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do we think that pubs will do alright when they are allowed to reopen especially marstons and be able to start making profit again in order for the shares and themselves to go up. if so should i carry on holding my shares or sell accepting the fact i have lost my money???
thanks
Why have u lost your money? With the merger with carlsberg and other positive news it will come back up. Need to hold your nerve and not be distraught by it going up and down. That's what shares do they never do what u want them to do. All shares were down Friday which dragged mars down. I see it coming back up if ftse is up Monday.
Some pubs may fall by the wayside inevitably but marstons is in a very strong position to ride it out.
I wouldnt want to tell u what to do with your money but don't be disheartened by a few days of falls. It's up to you though.
It has more than enough cash to ride the covid wave. It also is doing pretty well with its retail sales in supermarkets due to the hot weather so not all down to pubs making money.
Cash injections coming in by way of carlsberg merger and sale of assets this year and banks waiving covenants.
Where would you put your money anyway, all of them are up and down at the minute.
Leppington has vested interest, that pubs should recover. His previous posts should be read as some of the issues facing CMBC should be considered. It is alarming to read Landlords have not been advised/consulted.
Faidealer Ive read through quite a few of your posts, and I do appreciate your position as a LTH.. especially seeing this board with lots of people talking about big numbers only to disappear.. you also made reference to delivery orders.. assume you are in the brewery business yourself?
Personally I would be more than happy to see this slowly get back to a price of £1-1.20 over the next 6- 12 months.. Im quite practiced in my research- mainly on a fundamental basis. I think the opportunity is a good one here. not withstanding macro considerations.
18 p. what is your timeframe? speak to anyone you know... theyre all dying to get out right?! have pint in their local, have a nice meal. Getting on flight will be a pain in the a55. this lockdown makes you appreciate what you have.. and as it stand the lockdown has not materially effected peoples pockets.. this is an event not a recession.. so all things considered i believe we'll see massive spike in sales...but as for the share price.. it may take a bit of time to get over a £1.
And yes I know fairdealer.. we will have to pay the money back.. but i dont think anyone can say when and how that will materialise.. National debt has been high for a long time...
adg good to see you have done some research which should show a level of consistency. Some of us who enjoyed a good dividend return highlighted sometime ago the wisdom to pay such a high div when the debt pile had grown. The group had increased greater debt with the aquistitions, particularly the Charles Wells deal. Now regrettably events have caught up with Marstons. The deal with Carlsberg is a God-send and will at least enable the company to reduce debt. Even though the JV does have benefits, I make no secret of concerns a Major partner may inflict on the Junior. Hope those thoughts prove wrong....only time will tell.
The full effects of the pandemic is yet to emerge, What is clear many Business sectors will struggle to survive, some will disappear, the upshot being huge unemployment and consequential diminished disposable income.
All the unknowns, it is impossible to predict when Marstons will return to a level of profits which allow a return to the dividend list. Even then and with deposit rates remaining at or close to Zero, dividends generally will not return quickly.
I disagree, recession is imminent, even the Chancellor is preparing us for very troubling economic times. In his words far worse than anything seen for decades.
One of my businesses was in the Cider Industry, am still connected to a minor extent, and have a number of contacts in both Cider and Beer production.
It is already estimated National debt has grown by £300billion and likely to approach 600 by the end of October.
Your prediction of £1-1.20 within a year would be very welcome, however caution is suggested.
AIMO
faidealer Id agree on the divi and reducing debt pile. american airlines did millions of share buybacks a similar way to return share holder value, ignoring the massive debt pile.
if this is truly the end of COVID then as per the Bank of England's guidance, we should see a v shaped recovery..
As for the chancellors words- i dont pay too much attention to the politicians. and im a central govt consultant :). they also planned for herd immunity when covid first came out...Bear in mind Rishi was drafted in at short notice as he plays ball- he was a junior minister. Hes saying what he thinks he needs to keep people aware to the worst case scenario.
But its naive of him to suggest a huge recession here when no data supports that and the BofE has said we will have a V shaped recovery. Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. so Q2 and yes Q3...
however, if covid persists into a second wave then yes this becomes a genuine recession not an 'event' related one.
