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WOS - do you think that the DQE agreement completely excludes the likelihood of another raise if a positive RNS is shortly released ? I would like your opinion. I know MATD stated that they had enough funds to last until July. Surely though, even with a DQE agreement they will still need some funds themselves to help roll out a drilling programme ? Or would they ?
From what I remember, we never had definite confirmation that DQE had actually signed the contract - wasn't it just with DQE, and awaiting to be approved last time we heard ? Do MATD need the LP in order for this agreement to be concluded ? Or was there another update which I missed ?
Investor you know the answers....
Raise: yes
When and what level depends on which rns lands first.
No need for more "research ". This the matad aim gamble.... lets see
Professional : They have form for bringing out the good news followed immediately by the bad news. So when the exploitation licence was granted a raise was announced straight afterwards on the back of the price spike to about 8p. And when the special purpose designation was granted they announced the Velo duster straight afterwards.
I suspect that something similar will happen if the next RNS is positive, with the likes of Hamm bouncing around shouting " buy now guys before you miss out - this is a definite multi-bagger from now on. Last chance at this price..."
Agree investor: I also think they will ( and should) use good news for a raise. So i for one will be selling below targets seen here ... .
Also possibility we get no LP (On time) and they announce raise below 2. That would be a top up moment for me ( depending on extra info ofcourse)
Professional : Assuming that some of the 4 items mentioned in the last RNS have been completed, but let's say not all of them, then they may release an RNS outlining what has so far been achieved, and then making positive noises that the other stages are imminent etc. That would be better than keeping everyone completely in the dark and then trying to do a raise.
Sounds good, but what if the problem is stage 1? i.e the Finance Minister's hasn't yet approved the non standard compensation payment mechanism?
@Aeschylus : Well I guess that would be the worst case scenario, and would prove again how Mongolian governance and its sclerotic ex-Soviet bureaucracy is not fit for purpose, so therefore foreign companies and investors should steer clear of the place....
Not sure I agree Investor. If all other issues are agreed, but its just a bit of (interminably) slow admin then it WILL just be a question of time. If however the Dornod guv is still fkn about playing politics, that would be more concerning to me personally.
I think they do not need a raise before LP granted as long as they do not invest in renewables any further.
A normal CEO would not invest anything from here untill they play Ball. Ie my base case :next news positive and long here from 2.8...
But this is Matad and MB so you can not go by logic alone unfortunately ie not a big position as this remains a gamble
That's why I wish that they had stated in the last RNS exactly how the Dornod guv had committed to sign Aeschylus. For me it was too vague to just say " he has said that he will sign ...." Was this pledge to sign made during a telephone conversation/ Zoom call or was it stated in writing ? How many parties were witness to what he said if it was verbal, and was it said in an official meeting with government officials etc ?
These details really matter in term of knowing how locked in without any wriggle room the governor is to the commitment to sign which was mentioned in the last RNS. Like you, I believe that his part is the biggest uncertainty - everything else is a matter of time. Hopefully he doesn't want to be sued by a second company though.
Be it good news or bad, I think we will hear some kind of update during March. I think it's clear I'm concerned it will be more delays but I hope for all our sakes and Thornogson's children that it is positive. Anything less than "Heron is 100% sorted and we'll be producing oil this year" will see the SP crater. Vague RNS's and promises by the Mongols just won't cut it anymore, IMO.
The last AGM was held on the 15th Feb 2023 so I would expect an update any time now even to just give notice of an impending AGM. Is the 2024 AGM already late?
Prof :- in a video presentation by MB 15.02.23 at 15.30mins he states they just identify and project manage the renewables projects they work up to being either " flipped" or funded. They're just using their in contry contacts and in house staff much like a consultancy.
Flipped" or funded ... what do you think that means?
I must say: i was not around last year. Did not listen to that interview nor will i ...but your words and what they stated in last rns means imho they keep all options open...including big investments...and do not forget : equity ( especially from point of view of company) is cheaper than debt today and especially in Mongolia
Anybody now of the opinion that this somehow is going to shoot to the stars is deluded.
Unless we have a very good RNS in the next week or so there is a chance this may stop the demise of this ride.
Relying on some here with a crystal ball ramping time and time again isn't going to or get anyone anywhere.
The ONLY reliable source of information is the RNS. If decisions have been based on the chit chat that does on any of the boards then yes it is a high risk tactic based on very information. Best to do a PEST or PERT analysis. As I have said, an RNS is due anytime even if it's jus a notice to the long overdue AGM. People seem to forget an oil refinery is being built that at some point in time must link up to Heron in one form or another.
Correct version no typos
The ONLY reliable source of information is the RNS. If decisions have been based on the chit chat that goes on any of the boards then yes it is a high risk tactic based on very poor and unstable information. Best to do a PEST or PERT analysis. As I have said, an RNS is due anytime even if it's just a notice to the long overdue AGM. People seem to forget an oil refinery is being built that at some point in time must link up to Heron in one form or another.
FeverTree : I looked through the GCM board, and indeed WOS has posted quite a bit on there. As you say, his style of writing is different, and he doesn't give the impression that he's from the far East as he does on here. None of the ' be happy ' or ' sir ' usage either. He writes on GCM far more like a European, albeit with the poor spelling and grammar. He still uses his rocket emojis mind you.
Roxy - you've got a bit of a nerve. You were super bullish about MATD, only north from here blah blah, and full of praise for WOS, all not so long ago. You're sounding like Hamm now, flip flopping.
Could be that Mrs wos or family member using using the BB with sign on, so dint assume the worst ask first
Pilsbury7--- ''People seem to forget an oil refinery is being built that at some point in time must link up to Heron in one form or another.''
Therein lies the reason for the delay. IMHO
GLA
It may be the root cause for the delay although no RNS declares this so it is just hypothetical speculation...Only Mike and Mong Govt understand the true position.
Doc, since you are a nayer and (saying that you have) never changed your mind from day one! Why did you bother to invest?
Have you been out your mind?
Again MATD will be multi bagger asa we get LP sorted.
The irony is that all the mr know all here know that LP is coming or wouldn't waste their time!
It is a matter of time to get LP, but it is coming, but poor guys who have sold their shares cheap.
Researchandhold said //BP is like a stain on humanity//
//Why did you bother to invest?//
It was WOS that convinced him!!!!!
If WOS is a paid poster or not doesn't matter as long as his posts add values which have been, unlike DOC whose posts have been always about other posters and add below zero values. Focus should be on and about MATD and not other posters and who said what all the time.
Guys LP is coming. AGM hasn't been announced as MB is waiting to get LP sorted first.
Massive rerate will follow. It could be tomorrow.