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For the benefit of Non-Partisan and rest of the tik tok generation here is the concise version:
The bank will post a material (my guess £50m) loss at the half years reflecting deposit outflows and the impact of an inverted yield curve on a (negligently) unhedged balance sheet
We will also see current account balances fall further-my guess down to £5b (from c£8b in 2022) as attrition outpaces new account acquisition
The bank will signal a need to raise more equity- probably another £150m
The share price wont tank- 30-35p reflects that level of dilution with new shares issued at 30p.
I would not sell today- the hope is that a buyer comes in around 40p. But retail investors are not going to get super rich. Metro bank is not Invidia, and Dan Fumkin sure ain't Jensen Huang. The reason i am posting is to highlight the need for all investors to demand a change in management so we have someone credible fronting up the sale. Word on street is that DF is just an embarassment, and no one will deal with him
Cost is irrelevant. gilinski’s cost, ceo’s cost, my cost, ur cost.
NVIDIA is up 250x in 11 years, it doesn’t go up that much because somebody’s cost is a certain number. 400K turns to 100million for former younger recruits who held. the stock doesn’t care.
Tuan6
Agree with some posters their behaviour is decidedly odd posting only negative comments on one share BB for several years as below.
Hidden agenda anyone?
Cyberdoggy
Posts
(All Time)
565
Member Since
22nd Jan 2021
So here we go, just 1 example of your complete utter nonsense, you've just said gilinskis average is around 40p, when you said the following in Jan and no further shares have been purchased since.......lol absolute joker, make your mind up,40p average or 70p average
TwoGood2Die
Posts: 1,957
Price: 38.00
No Opinion
Gilinksi's Share Price Average 70p22 Jan 2024 08:28
As Gilinksi has invested £103m with an average share price of 70p there is every incentive in getting the share price to recover be it through cost cutting, gaining market share, or growing through making an appropriate and timely acquistion.
He sees Metro Bank as a highly under valued growth stock within a mid tier bank market ripe for consolidation.
If people inly see negative points on Mtrep why do they still hang around here and keep posting? There is reason behind that behavior as if they sold and go never come back and complain any thing as it dont have financial benefits to them . If they buy and wait for share going higher so usually they will support company sometime can talk about directions to share but not all time negative and never intend to make share down price.
Filter all of them .
564 negative posts over 3.5 years all on one BB, Metro Bank, as anyone can check your user profile and previous comments made.
I've been both supportive and critical of the mgt team you on the other hand are acting just plain weird!
Maybe it's you who should give it a rest lol!
Give it a rest Rampy ramp of ramperton, not sure what your aim is but you're miles off it whatever way you look at it
Gilinksi average share price is around 40p.
He bought 15% or 26m circa 215p mark back in 2029 onwards and a further 103m at 30p 340m. Hence is average share price is around 40p.
He won't be wanting to sell up sub 40p that's for sure and certainly not the ii's either nor will the bank go private as I can't see the ii's accepting a low ball offer or Gilinksi upping what he's already invested, too much risk, and more difficult to sell on the bank.
Instead he will slash the cost base to align with the mid bank sector industry average and push ahead with more specialist lending offering far higher margins which is currently under serviced.
The change to shorter opening hours saves material costs and won't have much impact on customer services and those with SDB's can still visit on a Saturday, you don't need to be open on a Sunday just unecononic to do so.
Given Gilinksi's been a LTH for some time his target exit price would be closer to 2 or 3 times his average holding and he's playing the long game looking beyond the current noise.
A small reported £16m underlying loss for 2023 is immaterial once the £80m of savings starts feeding through. Metro Bank has a strong brand name and consistently ranks highly in customer surveys.
It doesn't take much effort to turn the asset liability side of the balance sheet into a profit making engine and he knows his stuff. If both The Co-operative Bank and Virgin Money can be profitable there is no reason why Metro Bank can't be turned around.
I should imagine by the next trading update the bank is back on course, the economy is not in recession, and consumer spending is still reasonably robust..The share price should recover in the coming months.
Yup 563 posts since January 2021 all negative all on the same BB and all by the same poster you...sad!
