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IMO the likelihood the threshold will be raised to £30-40 billion is very low. nevertheless specialist lenders will do well

Hope threshold will be raised to £30-40 billion. will give room for growth. but I think likelihood is low. nevertheless specialist lenders will do well.

Hope threshold will be raised to £30-40 billion. I think likelihood is low. nevertheless specialist lenders will do well

Thanks paul. didn’t realise they already updated their website with the date for the H1 Results.

H1 Results for last year was released on 31 Jul 2024

H1 results at the end of month if schedule follows recent years.

I think the leak came from the buyer’s side, it feels a bit hostile.

They likely believe that once the bullish H1 results are out at the end of July, the stock will rerate higher.

This was from 2021:

Statement regarding possible offer for Metro Bank PLC ("Metro Bank")

Following the recent press speculation, Metro Bank confirms that it has received an approach from funds affiliated with The Carlyle Group ("Carlyle") regarding a possible offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Metro Bank (the "Possible Offer").

Metro Bank has engaged with Carlyle in relation to its Possible Offer and a further announcement will be made as and when appropriate. In the meantime, shareholders are advised to take no action.

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Simple

they should just issue an RNS and move on. execute the plan, generate 38p EPS, distribute dividends, reach 437p target.

why silence

Why don’t they just issue an RNS addressing the rumours? The longer the silence, the more it suggests they are actively evaluating the approach, engaged in negotiations, or coordinating with the bidder before going public.

Maybe the more likely outcome is that Metro rejects the takeover. They believe in their standalone strategy. After all, a modest £255 million profit translates to 38p in EPS, and there are already signs they’re considering dividend distributions. What’s interesting is that they haven’t released an RNS yet. Could the bid actually be high enough that they’re now engaged in serious discussions? Analysts believe a price north of 200p is feasible. A very, very interesting week indeed. GLA

Remember, the board of directors has a fiduciary duty. They can’t approve a 437p price target and then accept a bid that doesn’t align with it

If you’re saying you don’t know about the £470 million in synergies, you haven’t done your research; it’s right there in the news.

If Pollen Street or any other bidder really wants to get this done, they need to offer a takeover price that respects the 437p vision. Discount that with a proper discount rate and you still end up well above 200p. And if you run the numbers on the synergy value, an extra billion or even half a billion is just a matter of holding it for one more year to extract the annual profits that flow straight into the PE firms’ coffers. That is why they’re so interested in this.

Assume there’s no deal. Investors can just hold the stock until Metro Bank starts generating £255 million in profit, which translates to about 38p EPS. That £255 million figure, by the way, is lower than what OSB and PAG are already making, so it’s not like they’re promising to invent a rocket to Mars. It’s a boring £255 million, yet it delivers 38p EPS. That’s why the 437p price target was seen as realistic. Some investors even argue it’s too easy for the CEO.

There won’t be any deal unless the takeover bid is more attractive than simply holding the stock for a few years and reaching 437p.

The deferred tax assets is worth 217 milion, the synergy apparently is worth 472 million. analysts have increased MTRO’s SP target significantly yesterday. do your research.

Once they announce the deal price, say 200 to 250p, the stock will likely spike straight up. We need to decide if we’re in and think through the risks. The risk is low, IMO, if you’re holding for the long term, since their target is 437p.

With each passing minute, we get closer to an RNS, and with it, maybe the last chance to capitalize on this takeover deal, if it happens at all.

As I suspected, the deal could come in above 200p

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14816333/amp/Metro-Bank-shares-soar-private-equity-takeover-rumours-emerge.html

However, KBW said any transaction would depend on the willingness of Metro's management and shareholders 'to retire at this early stage in their strategy', as well as Pollen's ability to agree an acceptable price.

Metro Bank shares were up 14.8 per cent to 128.8p by midmorning, having rocketed 260 per cent over the last 12 months. However they remain more than 95 per cent below their early 2018 peak. 

Peel Hunt analysts Stephen Payne and Stuart Duncan see 'significant potential valuation upside for Metro' if any deal emerges.

They said: 'Using our forecasts, which assume a successful delivery of Metro's transformation plan, and reducing the cost-of-equity discount rate suggests an ultimate valuation north of 200p is feasible.

Not sure what the bid will be, but it’s obvious the takeover price must be considered in the context of the 437p share price target.

As I said MTRO most undervalued.

June 14th , Saturday

Metro Bank receives Takeover approach.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uks-metro-bank-receives-takeover-approach-sky-news-reports-2025-06-14/

As I said MTRO most undervalued.

June 14th , Saturday

Metro Bank receives Takeover approach.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uks-metro-bank-receives-takeover-approach-sky-news-reports-2025-06-14/