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Blah blah *deramping noises* blah blah *wanting to get in at a lower price* blah blah.
Sorry, just thought I haven't seen enough negativity in the most recent posts yet!
All looks very good for the near future. Need some more shares if anyone wants to give me some! Feel like this could go ARB 2.0 and possibly higher if everything pans out.
Of course there's always an *if* involved, but I like to think it's going to be more of a *when* in the near future but it'll be too late to get these prices at that point!
I don't recall financial institutions being open on Sundays? Mon-Fri is history, if anything it's going to be Mon-Thurs going forward.
I'm hoping for an early RNS on Monday. If there's a Sunday RNS, I will eat my hat!
I believe this can get to 7.5p easy from here. Especially if the court case goes in our favour. Put £100 in and potentially get £500 out? Sounds good to me. Upside of £400 if it pays off. Downside of £100 if it all goes wrong. I think it's worth the risk and I have confidence based on the movements made to get mining in the near future and with the investments made!
The more I trade, the more I learn to become emotionally detached from the money and simply believe I am making the most logical trade with the information I have at that time. I have just hopped out of KOD to buy more here. Why? Because KOD historically jumps up on good news and then falls back down to a steady level. This time could be the time that it rockets to the moon, but there is no way I could have predicted that at the time.
I got out of KOD today. Going to get some more shares in QBT with my takings.
iT mUsT bE bAd nEwS iF tHeY kEeP hOlDiNg iT bAcK *angry deramping noises*
In all seriousness though, great results. Really happy with this, it's what we've been waiting for. Well done to anyone who loaded up at below 0.3. Now, the question is: Will the SP rise on good news, or will it drop first like GGP always did during the Havieron project before rebounding to new highs...
Darlyn's post struck it right for me:
"RNS 2nd February
Pilot Gold Processing Plant
The Company's bespoke pilot gold processing plant has been operational since 20 January 2021. Initially, ore stockpiles from prior periods of exploration are being utilised to test and refine the operation of the plant. The stockpile from the Sep/Oct 2020 bulk sampling will be processed progressively through Q1 2021.
Following completion of the processing exercise, concentrate samples will be sent to an accredited laboratory for assaying. No results will be available until those assay results have been received and analysed."
They are probably right re no results until after analysis. I expect an RNS when the processing has been completed and/or when the results are sent off for analysis. From there we are looking at 6-8 weeks I expect for the analysis to be completed and the actual results will be announced.
I anticipate end of May, early June at the latest. Don't hold me to that though!
£840m mcap is very optimistic (i.e. £1 SP). I would say 10p medium-long term may be achievable (6-18months).
1p by next week is ridiculous. This company has an Mcap of £22m now. You're suggesting it will be over £110m by next week? That is insane. Maybe 0.4-0.5p in the next month or so based on expected news. But, 1p? Maybe when projects get underway and with very good results and JVs from the gold prospects.
I have seen Daz posting here before with quite a negative outlook (or realistic for that time). For him to have changed to a somewhat more positive position is a good sign indeed. I think he's a genuine poster here and as someone who has been in for more than 6 months - I am inclined to believe that this investment might pay off in the next couple of years!
Was just about to send that link. Now THAT is what we want to be seeing. Look at the size of those nuggets!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9325447/Gold-miners-strike-rich-unearth-new-deposits-near-historic-Welsh-pit.html
Correct. If I held it would've been worth £2,800 easy.
Well I became somewhat disillusioned with the SP over the last few weeks. I had become accustomed to large rises and then large drops before recovery. However this latest slump really got me down and I think I sold most of my holding at 23p (ish) to pursue CLP, MPL, and more ALBA which I am hoping at least one of which will do a few multi bags like GGP has done over the past 12 months. But, GGP fundamentals are as strong as ever which is what I keep reminding myself!
Though I am a victim of SP-watching which is why I sold 1400 ARB shares @ 6.1p last year...
Well. After today's RNS I can confirm I will be looking to increase my holding once again on Friday. Drilling at Black Hills has more than piqued my interest based on the preliminary information we got from there (high grade near-surface gold!)
GLA and I am sure the SP has plenty of a way to go from here!
I think this morning's resistance has broke now. Hit 2.3p sell on HL and moving up. Getting some crazy volatility in the prices though seeing it flick between 2.3 then down to 1.9 and back up again in a matter of seconds. MMs playing games perhaps?
If you are looking for a quick turnaround friend - you are going to be disappointed. I hope we get some good news by the end of March as estimated by ALBA. However, I wouldn't expect the SP to explode and it may not move much at all (especially with itchy traders waiting for that first sign of profit to take keeping the SP from jumping too high).
I think you're looking more like the end of the year for significant gains and possibly 12-18 months before we see some real multibags. Of course that's all imo. I was in GGP for 9-12 months holding on for a 3-bag and even when sometimes you'd see some larger movements, you just knew you had to hold for that gold. Same principle applies here imo.
Thanks for that Elir! Really good info there. My only concern is Rio's high operating costs (avg $14.50/t) compared to others (e.g. Fortescue at $12.50/t). However, having such a heavyweight as Rio being interested only adds to ALBA's credibility. We are more at the mercy of the market though as you say having such a short shipping season - under better climatic circumstances we'd have a larger window to sell into and maybe work the market a bit.
All-in-all though it seems like an excellent asset and either way - I believe it will be profitable it is just how profitable that matters. I also think if the grades are as good as we believe they are, then a JV is inevitable and not a case of if we will get one but when. Your post has more reassured me than anything else!
Anyway - here's my take on Melville
60Mt of Iron Ore at 31% Fe (67Mt inferred JORC initial resource estimate).]
31% Fe CFR China estimated at 1/3 value of 62% Fe CFR China
Approximate average spot price $70/t over last 10 years. 31% Fe CFR China ~$23.33/t
60Mt @ $23.33 = $1.4bn
Rio Tinto reported $14.50 cost per tonne Iron Ore in 2019 (higher than .
Assume $15/t cost for Melville (higher than Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Vale in 2019 as an estimate)
$1.4bn value with $0.9bn costs = $500mn potential profit. Alba has 51% stake = $255mn potential profit.
Perhaps spread that over a 10 - 15 year mine life - that's $17-25.5mn per year.
Alba's current mcap is £21mn ($29.4mn)
Notice how it blanked out s.L.4.G - i.e. waste product left over after the iron has been extracted from the ore. Just in case anyone was wondering what I had put there.
Been delving into Alba's portfolio and peeling back the curtain on their operations. Just come across the Melville site and how they are looking at arranging a PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment) soon. I see that Iron Ore is nearing its 10 year high at $160/t 62% Fe CFR (Cost and Freight) China. I notice that our Melville resource has a JORC Inferred Resource of 67Mt @ 31.4% Fe.
Now, basic Maths tells me that at $160/t for 62% Fe - I would expect 31% Fe is worth half that (half the final product, half the value right?) But, I am wondering if it might not be a linear relationship between % Fe and price (more energy required for extraction, more cost for disposing of more ****, etc.) Does anyone have an idea of what the $/t value might be for 31% Fe Ore?
I did. Managed to recoup half my losses from BPC here. Fingers crossed for the new ARB!