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Not exactly what I anticipated 6 years ago when I initially bought in to Matad, I suppose it has turned out rather differently than I expected, but have to consider the fact that the LP wasn't an issue when I 1st bought in believing V1 was the making of great things but seeing as this hole operation now revolves around the LP and sp slowly meandering at 4p doesn't fill me with the enthusiasm I once had, to me it has always been about V1 but I am going to admit that I am so disillusioned now that it hardly seems worth holding on but at the same time my fomo tells me hang on in there Jimi you've waited this long maybe it is not too far away for something positive from the company It is most certainly making me look at my investment decisions differently and will have to change my entire strategy accordingly, I hope I'm wrong and this will turn out better than how I feel right now but only time will tell,, GLA
Jimi. When I go through the scenarios, I come down in favour of the LP/SCP eventually being granted. They want the oil for the refinery and also it looks bad for foreign investment business if not...
Curious - I tend to agree. But I do wonder (and sometimes expect with MATD) if there is something we don’t know about, another curveball, that would throw all our logic out of the window. The fact is rumbles on and on and on doesn’t help.
It's seems hard to believe that a country can be so bureaucratic and incompetent, but ultimately I think that is what the main problem is, coupled with a populist administration and the anti foreigner sentiments.
Sure there is corruption etc. but im not convinced there is some heinous plot to steal back the field; not because they're not capable of dirty tricks, but because foreign investment would run for the hills if they pulled that stunt.
The activists' resourse nationalist ideology and xenophobia at times looks almost akin to national socialism (i.e. n@zism!) and that type of ideology is also reflected in some elected representatives, so they do have to tread carefully.
The way I see it, we are a pawn in a game of political Chess, but ultimately Mongolia wants foreign investment to develop so on balance and imo I believe PM will get the certification.
GLA
Like some people here i have been in a for while and compared with many i would just classify as a newbie. However i have been here through thick (not much of that) and a lot of thin (plenty of that). I came in with Share issue of 700m and always reckoned it would be diluted and worked my figures out on a billion share issue. At the moment it is 1.1bn a bit more than i had in mind but i do not think that V1 or size of it was really being talked about. IT was mainly Heron. We were waiting for the Exploitation License that arrived and the share went beserk for a short time and the clever ones worked out that was a good time to sell and derisk. I wish i had but i am in for a fair few. Once the LP arrives my basic targer will almost certainly be met but what i would really like and feels it owes me after all this time is about twice that number.and i really think it is achievable. Reading Positive Research you would think so but i have severe doubts about paid management consultants and that is what they effectively are.
So what has kept me here is MB. Yes i know the MB that everyone is tearing their hair out over and believe me i have done the same, and that is why there is so little of it left and not much of the same colour either. But through all of this malachy what this company needed is a calm collected voice whilst everyone else ran around like headless chickens albeit headless chickens in a position of power. My other reason is that the last O&G company i was involved in were run by a couple of Aussies (one of whom was not better than the Austrailan equivalent of a second hand car salesman. He over sold chances of things happening and i think MB is the complete opposite. I think he knows where he is guiding this company and although he has given low odds on achieving it i think may actually get there and that was sim;ply a small to medium sized O&G exploiter explorer. Now with events that is no longer the target or should i say sole target. I think with time this has changed to including renewables and i think it may well come to having something for Gas as well.
A lot of people are annoyed that he has not told us more about the IoM meeting. MB got well and truely caught out on this one and was not expecting the amount of deep research some people on here went to. I believe we will get fully informed about the IoM meeting in time and is something he has lined up with the government (another sign he is being trusted and relied upon) And in time this is what is going to turn Matad into a very valuable long term player.
Do not get me me wrong a lot of things need to come together and happen not least of all the
1) LP, which for what is worth will come next Monday but i have never been right yet so this will be no surprise if i am
wrong.
see next post.
"What if" scenario planning has its place. As does SWOT analysis and PESTLE analysis.
All help to develop a fuller more sophisticated appreciation. Researching for one sided bias confirmation is not very clever in my opinion, as it blinds you to too many facts and realities.
https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/definition/what-if-scenario-analysis-WISA
Continued ( Sorry about the delay i got called away)
2) V1 needs to hit and V2 support the findings. According to MB this should have a 20% CoS but in the hands of my Austrailian Car salesman this would probably be 40% with lines like the "phones ringing off the hook". I think the chances of success because of its proximity to other known and active wells is far greater than 20% but MB does want to over sell it.