My approach is invest in the longer term opportunity, but to maintain more cash than investments at the current time.
18palmerc, did you hang fire or bail? I said if the ftse was up this will be up as Fridays downwards trend was for a similar reason
A lot of buys in the 62.6 range. Paid off for them already
fairdealer
A very reasonable summation of the position
I would go a little further in that the jewel (brewing) has been sold off to support the pub estate. Personally I would have preferred it the other way round but then who wants a string of often scruffy and run down boozers ? I think a lot of new shareholders posting on this board should apply for the "privileged" card available (or was until recently) to shareholders, it does not lower the price of drinks but it does of food. Then they do a bit of cut price dyor to see what they think of the food.
I did and after a few visits I cut my holding sharply, there is really little consistency in the various offers other than for various reasons they go into the "don't return" column !
In short they are/were a great brewer but not a great publican, imho.
Bar hold, Admiral or New River will be very interested in their tenanted and leased estate, which if Marston’s want to focus on Retail (I.e Their managed and franchise style pubs), would be a good option.
I think as the summer months keep coming with the good weather we will see a nice decline in COVID. Hopefully pubs and other hospitality establishments should start to reopen. I am hoping for a good amount of relaxation for the August BH. I'd be very cautious towards the back of Sep. If we see a cooler September and then as October comes around we may find a rise in COVID again which will trash the SP.
Overall: Weak buy or hold for now - anticipate a good rise on the already nice SP as the virus diminishes and pubs start to reopen. Then sell or hold at your own risk into the winter and hope we don't get a resurgence of the virus. If it does come back and we go back into lockdown - we can always buy back in at a sweet low SP (not that I'd wish that on humanity of course - I hope its over soon and our lives return to normality with healthier portfolios!)
Hold and buy if you ask me. Some good upside here to come. Any whiff of a confimed outside area re opening or indeed the gvt mentioning we are at level 3 not 4 will
Send this north imho, silly to sell now dyor
Barchid, a trial of food in pubs is the reason you cut your holding? ever been to a JDW and eaten? Not sure where you live but in London, erm its not gourmet, but in summer the pubs are packed, both in the city and suburbs.. a whiff of heat and the booze flys.
London tends to be a different market too the rest of the Country. Marstons have a smaller exposure in the South East than some Brewing groups.
The quality and consistency of food and service does vary from location to location. I have on occasions made comments to HQ ( Wolverhampton) where standards have fallen below what customers are entitled to expect.
It should be of concern to read Leppington's experience that the company have not issued guidance to Landlords of how they can operate given the restrictions.
It would be good to hear from other Landlords to know their experience?
@tiebreaker I'm guessing of course, but if there are self employed franchisee landlords that are simply tied to Marston's for stock, would that not entitle them to use their discretion and possibly conducting take away or "dial out" for delivery of beers, possibly food?
If that is the case I wonder why there are those that have not done so?
@fairdealer that was for. D'oh
adg
Well it wasn't wrong to cut my holding back at the time, so if you think it is an odd thing to do, ie visiting companies you invest in, afraid to say I view it as part of DYOR
trent that is a fair point, however and depending on a Franchisees agreement, it would be unusual to allow more than a certain% of beer to come from other sources, i.e Guest beers.
That said isn't it reasonable to expect Marstons to give some guidance to it'e outlets in order to maximize sales?
@ fairdealer, perhaps so Marston's should be giving guidance for those landlords that are directly employed the company. That's a reasonable enough assesment, as Marston's are paying them directly out of their own finances, so what they say goes in that respect.
On the other hand, those self employed franchisees will not be getting paid by the company. Maybe they are getting something from the furlough scheme, I don't know. That said If there is a way for those self employed landlords to earn a bit of extra cash for themselves by doing this would surely be a good idea.
Another little uptick to start proceedings today?
Very flat today. If they spring the interim results on us tomorrow morning this could fly.. or drop depending on how good the results are :-)
Slowly heading back down to 50s.... Shocking!
Shocking that a SP goes down and not only up?!!
Very true i u are not able to wait and be patient.
If no patience then I would get out ASAP..
Excuse my ignorance, is an uncrossing trade of £1m at 16:40:12 anything to get excited about?