The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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It only takes one up day on the FTSE and some stocks jump circa 10%
there will be one at some point
Its needed here
The FTSE is an unwanted dog, international investors staying clear! "They need us more than we need them" continues to haunt us!
Looks like yet another down day for the ftse, it's relentless at the moment, so weak compared to the ROW, we havnt got a chance right now
Can we have an up day today please???
would make a nice change
Me either buddy
I actually sold at a loss with RR i would have doubled my money if I held
Just glad I’m managing to bring down my average with this great opportunity. Wish I never sold out of RR when I did. Not making the same mistake with this.
JG, this has always been a 5 year+ investment. Once the profit turns which should be the next results there should be a progressive growth here like you see in the SP chart from 2009-2019. Yes, the SP is appalling atm but that should change as it is looking extremely overdone now. As i see it this is just a time to accumulate stock on the cheap; take the divis & wait. Simple as that. Watching the SP ticker daily will only drive you either to panic sell or go mad. There are no going concern or liquidity issues here. I'm amazed at all the panic tbh!
When you think about it, they havnt produced a set of figures that shows and op profit or net profit since 2019, its no wonder the sp is where it is.
And last year given the large Alsa write down, would have been a lot worse without the covid funding.
This only turns when become profitable it would seem. Market clearly valuing this differently to other loss making growth stocks, it would seem.
One more update in October and then nothing until year end.
I hope they weren't being too optimistic with that H2 guidance.
I would expect if they hit that FY ebit range they should be showing a fairly small profit after tax. Around £30m at a guess. That would be the first clear profit year since 2019 when they had PAT of £148m & in 2018 PAT was £138m.
You're welcome. Never buy a share you have big concerns about!
Great advice! Cheers!
Don't buy it then!
Looking at buying in at these prices but the debt is a big concern for me
Depreciation is subtracted from EBIDTA, not operating/net/before tax profit.
So assuming they hit the target of £200-£215m operating profit, then deduct the finance costs, and then the inevitable depreciation on all the buses, and you’ll be lucky to break even.
JG. the falling will stop at some point. I'd expect that to be soon but is really anyone's guess. For me the valuation is just way too low at this level. I bought a good load @86. I'll buy another lot if it goes below 80 as well
Paddyboy, not expecting it to bag overnight, but at some stage in the next year or two, to actually stop falling and slowly rise !!!
Well, they're predicted EBIT is 200-215m for the year so you take off the £82m. They should ultimately end the year with a decent profit. This is a 5-10 year play which has always been my stance. It seems a lot of peeps expecting to bag overnight on this. That's not going to happen here but a nice thought. It strikes me that people who've got in on this in the 90s are panicing. Absurd!
Revenue is completely irrelevant when you’re paying it all out. Both OTB and MARS are showing profit, whereas MCG is losing money.
Also, Both OTB and Mars have substantial net assets after goodwill is deducted whereas MCG has no assets after goodwill is deducted.
Yet MCG is trading at more than double the price.
Yeah, and that is high given the profit. Although with inflationary costs adjusted and improving margins/revenues this should offset the interest rates. Inflation erodes debt in the long term it’s just how they navigate these high rate periods. If they manage it this company will have a big upside over the next few years in my view. I did say before I don’t see a short term catalyst and I was to fast to pile in here in the 120-130 range as I saw value even at that price. I’m happy to ride it out and collect the dividend, it’s not a loss until you realise it ay!
Quickdip what are you talking about Mars has 1 billion debt on less than 1 billion revenue and enlighten us how much dividend does it pay ? Otb are you having a laugh please tell us the profits it’s made in the last 3 years and it’s revenue for the last financial year. This board has attracted some serious clowns of late the best one yet was earlier comparing it to cineworld ?? Seriously I’m a massive advocate for free speech but this rubbish is comical !!
Jnc, i think Stamp said projected debt interest for the year would be @£82m
I hear what you’re saying and do agree. They could do more. I am surprised the directors haven’t made substantial buys at this price, I probably have more shares than most of these.
It is abit baffling. The main negative to this stock is the debt pile with rates going up and up, the cost to service the debt will inevitably increase. Although with revenue growing, passenger numbers up, new markets opening and inflation “slowly” coming down, I do see this as a blip in the long term. I do view this as a longer term play and will review in another year. If the revenue declines or major contracts start to be cut then I would be considered but I think the underlying business is growing and in demand so the rest should follow in due course. Just my opinion.
"The BOD can only control the market so much"
True but I don't think they have done anything at all or at least nothing visible.. it is there responsibility to maintain shareholder value and they have failed miserably.. think of the guys who bought this stock at 320 after covid rally or worse who have been holding it before covid days when it used to be 400+
i have been banging about the spineless performance of the BOD from a while but there's only so much you can do as a PI.. well, you can write a hatemail to the IR guy but he's complete useless and you will only get a generic response from him like I did couple of months ago.. the only think i don't understand is why are the big holders not making any noise? I haven't seen any RNS recently about some II selling big time so can only assume they still hold a big chunk of this but by now we should have heard some disgruntled money managers.. another mystery to me is the lack of analyst ratings, what is happening here - does anyone know? I haven't seen any revised or reaffirmed ratings since the results
On what basis is this company worth more than £500m?
There are profit making companies with much healthier balance sheets now trading well below half MCG’s price. E.g MARS, OTB