Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Started: Hedgehog100, 4 Jun 2024 15:23
Last post: Hedgehog100, 4 Jun 2024 15:23
A complementary area to digital mental health care is design in mental health:-
"Design in Mental Health"
"4-5 JUNE 2024
MANCHESTER CENTRAL"
https://www.designinmentalhealth.com/
"The Purpose
Design in Mental Health Conference, Exhibition and Awards is the annual event where organisations and professionals interested in advancing the cause of good design in mental health settings meet to learn, share and explore collaboration.
The event is organised by Step Exhibitions with Design in Mental Health Network, a charity which aims to improve mental health outcomes by promoting knowledge exchange, co-production and quality standards in design in mental health settings. There is a profit share arrangement between the two organisations, and the funds raised will be declared by the Charity and be publicly available in their annual report.
For more on Design in Mental Health Network, please see www.dimhn.org.
If you are involved in the design, build, equipping, refurbishment, or management of facilities for mental health treatment, or are a clinician or academic in the field of mental health, Design in Mental Health is a place to be informed and inspired, share experience and best practice, discover new products and solutions, and to have meaningful conversations on the issues that matter."
https://www.designinmentalhealth.com/about/
And today and tomorrow, NWT (Newmark Security) subsidiary company Grosvenor Technology is exhibiting at this Design in Mental Health event:-
"Grosvenor Technology
3,305 followers
2w · Edited
Understanding the role of design in mental health settings is an important one for us at Grosvenor Technology. So we are pleased to be accompanying Third Millenium at the Design in Mental Health 2024 annual conference in Manchester on 4th - 5th June. Register for free here ..."
"Grosvenor Technology
3,305 followers
4h · Edited
We're all set up at the Design in Mental Health 2024 conference and exhibition - head to stand #112 to experience JanusC4, our #accesscontrol solution working in conjunction with Third Millenium's access control readers. ..."
https://uk.linkedin.com/company/grosvenor-technology
Started: Buffin, 22 Mar 2024 15:40
Last post: mighunter, 24 Apr 2024 14:06
I've been fortunate to pick up some good qualitative research from LSE posters previously from the likes of LinkedIn etc, so am just putting these bits here so others can take a view.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/epochtv/concerns-over-kooth-app-in-pennsylvania-schools-5635701?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=twitter&rs=SHRNCMMW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKk6PgkWuho
Whilst I hoped that some of the negativity might blow over, or be succinctly addressed by the company, it seems to be gathering in momentum and severity. A great amount of the negativity needs to be taken with a pinch of salt due to poor understanding from individual commentators but as I have no means of crosschecking some of the hints (AZ, loss of PA district numbers), I have decided to sit this one out for now. Hope that the company can address concerns.
Tuesday 26th March for Full year results and hopefully a positive update !
Yes , glad to see it emerge a little from the doldrums. Thought we were going to have to wait until full year results for it to spark into life.
Nice change in SP direction last 2/3 days. There was a sudden flurry of buys and then some late declared trades. Then I suspect watchers bought in thinking bottom had been reached.
Not sure if catalyst was seller being cleared or if tipped somewhere. Or is it too much to hope that word leaked about long awaited Penn contract being finalised.
Started: mighunter, 6 Feb 2024 09:57
Last post: Acuere, 13 Feb 2024 18:47
Really need to get this Penn contract done and dusted to try and generate some buying interest again.
It does seem remarkable that the SP is now back down to the level it was just before the California contract details were announced. At which time they were able to do a significantly oversubscribed placing at a premium of 300p. Makes you wander where all that demand has gone.
Ken Wotton of Gresham House comments on Kooth at 51:50 onwards
https://videos.voxmarkets.co.uk/video/7036/vox-markets-fund-manager-series-ken-wotton-managing-director-at-gresham-house/
Their website advises that trading update coming tomorrow , 22nd Jan.
Fingers crossed !
Last 3 years, Trading Update has come on the 19th, 20th and 22nd of January. I was expecting it yesterday or today. MMs happy to take SP down on low volume until we hear any definite news. Hoping that they’ve held TU back as they want to accompany it with some pending contract news.
A somewhat tepid response to today's announcement. Clearly the rush of money in the last couple of days was expecting more news other than California. Nevertheless , while nothing new it is still a big positive given they have confirmed that they have delivered everything they said they would and on time.
