Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks SF! Schlemiel, I hope it isn't me! I haven't been spamming it - I only placed 1 order and it didn't go through so then I put another one on about 9.15 and it still hasn't gone through! They claim its because its a SETSqx traded stock, but nobody else here seems to be struggling.
https://www.lseg.com/areas-expertise/our-markets/london-stock-exchange/equities-markets/trading-services/domestic-trading-services/setsqx
Hey, I am still fairly new to trading - I tried to get an order through this morning and it didn't (no idea why). So tried it again and its "processing" (Trading 212). Apparently its because its on SETSqx which only auctions at 8am, 9am, 11am, 2pm and 4.35pm. Surely that's not the case for all brokers? You guys are all buying and selling just fine! Is this just Trading212?
Not saying that at all Heath. Not saying this isn't a bad buy either! As I said, I think I will be getting in on this one myself (yes, Li and H2 in the same portfolio!) I just think it's a more long term return (3 - 5 years minimum, unless they get a big contract).
I just think until all the hype over EVs and battery technology is over, Li will hold the spotlight. H2 will still be on the stage, but it's battery technology that's being pushed. I think H2 is far superior to Li for most applications.
Newboy, I agree. They do go well together. It's just everyone seems to be hyped about battery technology, but not H2. But, that will all change and I am willing to put money on that!
Honestly, for all we know GH and the gang doesn't want to sell. All this is pure speculation. Maybe this is all one big ruse to raise the SP!
It'd make sense for NC to buy the project Bebeto. Taking over GGP entirely would be another question I think. I'd like to see them takeover HAV (for the right price) and J/V Black Hill et al. We can only wait and see!
Just to highlight my previous post further, just watching the March 2019 interview with GH and CB. GH says "We've now got a stronger base (with the HAV find) to go out and find new projects", well they've got the rest of their Paterson holding with Black Hills. They've got FIretower which they're aiming for 1m oz plus a lot of other minerals. From what I saw earlier (£1.5 for 30% of 35m oz) that puts the figure for the gold alone there at over £100m, who knows what the scope is for the Zn and Ag is there? That's assuming GGP is interested in the Zn and Ag as I know the primary focus here is on Au.
Plus they've still got lots of other ongoing projects that aren't bad in some cases, like the surface gold in Panorama which could go further. We'll see. I just think GGP would be mad to sell now at £1.5bn.
Get them over here Paddy! Leave the other idiots over there though...
Havieron is fantastic, but what about those other potentially big finds? If GGP is getting sold over HAV, then whoever buys will be picking up all the other big projects. If they are sitting on a £1bn Gold mine with HAV, then we're all quids in. Great. I'll be happy and I can put that in my savings, maybe book a nice holiday (I'm late to the game and not a big holder).
However, what about Black Hills? It's not as big as HAV, but the drill reports are very positive "New drill results are considered very positive with several intervals greater than 5g/t gold, indicating the potential for a fertile gold system at Black Hills."
Then we've got the nickel, etc. GGP has a massive portfolio and HAV is just the tip of the iceberg - they can use the cap from that to fund all their other projects and still have lots of money for our divis!
If they sell up at £1bn, then they're probably selling not just low but very low. If Newcrest knows what's good for them they'll keep things as they are and try to make more cash helping out GGP with processing and making their money that way. As soon as they put in a bid, they'll start a war over it and it won't be pretty. As has already been pointed out, Rio would be able to outdo them without breaking a sweat.
Bobbust, been thinking about hopping on this one. However, I think there will definitely be a SP drop to c. 5 - 10p in the coming weeks so I'm going to hold out. I think you're on the mark there.
H2 is the future. No question. But, the world isn't ready for it yet and the reason why comes to the old adage, "money makes the world go 'round". The money is in oil, when that runs out they want something else to latch onto.
Hydrogen is cheap (or headed that way) and literally the most abundant element in the universe. So, they don't want to push H2. They want to push electric. Why? Because then you need batteries - now we're talking! Lithium, Nickel, Cobalt - all metals that are finite. There's a lot of money to be made in electric vehicles and renewable energy such as solar/wind. The infrastructure and materials needed is going to be massive and expensive. H2 is better in every way. You can store it with a massive energy density compared to batteries, its clean, its renewable, etc.