This has been a pretty torrid time for the world over the last few years and for Mongolia who is desperately trying to establish a firm platform of democracy and i hope transparency and a yet try and maintain like all good politicians do the populist vote along with covid lock downs and more to point the severity of the chines lock down. I know of people who live in China and the stories i hear of Covid and Covid restrictions is frightening and nothing was going to happen any way with DQE till they re opened their borders anyway.
In the meantime the yet to be fully announced JV on renewables is expected to coming through at some point soon i think. Waiting for EL and V1 result.
We have been led to understand there may also be a possibility f a wind renewables at some point. Now maybe this is what the IoM meeting was about. It would need a lot of cash for the turbines etc hence the financier being in that meeting. But again all supposition still. But there is substance to all of this.
My personal view is that the Petro Matad Energy is for precisely that energy otherwise why not call itself what it is ie Petro Matad Renwables a far more attractive a name in the modern era. I think that PM Energy is for Gas and is hoped rather than expected and down the line. A bit like a new couple making up the room for the baby they will have when they get married. A long way off yet but things could move quickly.
Finally there are times when you need a CEO who bangs his fist on the table and shouts at all and sundry. And there are those who are quiet and seem demonstrative but a lot more deceptive that that. MB is not the first and neither is he the second but somewhere in the middle. And very possibly will prove to be the right person to have seen this through. Someone throwing tea cups at the wall of the Mongolian ministers and prime ministers and shouting and threatening all kinds of things was never ever going to get anything and we would almost certainly have lost the lot. Could he have been firmer yes very possibly.
Personally i am convinced this is a long play. So i will be cashing out at the right time and hoping to leave a few in too see what happens. No i am not going predict the £1 share or am going to predict dividends, too much to happen between now and then. I think there will be a share issue raise but i think it will come at a far higher base price than at present.
I am hoping to get out with what i want and still leave a few in the mix to see what will happen. GLA
Petro matad is a subsidiary of Petrovis. The “Chairperson” is the Petrovis CEO.
Summary. A company’s chairman is the head of its board of directors while A CEO is a company’s top decision-maker who establishes strategic processes and ensures that progress is made toward corporate objectives. The chairman of a company’s board of directors is superior to the CEO meaning a CEO must seek board approval before making any significant decisions.
If you look at Petrovis as a whole it’s not hard to work out how PM fits into the big picture. Think it was feb23 when a jv with sun something energy was announced. I assume IOM was PM setting up an energy subsidiary to fit in with Petrovis and the MG goal of sustainable, domestic, renewable and exportable energy. PM is a Mongolian company registered as an aim company presumably for legal and transparency reasons as the Govt has a vested interest in Petrovis. MG are also in discussions with the Germans and Chinese about renewable energy. There is a huge amount of initiative’s going on And probably an overworked staff. Arguably the LP could still be malingering in a pending tray. Maybe MB does have everything in place but board controlling content. I’m sure it will all come good in time in the order of business of the MG.
Oilman Jim blog - just wondering if anyone have access to his private notes on price guidance for Matad and would be willing to share ? Thanks in advance 😌
Oilman Jim's private post
Petro Matad (MATD) - Market capitalisation: £47 million.
Velociraptor-1 exploration well, Mongolia: 100% MATD interest. Estimated spud date: June 2023. Resource estimate: 200 MMBO prospective. Chance of success: 20%.
MATD was better at 4.2p. The company announced the spud of Velociraptor-1 on 14 June 2023. The well is expected to take around 30 days to drill and in the event of encouraging results, the rig contract allows for follow up with an appraisal well.
MATD has been covered in the private blog as of interest since its placing at 2.5p to finance the Velociraptor drill. The share price reached a high of 7.1p prior to the spud.
Don't bother wasting your money with oilman jim.
He just repeats the same old stuff and he won't give you any tips.
Whatever happened to the Mongolian facebook page?
Nothing on PM at the moment.
That's the best way to get info ..Do your research and stop depending on others for tips. They all thing they are experts but majority of time they fail..
No mention of PM at local level on Facebook..
Thank you Master re Oilman Jim, I was curious what he has to say about Matad, he has been very negative about Pantheon for a while