Lets hope that this is simply the start of further announcements.
Started: ShearClass, 15 Dec 2023 09:50
Last post: Acuere, 8 Jan 2024 20:59
Would expect to see one more Holding notices after all that.
Canaccord last notice had them down to 8.96% or 3.26m shares. Although one site shows them below 8%. BGF have been adding and were up to 6.15% in November.
Interesting though to read this comment from Amati about Kooth in November.
“So a well established business, respected amongst practitioners, but really expanding from the UK into the US is what’s going to make it for us quite an exciting investment. Important to note that it’s a more risky position than many of the holdings in the fund. Therefore, it’s quite a modest starting position, but nevertheless, one that is very exciting.”
With the company now less risky, I wonder if might they be increasing that “modest starting position”?
Crikey, just look at the delayed prints from Friday - nearly 800k shares changed hands around the £3 mark. Todays move tells us that either the buyer wanted more or the seller ran out of stock at that level, positive whichever way you look at it :)
Excellent stuff as ever.
These sentences whet the appetite.
“widespread adoption in the American market."
“Collaborate with the European CTO to develop and implement a robust technical strategy”
Yep, the drag from fund redemptions should certainly ease this year & allow the cream to rise to the top. £4-4.50 should just be the starting point for a re-rate in my view, considering shares spent nearly all 2021 trading at £3.50-4... The strategic progress made in the US since has been stunning & unparalleled in the AIM small cap space.
Over the weekend the Kooth CTO shared an interesting role that they are recruiting for;
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/3798347166/?refId=1U2ci3B7Rm63ADBikIvmXw%3D%3D&trackingId=1U2ci3B7Rm63ADBikIvmXw%3D%3D
"VP of Engineering - Consumer Marketplace - Scale-Up - Remote/East Coast
This pioneering marketplace product is immediately hiring a VP of Engineering to lead its technology division in the U.S., offering a pivotal role in shaping and evolving the innovation of a new platform for widespread adoption in the American market."
"Key Responsibilities:
Closely collaborate with the CTO and CPO to shape the platform's vision and its in-house migration.
Assemble and nurture a team of exceptional, remote, US-based engineers, ensuring the app's delivery and success.
Assume full responsibility for the new and parts of the existing app, previously developed by a third party, and make critical technology decisions.
Embed security, accessibility, and best development practices into their processes.
Build and manage a high-performing, delivery-focused US team within the established European HealthTech brand.
Strengthen ties with the global team, promoting a robust remote-working culture.
Collaborate with the European CTO to develop and implement a robust technical strategy.
Oversee the successful delivery and operations of the application, ensuring compliance and data security."
Appears to be a clear sign that things are full steam ahead...
Yes hopefully with interest rates set to fall and UK equities looking cheap hopefully this selling to meet redemption requests will dry up.
It’s worth remembering last years SP movements.
In March Kooth had to announce early that they had won California contract and details would follow. A month later SP was about 292p. Despite this knowledge by late June, SP was below 240p and barely moved even when Kooth informed market that contract would be signed shortly.
Contract was RNSd 4th July. Two weeks later, with placing done, SP was above 370p.
And yet despite evidence that Pennsylvania pilot has been successful and I’d say 99% certain to be extended. And despite evidence that California has been launched on time and app is now available in 13 languages, the SP had fallen back below premium placing price.
With either Penn RNS or Trading Update due in next 3 weeks, I can easily see this trading in 400-450p range quite soon.
Started: ShearClass, 14 Dec 2023 09:19
Last post: ShearClass, 14 Dec 2023 17:46
Yep, it looked unlikely this time yesterday but all of the previous delaying tactics were abandoned and they got everything approved & signed. Given the timing of the Lane Johnson LinkedIn post I suspect Kooth were aware of the likely outcome & are ready to roll.
That’s good news. If they hadn’t passed the budget this week there was talk they might not meet for another 3 months as a leaky roof needed fixing. Hopefully we’ll get a good RNS before year ends now.
Thanks for the update. Thats Pennsylvania sorted so hopefully we will get more info on future opportunities.
The linkedin post was very interesting and does highlight the good position the Co is in given the requirement for such services which will only grow.
As you say , the future looks very interesting for this company.
