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A very misplaced statement. Whitbread is a very much better managed company. It's shareholders are soundly regarded.
Whitbread results are better than pre-pandemic, they are undertaking a share buy-back which will return excess capital to shareholders. They increasing Dividend, oh for Mars to follow suite...no hope as any return to the dividend list has to be approved by the Banks.
Whitbread and M&B made a good decision 2+ years ago when they both raised funds. Marstons did not, RF was too pre-occupied with the Sale of the Brewery. A cash raise at that time would have relieved MARS of the debt anchor which will continue the financial inertia so evident.
Insofar as another bid from Platinium, if last time is anything to go by, the BOD will not inform SHs until it suits them. Do'nt forget as I continue inform, Carlsberg will have a big say in any disposal of Marston's assets.
It could be,as WTB have made clear their intensions to expand the Motel chain in UK, they ( Whitbread) may "cherry-pick" Marstons better sites.
It is all if's and but's,
Whitbread's style of management is superior
AIMO DYOR.
KT-I would feel the Directors might start buying in here first, as well as some market pension growth schemes driven by sector growth. If Whitbread are used as a barometer we should follow the market consensus. The fact in a similar way Marston have already declared they are profit making again is true to what Whitbread have said previously and today.
If a takeover is to happen we should expect hearing something soon as no doubt if any stalking horse waits the price here will rise after the next sales results are released, which should be a lot better on a sector returning post pandemic. We will start to become a very interesting share here soon I am sure.
I wonder if Platinum Equity Advisors will launch another takeover bid while the price is so low?
You never know, they could have commissioned a fund to build a large position in the background to sell to them to have a big share holding ready for the bid launch to force it through now.
As I said the the other day this sector is recovering fast post pandemic. I see Whitbread on the back of results is top of the shop today, but many will see this as a trend for a recovering sector! Pick up a bargain here whilst you can! IMHO and DYOR.
As Marston turned to profit last year (like Whitbread) we could see a similar return to form here. Maybe in line the BOD can soon release the Marston's results. I wonder if the BOD will be buying options soon?
results out in a couple of weeks, looks like this has reached the floor, and someone is buying up stock and trying to keep the price down.
Official statements from the Compony have to be approved by their legal team and the accountants. I remember reading that the Company is now making good profits and sales are being increased to be over GBP2B or twice that of debt.
It is true if the sales figures keep improving we expect to see another approach very soon. What we do need is to release an updated and continuing growth platform and I expect this to follow soon. The govt. has helped with reduced tax on draft beer produced and with P&M being fully tax deductible. I expect results to be good and follow Whitbread return to form. They will be only selling pubs that they feel are better served by someone else again to reduce costs/ debt and increase profitability. Good sound decision making. DYOR -Suggest one or two here read the last statements.
Disposing of Pubs is not so attractive in the current economic situation, plus Marstons are handcuffed by the JV with Carlsberg. The JV requires Marstons to retain at least 50% of their Pubs based on the numbers held in October 2020. The Brains estate is not included as Marstons only lease those Pubs for 20 years.
sure debt bad etc ect.
however, there was a takeover bid last time, so someone see value.
Given how cheap the share is now, and the developing of the carlsberg relationship, maybe another takeover bid is in the works, maybe Tesco's as they are expanding into pubs?
Yup , you are right - the debt does suck and yes it is compounded by a serious shortfall in customers not prepared to pay increased prices for an inferior product, as last night 4 items were not available off a fixed menu !!! If you aint got it , you cant sell it !!! Again no Pedigree on tap - a premium beer not available ! I wonder if the BOD are still drawing their salaries, bet they havent missed the payment twice !!! I am only too aware that times are tough , but decisions have been made that now seem questionable to say the least - We all need Mars to be successful, or we might soon be calling it Carlsburg !!!!
if you could not pay the mortgage not once but twice, would your Lender and for that matter you, be worried?
Does that answer your question?
are you all paid de-rampers? The debt sucks, but is it really that bad?
Shaperite/FD
We do indeed all understand the serious straits Mars are in, but the fatuous noise from the apparent rampers prominent on this BB always studiously avoids the debt, clearly most people do read both sides of a balance sheet but I guess their exercise is to pass it on to the greater fool theory ?
I can see no other reason why people come up with nonsense numbers not even good enough to write on the back of a *** packet to try to tempt some poor ill informed punters in to the stock.
It really is a sad way to invest, trying to flush in ill informed punters, but some of these characters who post their regular puffs appear to be quite shameless.
taking into account debt, the property assets, and the Carlsberg Marston Partnership, what realistic MCAP value would you place on the business?
I personally believe a good fair value is £500m, however I would very much be interesting to know what others are thinking and worked out.
SHAPERITE, we are on the same Hymn sheet. Have saying for months any company that breaches9fails to pay) it's loan agreements, has serious problems. Those loan agreements were based on very favourable terms and yet MARS were unable to meet it's obligations. Now revised terms have been agreed with Loans on a mix of floating and fixed rates. Against this background, it is difficult to see how sound Financials can be achieved without a large injection of capital.
Hope Pedigree continues to be brewed, seems Banks Bitter is hard to find even in the Wolverhampton area.
Gentlemen, As we all understand , a dedt of £1 billion is not negated by a portfolio of prorerty said to be valued at £1 billion
especially when the cash flow to service the said first billion is in negative territory ! Been with this share for over 5 years and this is by far the worst position they have been in, they have set an agenda of selling off some of their estate in an attempt to assuage their creditors, but in this climate who will pay premium prices for a depreciating asset ??? Tougher times ahead - but I STILL LOVE PEDIGREE !!!!!
Karl having been here more than 5 years, short term is only for Traders, not me.
Have seen it all, a CEO who had pretensions of Grandeur, consequently allowed a debt pile to accumulate to the level now seen.
How have you arrived at a £1b valuation of the CMBC company?
Mmmmm. Things must have changed since I retired. When I was working I don't think I ever met an investment fund manager with an investing horizon approaching 10 years....10 months would have been a push.
you are looking at things into short term, there is tons of profit in this in the longer term with the macros going back to pre-2020.
even covering debt, to buy up marstons estate (£1b property) and the 40% stake in Carlsberg/Marstons for circa £2b is a good value. The property estate in affect nulls out the debt if
a big fund could easily acquire this using cheap lending facilities to yield a healthy profit over 10 years.
The Headwinds are Gale force. How ever patient, the Debt has to be maintained. One hell of a task in the current environment.
I only have a small holding here, its going to be a long term turnaround and lots of factors can upset things,we need inflation down, energy costs down, economy turned around, people need to feel better off before splashing out on expensive pints and meals and nights out, baby steps here will take time MARS needs to achieve what they said they would debt below 1b asap and increase margins/lower costs, i accept could be 2-3 yrs before this looks good again , but i have time and the patience, good luck all
larry quite right. Pleased someelse has picked it up. I did not want to keep harping on about debt, which does get ignored.
It is all very well rampers, who are basically Traders, trying to influence genuine Long term Investors.
not sure those maths quite adds up without including the 1.6b debt :(
Marston owns 40% of the Carlsberg Marstons partnership, and owns over £1B worth of property estate.
Currently for less than £300m you can now buy Marstons and asset strip the whole lot to make mega £££££ of profit.
Hopefully we see another take over bid soon, the last one was for 100, so would be 194% profit from here!
Especially as they have now secured through their partnership the rights to distribute and manufacture Kronenbourg 1664 in the UK -one of the Uk's most popular Lagers.
Would be nice to order some warmer weather too, ha.ha! Fingers crossed!