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I've been waylaid by the pub so will do them at the weekend properly. But in essence I did some research in mid-August that indicated that the UK brick industry was making 1.4bn bricks of various types annually last year and the existing demand was 1.8bn bricks and the shortfall was being made up by imports that are expensive because of the cost of moving heavy bricks long distances. Using figures to build more houses expressed by all political parties I came to the conclusion that at least 2.1bn bricks are needed to satisfy those building rates. Obviously that will depend on the ability of housebuilders to gain planning permissions etc to build lots more houses. I can't recall whether I based it on 100,000 or 200,000 more houses per year. Will check. I also factored in an x amount for large infrastructure projects which I will also check. When I assessed the output that MBH produces, it came to something quite small like less than 10% of all bricks made annually. I got the figures by extrapolating from stats on the Brick Developers Association website which claims to represent over 95% of all bricks made in the UK. The issue I had was one of the MBH's ability to expand production to meet demand. It takes a long time to commission new brickworks but it seems they have increased capacity by 20% in the last year and may have plans to do more. Like most brick makers they have been scared off by the crash of 2007/8 when many in the industry went to the wall (no pun meant) and other companies that survived mothballed plants as a massive brick mountain built up with no takers from housebuilders. Apparently that brick mountain fed market supply until two years ago! Now there is a much contracted brick making market with a seemingly huge need to make bricks again for housing and infrastructure. Hope that is and remains true! I like MBH as it seems a solid company that will benefit from the circumstances but am actually a bit concerned that they are so keen on reducing their cash debt to zero in what seems to be opportune times to make hay (with mud and straw). It still has a family controlled element and I think they are concerned about the anxieties that the last crash caused them rather than seizing existing opportunity to expand output more via more capital investment. I will do the numbers at the weekend but I am sure that the current SP of 107 is sustainable.
TopGun33 - let us know the result of your deliberations! My gut instinct is that the SP has gone up too much, too quick and may be overpriced. I realise there is a shortage of bricks, and divis might soon be more forthcoming. Mind you it was defintely underpriced for a long while. But even so, seems too good to be true! I took some profit a few weeks ago selling about 40% of my holding. I am still quite well invested in the housebuilding sector, as I believe there is still upside to be had, especially after this weeks Tory conference. What do you think? I suppose i top sliced thinkingg I would just let this run.
I had a target price of 107 for MBH end of year results by which time they will have no debt. However the SP has exceeded my expectations by more than two months. I am going to recrunch my numbers tonight!
Since last post Good buying interest - still a hold for me There must be news out there. After all the volatility in last month a nice share to have in the portfolio.
Out there of 100,000 shares a pop - but price holding up well - still a hold in my opinion, see where it goes from here
Share price looking toppish around a £1 - takeover in sight? discuss.............
According to my calculations, Hosking & Partners have bought 13.989 mio shares since 26 Jan 2015 - interesting.
A purchase of 250,000 shares at 96p was logged late this afternoon- presumably mopping up stock released by recent sale by director,and some!
looking stretched on asset value and EBIT ...plus that 200k director sell ...made plenty of k here but now out ...dyor, all
Looks like a director sold 200 000 shares - oh well gla
Profit taking. H2 not looking so good, frentic growth has ceased. Costs have increased 20%.
Can only think it must be profit taking. I'm in for the longer term - looking good.
Can anyone give me any idea why the SP has dropped with todays news please ??
Not good enough for the market it would appear.
Paying dividends again. Turnover up. Profits up. Focused on future growth. Enthusiastic management. Clear investment plan . One for my bottom draw. BUY BUY BUY
Great results expected.............................100p plus soon at the very least !
Well 90p truly broken Onwards and upwards
Nice steady rises Looking good to break 90p soon.
Results due 20 July - looks like they could be good? Long may it last
Nice gentle move up after Buy recommendation on Hargreaves this week.
Why have 2 sells x 400,000 each on 15th May2015 just appeared on the screen.?Why were they not posted on the correct day?Why were there large buys on Tuesday and Wednesday this week with no sells at all on these 2 days?Is this legal?Has the share price been manipulated?Can someone tell me what is going on here?
Can anyone tell me why so many shares have been bought over the last few days and none sold?Is it to do with the AGM tomorrow.Maybe a lot of good news?
AGM is Weds 20 may
Judging from price response AGM must have been positive- anybody care to report?
Up she goes again, news imminent?