Thank you again, ShearClass. Your awareness of things State side is quite extraordinary and so helpful. I imagine that news re Pennsylvania will be forthcoming very soon now.
This Linkedin post a couple of days ago is also worth reading; https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/congratulations-kooth-ambassador-lane-johnson-his-nomination-5gqqc/
"Over the coming weeks, I’ll be sharing more about the work Kooth is doing in Pennsylvania and beyond. The response to Kooth’s services has been incredible - from parents, teens, educators, and government representatives. But, for now, I’ll say this: Lane Johnson’s influence is just beginning. "
Combine that with a 1 in 10 usage rate reported in the half year results and things look very bright indeed here
Watch from 5hr 27 mins onwards of this Kansas legislative research department meeting on 6th October;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP5hZSgppCo
Verbal confirmation that Kooth have partnered with Aetna in Kansas and are working through app implementation for a state wide rollout...
Also, may have been a slip of the tongue but Erin Davis (Kooth VP Government Relations) refers to 'Kooth Therapeutics', which I've never heard mentioned before.
'Kooth is the gold standard model of care for personalised, proactive and accessible digital support'
@Nortel, agree on public bodies being frustrating, however once you are integrated the competitive moat is huge so it will be worth it!
Kansas appears to be the perfect setup; Kooth are working with a huge Medicaid company which will provider many advantages, one of the most important being credibility in front of government. The questions asked by legislature were very positive, there appears to be a genuine desire to find solutions.
As I posted a few days ago, Aetna are present in 17 US states so a rollout beyond Kansas would seem inevitable post a successful implementation (and may already be happening).
Thank you, ShearClass, for your customary well-informed and interesting comments in your last 2 messages. They are very helpful and reassuring. I am in for the long term (usually when I say that, it is case of a short term (problematic) holding becoming a long term holding, but not this time!) and I am so impressed with what this company is both aiming to do, to help those with mental health problems, as well as has achieved to date.
Hi ShearClass
Thanks for posting the links , very helpful.
The big frustration for the company will be the inevitable delays that occur when dealing with public bodies and funding. Nevertheless , patience will be rewarded here as i believe the risks associated with public funding being pulled or kicked into the long grass are less relevant here.
Hopefully the next couple of months will see significant updates on their progress.
Another bit of research that's worth mentioning is regarding Medicaid, as per this line of the placing proceeds RNS from July;
"piloting Kooth with Medicaid to support youth in low-income families;"
Linking back to this post from October; https://www.linkedin.com/posts/janesbrown_such-a-pleasure-to-offer-novel-digital-solutions-activity-7118186301169831936-IKVg?
Jane Brown works for Aetna Better Health, which is part of $100b market cap CVS Health, listed on NYSE
They work across 17 US states proving Medicaid services; https://www.aetnabetterhealth.com
Each health insurance plan provides access to certain services, which are listed here; https://www.aetnabetterhealth.com/illinois-medicaid/whats-covered.html
Piloting Kooth with Medicaid via what I believe is Aetna / CVS provides the first step towards potential integration of digital mental health support across some or all of those 17 states.
They already have offices in Chicago, Kansas & Pennsylvania, so it certainly looks like they are setting up for big things...
Hi Uh-oh, if you go onto investor meet company and listen / watch the last 2 presentations then you'll get a far better idea of where they sit. However, they confirmed in the October meeting that the California contract is self funding - they are receiving ~£12m up front this year to cover hiring, product R&D spend etc. Once the contract formally commences they'll almost certainly be paid in advance so cash should never be an issue.
FYI there was a CYBHI public webinar on Thursday evening which confirmed everything is on track, a recording is here; https://cybhi.chhs.ca.gov/event/public-webinar-december/
This is the portal at present; https://calhopeyouth.org/ , obviously we can't download the app as it's only available in those 2 counties pending full roll out in Jan. However, the fact it's been live since late August significantly de-risks things IMO. Kooth US headcount on Linkedin is now up to 114 from around 15 earlier this year, so hiring appears to be going very well indeed.
The £10m raised in July + the additional £6m they held prior is for supporting US growth ex. Cali & Penn. I.e. Medicaid system work, new research studies, lobbying etc. Mid teen EBITDA margins (no debt) and FCF by the end of next year and a hint at dividends beyond that (not sure that's necessary at this stage), tell you where this could head should things go as hoped.
