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Oddly I hve seen no comments in the press today re MARS numbers of yesterday, which is unusual as they normally have a fair bit of coverage, perhaps the city scribblers are finding it difficult to evaluate as they are not comparing like to like.
Fairdealer's comparison of the property values going in different directions at MARS & M&B was interesting as we have often commented here as to whether Findlay had them valued to perfection or beyond, I am happier seeing the mark down as I guess this is more realistic especially bearing in mind RF's failure to sell Pitcher & Piano's portfolio at book cost well before covid days. The fact RF valued property internally is not usually a good sign either. Happily the new team valued them externally so we now have a much better idea of where we really are financially.
Hargreaves Lansdown -refer to actually a quite good set of results but the Company statement saying that the worst of the pandemic is over has been taken the wrong way by the market.
Debts down. Equity up is what I look at. We also now have free cash flow.
DarkArches
You say it was a bad day for MARS to be reporting on, in fact seasoned holders could assure you that every day they have announced results since 2016/17 has been a bad day, that was when they were 140p and higher with a very nice yield.
Sadly after Findlays "shrewd" management we are now less than half that level & with no yield at all, I would like to see the stock code change from MARS to MAS, indicating it is for masochists only...
Results could have been shown better and take a lot of reading. A simpler summary would have been clearer.
I looked at the group balance sheet. There is shown an an u/lying loss but free cash realized after the pubs have re-opened. However with the JVC profits of sale added in an overall profit.
The Financial statement also shows a rise in the overall equity value of this Company over last year, and a statement of fact that no dividends have bene added in from the JVC income since the pub -re-openings that will be added in 2022 - so in my mind it is a shame the full picture here was not shown with future expected dividends? even if a guestimate all things considered. Debts and borrowing down Equity increased now Total equity Gbp406.4m up from Gbp248m.
So overall actually quite good considering the pandemic hit. A lot of other business are far worse off than Marstons!
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* why do you think losses are predicted until 2025
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Amatureinvestor
Correct there is in fact no mention of profit forcasts
Not wanting to run point on this I give way to others with more technical ability
For me though its all about common sense, debt and the ability to service it
Kind Regards
The Jimster
Kind Regards
The Jimster
Trent
The old maxim "never as good as it looks, never as bad as it looks" holds true here, imho.
Findlay got us into this mess but thankfully we have someone else to hopefully get us out of it.
This is the perfect storm isn't it? results that could be better, a "new" covid variant, possibly affecting Christmas trade blah blah blah.
Proper squeaky bum time.
777jimster - why do you think losses are predicted until 2025? I can't see anything regarding future profit forecasts with the announcement.
This is also a bad day/period for Marstons to be reporting on, with hospitality venues reporting Christmas bookings being cancelled due to Omicron concerns.
mmmm...thanks for the comments so far...apreciated
I'm looking at a massive loss if I sell at this point
I'm not inclined to do so
Not convinced there are 'safer' plays anywhere else either for that matter :)
The way I'm looking at it is Marstons have a 'credible' route to clear debt and that will have to do for now
Potential gains are huge...but they must stay solvent in the meantime...I think they can do it...on paper...eheeem :)
Kind Regards
The Jimster
FD
Thanks for your update, when I read through the numbers RNS earlier I felt that it posed more questions than answers & you have highlighted those questions, much appreciated.
Normally last 5mins, not sure it’s good news.
The headlines paint a fair picture, however on initial analysis these are points that strike me.
Even after the capital reciept from Carlsberg (>£225m) the company recorded loss B 4 tax of £100m.
M&B recorded loss B4 tax of £42m
MARS still owe >£150m of the facilty to see them through the pandemic.
M&B have repayed, in full the facilty to see them through the pandemic.
MARS have had external revaluation of estate (previously undertaken internally). That revaluation is £1.9Billion, £102m lower than previous and resulting in an Impairment.
M&B estate Re-valued externaly. Value amounts to an increase of £150m above previous yrs valuation.
Contribution from CMBC is interesting. MARS share (40%) amounted to a loss even after reopening.
Barchid, the contribution from Brain's interests me and am endeavouring to dig the numbers out.
What is clear sales increased overall by 102%, which will include the contribution from 107 Welsh Pubs.
Using the number of Pubs under Marston control (+- 1500), the numbers do not seem so good.
102/1500 x (1500-107)= 95%
Unless the Brains Pubs performed badly (probable) the figures are not so good.
The statement " Plan to reposition 290 food led Pubs", does this mean we are going up market???
The offer/approach from Platinum earlier this year could well have given Shareholders fair value had the offer been better explored.
The Dividend is passed ( no surprise there).
Analysis of the accounts continue
jimster
Sales lower than debt until 2025 doesn't look promising either.
Why on earth the old CEO, RF, did not pursue the offer above 100p one can only guess at, but talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth ?
The other thing that bothers me is the Welsh, (Brains) estate we are now managing are described as high quality, which by various accounts of them could be akin to thinking a pig with lipstick looks attractive.
Losses predicted until 2025 ?
mmmm
Looks decent to me, encouraging going foward. Debt management key for me and appears we have that under control.
Something in line with Mitchell & Butlers I expect.
Have a feeling they are hardly going to disappoint.
The Company share price is down on what they would have liked and certainly the last statement was positive.
If anything untoward had occurred then the Company would already have been under a duty to have notified the market of any negativity.
I hope we have something like the
Uncertainty is really the biggest problem here, but truly inevitable. The results are likely to be irrelevant, given the Covid resurgance. Time to hold on and enjoy the ride.
Providing they match M&B's performance, they will be satisfactory.
Apart from accounts, the market is likely to mark down ALL hospitality stocks this coming week. The impositon of mask wearing in shops and Public transport, is very likely to be extended to Restruants, Pubs etc as there is a growing belief of inequality within Retail businesses. You can go into a food store for 30 minutes and must wear a mask. Go into a Pub for 2 hours and not required.
I do not agree with the whole phylosophy in handling this disease. Sooner or later it will be fully realised the disease must run it's natural course, can we really keep returning to the same control mechanisms, which imo create as many problems, healtth and otherwise as allowing Covid to run it's course.
Markets do not like this constant uncertainty.
...due Tuesday. Though these are inauspicious times!
No sweat Barchid. Anyone that's had a holiday cancelled within the last 12 months or so knows the score. Hopefully you'll be able to get out there at some point in the new year. If SA is somewhere you've been before and liked, then it's a pain in the @rse when you can't get there.
North Africa is as about as deep as I have been on that continent myself. We went to Tunisia on our honeymoon some 20 years ago. My first time ever outside the EU. It all adds to the experience, that's for sure.
As you may well know, I'm quite an advocate of Zakynthos. I always swore that I'd never ever go to the same place more than twice, as I'd always wanted to see as much of the world as I could afford, but an old workmates badgered the s_ _ t out of me to "go to Zante, to to Zante"so I relened in 2006.not been anywhere else since. there's something about the place that keeps drawing me in. Maybe you will try Kalamaki for a week for yourself to see what you think
Trent
Thanks for your sympathy, it is a kick in the goolies but onwards & upwards, hopefully it will be reopened down there soon, so it looks like Pedigree not Castle for me in January eh ?
Appreciated your thoughts
That's rough mate. I'm sure most of us know what a cancelled trip feels like.it's no fun at all.
When we went to Zakynthos last month after last year's trip was cancelled, it felt like a really huge thing.
Fingers crossed you won't have to wait too long for your trip mate.
Apart from Whitbread we have suffered the biggest fall today in the sector. Have whispers disclosed next week's figures?