most recent presentations again and post honestly about all of these ‘observations’ you have made TG
Ddubya
A very good point that investors have literally nothing to go on to place a value on this business and Troublesome also touches on a pertinent point that prior Board guidance has in reality turned out to be pretty empty and unreliable.
As others have noted the only 'worthy' source or indication of future prospects is LOAMs buying and selling shares which always to date has been ahead of company annoncements, wonder why!
Hence following the ending of the share buyback programme at the end of May or early June if there is no signs through TR1 notices that LOAM is buying despite the share price no doubt drifting down its fair to say its unlikely that any commercial orders will materalise in the near future!
BT has made it clear he's not interested in who the end custoner or product is as the size and number of silicon wafers containing qd's cut and sold to the likes of ST Micro is all that matters.
But if you don't know what the end product that Nanoco's qd's will be used in how do you gauge demand for the end product and hence demand for Nanoco's qd's without which how do you place a value on both the share price and hence business.
This is perplexing as simply churning out wafers doesn't give investors any details on future growth potential in terms of sales, earnings, and cash flows and in what markets and what end products.
It also makes planning for growth virtually impossible as you don't know if the end product demand will grow rapidly, decline, or cease altogether so how do you plan for capital investment.
If BT actually believes what he is saying he's going to have a pretty hard time of it trying to convince investors that he sees no reason why Nanoco and its share price is presently under valued while in the same breadth stating the firm is only cutting wafers and it doesn't matter what end products the wafers go into.
This is even before you consider the USA legal obligations as a high tech silicon wafer supplier where regardless of where you sit in the supply chain you must legally ensure that your product doesn't end up in products supplying sanctioned countries and markets.
"Please be aware that elections under the Excess Facility have been subject to scaling back. In accordance with the terms of the Excess Facility, shareholders who elected to tender more than their Basic Entitlement have had approximately 99.2579 per cent of their excess elections satisfied."
Yes T, there is no visibility of orders for PI at least, so we are left guessing. I don’t see too much point in following too closely because the information that would move the SP simply is not available.
We could be very close to positive news or years from it, who knows?
Meantime, the SP seems to want to drift lower despite the regular repurchases. That’s another symptom of the secrecy that surrounds our marketplace, the end products and stages of development we are at with third parties.
I've always thought 5 years was 5 years but time and patience are all relative concepts anyway.
At least 2 years wait here before any commercial orders of any significance IMO and that may even be wishful thinking given the lack of detail and unknowns. Of course, hope springs eternal but grasping at straws does not encourage new investors. No mention of AVP here hardly now given months of speculation but just more dangling carrots such as STM sensors that are always just out of reach in terms of substantial orders - I think the Board know there will be no game-changers for quite some time and will just move the goalposts at the most appropriate time, as per usual tactic.
Kooba, all valid points. I should say the 5 year cycle is in reality quite a bit more than that and we know Nanoco were working with ST as part of the supply chain for the "major US customer" from 2018. I believe they've met all milestones and the dates haven't slipped, but we investors aren't exactly the most patient people. We all want news and we want it now!
Watching colloidally grown lead sulfide quantum dots dry in an industrial fab environment has tested my patience at times... Think I might go and buy a drone with NIR capabilities to while away the time..
That’s £1m out of £3m spent by the end of the day!
Once the buy back is completed, SP goes up on the next results as the SP determinate is nearly always EPS.
I certainly have my feet on the ground ..and the five year super cycle developing a new product is due now since they started working on this over 4 years ago ..it would be good if there was some real evidence on stm products of using not even Nanoco materials but CQD or nanomaterials , not just third party guesstimates of potential market expansion ( didn’t prove that useful with qd displays!) or for statements saying STM hasn’t spent money developing products with us for small sales…STM is a very large company and likely has many irons in the fire , its annual r&d spend is $2b . The potential in SWIR sensors is there and apparently our materials will play a part..soonish. Just a tiny bit of evidence would be nice…at least STM has finally allowed little old Nanoco to mention their name even if the one and only order from them is very small…maybe things can get a bit more open shortly.