Started: Acuere, 21 Nov 2023 15:27
Last post: ShearClass, 9 Dec 2023 23:02
Hi Nortel,
Glad to see some activity on here & others on the same page re. valuation / drift. On Pennsylvania, it's all waiting on the school codes budget being signed off, the schools mental health budget is all tied up in a larger bill which came oh so close to being signed off 3 weeks ago but was amended at the last minute by Democrats. This is the bill in question;
https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/billinfo/bill_history.cfm?syear=2023&sind=0&body=H&type=B&bn=301
Media coverage; https://www.penncapital-star.com/education/fight-over-tax-money-for-private-school-tuition-snags-education-funding-bill-again/
The funding confirmation is on page 73 of the bill itself and confirms that each Penn school district can apply to receive $100k funding support (there are 500 states, so $50m total, unknown what the Kooth expansion will cover, pilot was 30 states @$100k / $3m total);
https://www.legis.state.pa.us/cfdocs/legis/PN/Public/btCheck.cfm?txtType=HTM&sessYr=2023&sessInd=0&billBody=H&billTyp=B&billNbr=0301&pn=2326
Senate is back in session this week so fingers crossed they can get it done this time...
I too think a NASDAQ or NYSE listing will follow at some stage, primarily because they'll need to reward their US employees with stock options in USD. If they can nail Cali, Penn + a couple of additional states & get on board with Medicaid policies then I think they'll be ready to push the button.
Am with you on this one. The scourge of AIM when there is no newsflow and stocks drift without any thought to what their position is. Certainly an opportunity for people to get in at the previous (premium) placing price.
Pennsylvania seems to be taking a little longer but there has been nothing to suggest any issue here. California kicks in from Jan 1 which is a material gamechanger. 6 months ago the Co talked about consolidating current position and not being distracted by New York or North Carolina. I don't believe for a moment that is the case now given California is up to speed and good to go live as expected.
For me this stock is simply the wrong price which will become evident in 2024.
While i never subscribe to noise around where Co's should be listed etc , i can't help but wonder with the large and growing US exposure , what this would look like if listed on Nasdaq.
Oh so quiet here as there has been a gap between RNS'd news which inevitably causes a few under researched PI's to sell &hardly anyone seems to be in the habit of doing detailed research...
There should be a very positive 12 months ahead here, note that the next 3 sets of financial statements are set to show significant growth;
Full Year 2023 revenues of at least £34m vs £20m in FY22, giving growth of ~70%
H124 is when California kicks in, full year forecasts are for £67m, so if this is equally weighted then H1 will show YoY growth of ~180%.
Full year 2024 will then show a further 100% growth on FY23
Add Pennsylvania into the mix + at least 1 additional state + a potentially significant uplift in the UK with a labour government & £100m revenue could happen fairly quickly.
To be trading at just 1.5x FY24 revenue seems crazy, a re-rate to just 3x would see shares double in value and still be cheaper than most AIM listed SaaS companies, nevermind those listed in the USA.
Strong buy IMO and look forward to the next news that lands.
Whilst we continue to await Penn finalising their budget (the $100m Mental health budget has been agreed), here Scott McKenzie, manager on the [WS] Amati UK Listed Smaller Companies fund discusses his investment in Kooth
https://www.fundcalibre.com/the-bright-side-of-bleak-opportunities-in-uk-smaller-companies
Started: ShearClass, 13 Oct 2023 10:08
Last post: ShearClass, 16 Oct 2023 21:42
Cheers Acuere, yes California is key right now. Once that is up and running they can focus on the opportunities elsewhere.
Great to see that BGF are aggressively buying up shares & have near doubled the £3m they took in the July placing. Cannacord have been indiscriminately selling down holdings across LSE shares, presumably due to fund outflows. That overhang is likely to be what caused the pull back from the £3.80 highs - fingers crossed we can exceed those levels before year end & smash them out of the park in 2024.
Great stuff as usual Shearclass.
Hopefully Penn will finally sign off on their budget soon and then Kooth contract can be confirmed.
In last Investor Meet, they were very keen to say focus is all on successful delivery of California ahead of 1st January launch. However they have mentioned NY and N.Carolina in the past as targets. And from that Brain conference it’s obvious that they have support in Kansas and Illinois, where they already have offices. They also mentioned that 30 states looking at mental health investment.