More and more clicking on to what's really going on here
Regulators had to approve the last deal and they might not be keen on sole foreign ownership which might be the reason it wasn’t taken off the market last year.
Metro Bank need to work on the narrative and more than likely dispose of the current CEO who is out of ideas. Then cut, cut, and cut some more until the bleeding stops. Then find some growth levers.
Someone will probably make a fortune out of Metro, however when there's a controlling overseas shareholder I doubt it will be the other shareholders, which is why I'm not tempted to buy a load more. My guess is these will be taken out at about 35p in a year or two with his sweetening a deal for his favoured shareholders and I along with many others will crystallise a big loss. Mistake I made was when I saw the rights issue at £5 a few years ago that those shareholders would come out ok. Fortunately I sold half at a small loss at just over 150p in Feb last year but bought more at 50p in October.
Daniel Frumkin even
They both need to do something major or going to have egg on their faces thinking they got a steal at 30p
Might get some cheaper than D Franklin & Gilinski
🤣🤣
No more than D Franklin deserves
Good old Metro another all time low
I will share your thoughts with Gilinksi see what he thinks...maybe he's scheming to get the other half for like 20p or lower!
I'm sure he will not like 2nights sp close
He could well be.
Chatbot2
"Even then i doubt i will recover my money, but hopefully some of the 3,000 current employees wont be joining the 1000 poor soles joining the dole queue this month because a wholly incompetent management team has been allowed to run amock"
"Even then i doubt i will recover my money"
Key sentence so despite all your opinions you didn't listen and take your own advice and either a) don't invest, or gamble, whatever term you prefer in Metro Bank b) didn't short the stock or c) exit minimising losses.
Very convincing story since your account was only created 'Member Since 11th Oct 2023'.
So now sounding out what others should be aware of you have fallen foul of the exact same issues...
If you were smart enough you would have seen the challenges and impact of the Bank of England's decision to reject Metro Banks internal credit allocation methodology and how that would play out...but by your own admission you are blaming the mgt team yet with foresight rather than hindsight you wouldn't of invested, correct?
I will share your thoughts with Gilinksi see what he thinks...maybe he's scheming to get the other half for like 20p or lower!
Err- interesting Maths. You would gave spent £150m on owning a 52% share of a business now valued at £236m
Concise enough?
Chatbot2
"My final point is that you and others presenting people like me and other sensible posters as shorters is itself a bit silly. If i wanted to short this stock i would have talked up the year end performance"
Nope, if you had been watching the real shorting action was from 4000p down to double digits, from 2019 onwards...but you wern't here then were you?
Lol...well said btw!😅🤣😂
If only I had £103m on top of the original £50m I have spent already investing in Metro Bank I would be a millionaire already...
I've got Gilinksi, well actually Dora on speed dial so will pass on Chatbox2 comments that he's doomed and stick to pulling up parsnips for a living while Cyberpuppy will not doubt email her at least 550 times for the next 5 year's conferring similar...
I really hate it when succesful billionaires turn up having done absolutely no research and just throw darts randomly and blind folded at barn doors!
Just for all the stragglers struggling to keep up with our soap....my unbiased review of the week !
Mortuary dodger says keep the faith peeps, still much to come ...
Son of natter box opines ( albeit non-concisely) to the contrary we are probably doomed !
And Space Pup feels frankly a bit ignored (since Mortuary dodger got a new adversary), but is sticking to guns and reluctantly confers with Son of nattering, but more concisely ...
The own goals were all intentional to drive the price down
My final point is that you and others presenting people like me and other sensible posters as shorters is itself a bit silly. If i wanted to short this stock i would have talked up the year end performance, focusing on the actually meaningless statutory profit in the hope that the market was stupid enough not to see through it. I would then have a decent downside when management announce their £50m underlying loss in the half years. Because, as i said, 30p a share implies the market believes the bank needs more equity. So i wouldn't be shorting at 30p- or if i was, i would be putting it out there that the bank is insolvent- which it definately isn't. Its just zombiefied until decent management get us a decent transaction. Even then i doubt i will recover my money, but hopefully some of the 3,000 current employees wont be joining the 1000 poor soles joining the dole queue this month because a wholly incompetent management team has been allowed to run amock