Kooba, annoyingly you keep beating me to it each time ;-) I've been reading through all those papers and others - I also found no mention of Nanoco in any STM tech specs. I didn't see that as a bad thing. Nanoco have developed a component material and have their own IP. STM use that component material and have built it into a quantum film with their own IP. Two different products. These two companies seem to be working well with each other and have done for many years. We investors focus on the daily SP and half-yearly and annual results where I think the real value is in the 5 year super-cycle of developing a new product, where there seems to be confidence that there will then be a market for that product. This is what I meant when I cryptically said we've been concentrating on the finger instead of the moon...
We know the process of putting quantum dots on silicon isn’t unique to ST, but that they are the only ones who are investing in producing them at scale for mass market devices. It’s not that they have been investing years just to develop a new technology – we know they’ve been investing in being able to reliably produce that technology at scale for the mass market. We were told that already by BT. ST have been building an oil rig...
We also know STM built an additional 300mm fab in another country, i.e. more than one oil rig to meet supply demands of mass market adoption (not necessary just of these sensors of course)..
It's difficult to do but I've had to step far back to before 2020 to see the bigger picture and to look at the progress they've made working with STM. Doing that has been like watching a snail move using stop motion photography! So I feel positive right now. And we've not even talked about the 2nd customer / partner we've also been working with for years... or the 3rd one they told us they hoped to sign in H1 2024...
But putting both feet back on the ground, it's about turning that all potential good stuff into profits.
LordWM
I hadn't finished my analysis so didn't and don't want to set hares racing. I found a few likely candidate sensors but was looking for ways to get more confidence before posting anything. And I didn't know if what I found was old news to this BB. No time now for me just now and looks like Kooba and others have also done a lot of digging into this - perhaps way more than me.
But I've definitely been seeing green shoots, and maybe on a day that will finally dawn!
Can’t actually remember if this was posted but the scientific paper on STM using QDs from Feb 2023 . Unfortunately no credit to whoever supplied the QD’s or clues to the products to market featuring the QD technology. Its odd there is no secret that STM are using QD’s in the SWIR sensor technology ..but then they do not seem to mention it in the spec although it produces very enhanced results.
https://csmantech.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/14.1_2023-CS_MANTECH-paper-Feb-2023-V2.pdf
300mm fabs are go.
Could the VL53L9 also include QDs? Plus this names a first end customer (Lanxin Technology) with VD55H1 (apologies if already posted).
"ST is also announcing news of its VD55H1 ToF sensor, including the start of volume production and an early design win with Lanxin Technology, a China-based company focusing on mobile-robot deep-vision systems. MRDVS, a subsidiary company, has chosen the VD55H1 to add high-accuracy depth-sensing to its 3D cameras. The high-performance, ultra-compact cameras with ST’s sensor inside combine the power of 3D vision and edge AI, delivering intelligent obstacle avoidance and high-precision docking in mobile robots.
In addition to machine vision, the VD55H1 is ideal for 3D webcams and PC applications, 3D reconstruction for VR headsets, people counting and activity detection in smart homes and buildings. It packs 672 x 804 sensing pixels in a tiny chip size and can accurately map a three-dimensional surface by measuring distance to over half a million points. ST’s stacked-wafer manufacturing process with backside illumination enables unparalleled resolution with smaller die size and lower power consumption than alternative iToF sensors in the market. These characteristics give the sensors their excellent credentials in 3D content creation for webcams and VR applications including virtual avatars, hand modeling and gaming.
First samples of the VL53L9 are already available for lead customers and mass production is scheduled for early 2025. The VD55H1 is in full production now. "
https://mvpromedia.com/stmicroelectronics-expands-into-3d-depth-sensing-with-latest-time-of-flight-sensors/
I didn’t see your post LM. That’s the video I was referring to. 🙏
VD55G1 is launching in May. There’s a YouTube video on it from 10th April