Add in the potential to licence out the 18 non-English language versions. Future looks very bright if California is a success and they sound genuinely confident now that it will be.
Further good news from Penn a couple of days ago. Interestingly, it's directly in line with the thoughts of the Brain Capital panel video which I shared earlier re. aligning all stakeholders behind a single unified vision;
https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-signs-executive-order-streamlining-mental-health-substance-use-disorder-efforts-to-improve-accessibility-across-the-commonwealth/#:~:text=The%20Executive%20Order%20creates%20a,health%20and%20addiction%20care%20services
“Across Pennsylvania, I’ve heard from students, parents, providers, and so many others who have told me about the growing challenges of dealing with mental health challenges and substance use disorder, which are so often intertwined,” said Governor Josh Shapiro. “It’s time we deliver the help so many Pennsylvanians are asking for. This Behavioral Health Council will be led by a seasoned expert, Dr. Christina Finello, who will spearhead the development of an action plan that will transform the health care delivery system to meet the real needs of Pennsylvanians. For the first time, our Commonwealth will have a senior leader in the Governor’s Office whose full-time job is to focus on this specific work and reach across all levels of government to improve our mental health and recovery services.”
"The Council builds on the Governor’s commitment to improving mental health services following major wins in the 2023-2024 budget that increased investments to restore full funding to county mental health programs and created a line item to invest $100 million to fund mental health resources in our schools."
The $100m line item is almost certainly where Kooth's contract will come from, however there is no telling exactly when it will arrive. Sometime in Q4 though, as per the 2nd October investor meet company...
This is a must watch for anyone interested in Kooth - part of a series of videos uploaded from the 19th September UN Brain Capital conference in New York;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68jODbvL878
The whole video is worth watching, but particular call outs are;
At 25 mins it's disclosed that there is a desire to launch Kooth as a state wide service in Kansas & Illinois. Excellent discussion on the current situation & a clear passion to integrate digital services ASAP.
The speaker posted further on this yesterday on Linkedin; https://www.linkedin.com/posts/janesbrown_such-a-pleasure-to-offer-novel-digital-solutions-activity-7118186301169831936-IKVg?
"Such a pleasure to offer novel digital solutions that have the potential to impact so many Kansan kiddos suffering mental health crisis as early as possible. Great partnership from Erin Davis and the entire Kooth Digital Health (North America) team to develop a state wide vision for early mental health needs identification."
Also from 9 mins Aaron Kaufer, Pennsylvania state rep, talks about how it took years to get to the point of signing the Kooth pilot last October & rather than wait to sort out medicare & insurance, they took money from the state general fund to fast track availability so it could be accessed immediately. I can't imagine there will be long to wait for an expanded Penn contract, particularly given that the pilot usage levels were significantly above expectations at 1 in 10 of the available population.
Underpinning a lot of the panel discussion is the California scheme & how it's a shining example of what needs to happen elsewhere. Kooth really do appear to be a cornerstone of mental health revolution which has bipartisan support.
If we weren't in the midst of a raging bear market on AIM then I reckon shares would be trading at >£5, the progress they have made since the 2020 IPO @£2 is huge.
Last post: ShearClass, 11 Oct 2023 12:19
Also great to see BGF up the stake that they took in the July funding round;
https://www.bgf.co.uk/bgf-backs-kooth-to-support-us-expansion/
They took £3m @ £3 each, so have added a further 175k shares since.
Simon Blackaby, investor at BGF, commented: “Kooth is a great example of a high-quality business with a proven business model, a significant recurring revenue stream, and now, international growth potential. We have a strong conviction in the management team’s ability to execute the step-change in the scale of the business, following the recent US contract win, which is a clear demonstration of Kooth’s credibility and expertise in its field. This is an exceptional achievement for a UK-based business which has purpose at its core, and we’re delighted to be playing a part in its continued expansion.”
Paul Stevens, head of quoted investments at BGF, said: “Kooth is a great example of the type of publicly-listed SME that we are keen to support—one that has delivered strong progress over recent years and is now looking to deliver significant scale, both in the UK and internationally.”