Hydrogen will come. Those metals are very limited and eventually it won't be viable to keep pulling them out of the ground. Also, the next generation will be pushing to move away from batteries and the environmental cost of using them (hardly better than fossil fuels) and that's when H2 will come in. I see big things from companies like AFC in the coming decade (or earlier), but H2 won't be the mainstream for a long time yet.
Seeing on here as well, AFC need to up their game re: communication and certainly pushing their product. Its great to see the technology being developed, but surely you want to make to market need? Not just make and then hope that's what the market is looking for?
Just my tuppence.
Full disclosure - I hold shares or will be buying shares in companies which are involved in exploration, development and mining of Lithium,
Hmm, well Daz, you make a good case for takeover. If they do move in for takeover, what would be your guess for a price? I've seen 0.12p floated about (would rather £0.12 though haha!)
If KOD was taken over by SC, they would be able to retain BA and SZ anyway surely?
Good points there Daz (re: Li2CO3 and the SC situation). "Why does SC need KOD?" Or do they just want (rather than need) someone to oversee the operation because they don't want to be involved with the actual mining?
I didn't think so AR. Literally all the info I have found on SC comes from KOD, they don't have much of an online presence! That's reassuring.
Ahh, it all makes sense now. Just been reading KOD's description of SC. They will sell the raw Spodumene to China for processing (probably as the environmental controls and operating costs are lower). KOD couldn't process the stuff themselves without stepping on SCs toes.
Cheers for that AR. Could/would SC take over KOD and run the production themselves? Or is that not really their thing? Also, why wouldn't KOD take the Li and produce Li2CO3 as the final product is worth far more than Spodumene?
AR how confident are you that SC will come through? That is the biggest risk from where I am looking. I hope they will come through and get this development going sooner rather than later. I'm not too worried as it's not like I've invested a lot of money, but my biggest fear is that SC will leave them high and dry to get bought for next to nothing like some of the others here. Not saying it will happen, but it's definitely a possibility. Thanks for your clarification on the Li pricing as well (re: brine v rock and lack of proper spot pricing).
I agree with Antigua. However I am also with Oldie as well. I'm not investing based on the rumour mill. We can all see something big is going down with the drilling they've been doing and the data that's been coming through. The added "rumour" from someone in Oz is just adding fuel to the already roaring fire. "Bigger than Kalgoorlie"? Maybe, maybe not. But even a result half or even quarter the size of that would leave most of us here happy as Larry.
Interesting point on the calculated price of Spodumene, Daz? $680 seems a bit high from that pricing you've got there (480 - 500) especially as that is CIF China, so that's higher than the actual material cost. Curious where they've got that price from?
A chart* I've found showed Spodumene at over $900 in summer 2018, but its consistently fallen since then (finding spodumene price charts is hard without subscribing or paying stupid money to view). Hopefully with demand going up over the coming years, it will become more valuable. The idea being that Li becomes as valuable to the economy as copper (and its well on its way with EVs, portable devices, etc.)
Why isn't KOD looking to produce Li2CO3? Surely they could maximise profits with further processing? Obviously, I'm not au fait with the additional costs involved in that - but, someone must be doing it and if KOD process it at the source, they're not worrying about margins that other companies do when buying in Li2O to process it.
* https://seekingalpha.com/article/4266548-lithium-miners-news-for-month-of-may-2019
Cheers for that Daz. The feasibility study looks quite promising. The dev cost looks impossible for KOD, is SC willing to put up at least $117m to get the operation off the ground (or a large amount close to that)? I know BA claims they are willing to invest, I guess that is the real question here isn't it? It's not about the company, it's all about the investor. We might as well be buying into SC here as they are holding all the cards. The only other option is for KOD to do all the work to get licensing approval and then sell it off to someone else for a fraction of its production value.
Obviously these large scale projects always go over budget so we'd be expecting at least a 2-3 year repayment as more likely than 1.7. 3 years repayment is the golden rule for most business investments (with decent profitability after). So that's not worrying. The whole project is great from that study with up to $300m profit. But, it's all about whether SC is going to pay up.
But looking at the situation with Suay Chin, I am wondering what is going on and I wouldn't be surprised at a sell off. But, we will see if that cap comes in from them.