Just under the £3 placing price looks like a very nice place to add, especially in light of the CEO buying £20k worth of shares at £2.96 last Thursday. I'd suggest this means the Beta test which launched on 31st August in 2 Cali counties has got off to a positive start...
The most recent CYBHI quarterly update from 14th September contained quite a bit of detail from Rachel Mackie on the app & rollout from 39 mins on; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0Bydlc3FpQ
I also note that LinkedIn headcount for Kooth North America has exploded from ~15 in mid July up to 58 as of today, with dozens of posts from new joiners expressing their huge excitement at joining the journey. All very positive.
Many more roles are still being recruited for; https://www.paycomonline.net/v4/ats/web.php/jobs?clientkey=CA518AACD06747D958404929D26FA686#
Overall, it appears execution risk has decreased quite considerably since the contract award in July. The product appears to be 90% of the way there & the hiring process is going well.
If they can win another couple of states then I think its very feasible to see this becoming a mid cap (>£300m valuation) in the medium term.
Taken a small initial position this morning (1k) bang on the placing price.
Growth prospects look v good. US expansion. Lack of competitors. High margins. Operational leverage kicks in next year.
Started: Amica1, 5 Sep 2023 19:20
Last post: Amica1, 5 Sep 2023 19:20
JOHCM: Kooth en route to £100m annual recurring revenue
JOHCM’s Mark Costar tipped digital mental health and wellbeing company Kooth (KOO) to reach £100m annual recurring revenue and said its valuation is way off its potential.
Costar holds the Citywire Elite Company in his £227m JOHCM UK Growth fund and in a recent update noted Kooth’s ‘transformational contract win in California’ after it was awarded a £146m contract with the US state to provide digital mental health services to its six million 13-to-25-year olds.
‘As a reminder, this relative minnow on the UK stock market was selected in a competitive process involving 450 potential providers,’ Costar said.
‘In our opinion, the business is on a pathway to £100m annual recurring revenue in the long-run and a market valuation that still pales compared to its potential.’
Costar also noted that the company ‘raised growth funds at a premium to the prevailing market price’.
The shares retreated 2.6%, or 8.7p, to 320p on Monday.
Started: Acuere, 23 Aug 2023 13:20
Last post: Acuere, 23 Aug 2023 13:20
Whilst we await news from Penn, there is a study out today which shows the rapidly growing number of young people claiming disability benefits due to mental health issues.
It’s the sort of thing that should encourage government to invest greater resources to deal with the increasing costs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66592814
Started: Acuere, 10 Jul 2023 10:43
Last post: ShearClass, 7 Aug 2023 10:45
Great news out of Penn last Thursday evening;
https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-signs-into-law-commonsense-budget-that-makes-historic-investments-to-create-a-stronger-economy-safer-and-healthier-communities-and-better-schools/
Prior to the sudden change in urgency the budget wasn’t going to be signed off until late September, now it’s done bar a handful of items. Happily the part relevant to Kooth has been approved;
“$100 million for school-based mental health counselors and resources for students.”
TBC how much of that goes towards any full statewide rollout of the Kooth service, however you’d have to think it would be 10-25% based on the pilot. I suspect a formal announcement on a long term contract could be imminent…
I think this has to be the most bullish IC article I’ve ever read on a small cap;
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2023/07/13/a-small-cap-with-a-game-changing-us-contract/
I’ll post most later on but have to agree on the current valuation of 2x FY24 sales looking very cheap vs other listed AIM companies, never mind US comps…
A Midas Tip Update was the catalyst for todays flurry of buys.
hTTps://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-12277811/MIDAS-SHARE-TIPS-UPDATE-Boost-mental-health-firm-Kooth.htm
Started: ria20, 4 Jul 2023 08:20
Last post: crawshaw, 5 Jul 2023 09:04
Additionally, I didn't call anyone a name?
But you just did..
Dom-Bella, presume you mean goad, unless you believe I'm God?
If calling our cross-rampers is goading, then so be it.
Crawshaw name calling and no1 Goder
A not so subtle cross-ramp Ria. Stick to TRAC.
Great RNS today on here and great news for TRAC worth buying as well.....massive contracts/ orders in today.....for both companies
Started: Acuere, 4 Jul 2023 19:12
Last post: Acuere, 4 Jul 2023 19:12
Bit of feedback from the Pennsylvania pilot study. The fact that 65% of the students used the service is a strong justification for its need.
https://www.the74million.org/article/report-thousands-of-pa-students-asked-for-mental-health-help-last-year/
Started: ShearClass, 12 Jun 2023 08:22
Last post: Mozax, 4 Jul 2023 11:53
Hi Shearclass, yes, thank you for your response, I appreciate your input.
I’ll be interested to see how Kooth behaves over the next few months even assuming no further US contract announcements.
Stock is under pressure here with the ‘ highly oversubscribed placing’ so perhaps momentum will continue strongly.
I’ve kept a good core holding here in the ISA for the journey.
Hi Mozax, definitely a good call to take some profits - it's AIM after all. Not keen on Made Tech as an investment as gross margins are poor and public sector budgets are under pressure. Could be a good trade though based on historic movements - not one for me though. Good luck and obviously not investment advice..
Indeed, we’ll put.
I’ve taken some profits here as I bought a fair chunk sub 180p.
On a different note, Shearclass, I’d be interested in your take of Made Tech (MTec). It’s been on my radar for a while and I’ve plopped a fair whack in recently.
I’ve done a fair bit of research.
Hopefully they did - it was a long wait from the initial announcement so the lack of interest does make sense!
Here's a budget breakdown of the original $4.4b CYBHI masterplan, as you can see $561m was originally flagged for the 'Behavioral Health Services and Supports Platform'.
https://sbud.senate.ca.gov/sites/sbud.senate.ca.gov/files/Sub_3_Attachment_Children_and_Youth_Behavioral_Health_Initiative_Handout.pdf
We now know that Kooth has been allocated around 33% of this budget, with a similar amount likely going to Brightline who will be looking after the 0-12 age group. I presume that the remaining 33% of the original budget has been held is reserve to support additional platform growth in the future, or reallocated elsewhere given Cali's budget problems...
Note that Kooth announced today that they will explore opportunities to support the 0-12 age group moving forwards, this is notable because they would have very likely won the whole contract if they had been able to support this age group as the initial plan was for a single vendor solution, rather than the two vendor solution they ended up with.
Share price wise it's very difficult to call where this goes from here in the short term. It's arguably on the worst possible market for a growth stock, as liquidity is awful & many international investors simply aren't able to buy SETSqx (market maker driven) stocks. My suspicion is we'll see some drift due to an II or two taking profit & then the real rise will happen as new state wins are announced & particularly when revenues (and profit) starts rolling in.
Great to see a listed UK based small cap making global moves, it's very unusual in today's world!
Some excellent posts from you Shearclass.
You may be surprised how many people have observed your excellent research.
Started: scoredagainsteps, 4 Jul 2023 07:52
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 4 Jul 2023 07:52
Great info thanks
Started: ShearClass, 9 May 2023 14:32
Last post: ShearClass, 9 May 2023 14:32
Very positive news out of NY yesterday / overnight which likely explains some of the buying today;
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-highlights-1-billion-plan-overhaul-new-york-states-continuum-mental-health
https://www.wkbw.com/news/local-news/governor-hochul-address-mental-health-concerns-and-allotting-50-million-to-be-spent-on-resources-in-schools
"BUFFALO N.Y. (WKBW) — Governor Kathy Hochul in the Queen City on Monday commits to address mental health concerns in the Western New York community. In her most recent budget, more than $30 million dollars is being spent on service expansions for school-aged kids mental health.
"We need to just embed this into our education system," Hochul said. "Something bad happening at home they have someone to talk to something bad happening at home there's someone to talk to. We catch them before they fall too hard because if they fall too hard we'll be spending a lifetime getting them back up."
FWIW I still think there is a very good chance that the solution which Kooth are going to roll out in Cali from Jan 24 (that currently has 70-75% of the required functionality) , ends up being adopted by NY too.
Ps. On the jobs in Kansas, that's where their current US head office is based, so a simple explanation there :)
I was looking at the jobs available in the US. I was expecting to see vacancies relating to California and Penn but was surprised to see remote recruitment jobs available in the Missouri/ Kansas area.
Anyone looked at this before? Any thoughts on this?
https://www.paycomonline.net/v4/ats/web.php/jobs?clientkey=CA518AACD06747D958404929D26FA686#
Started: ShearClass, 6 Apr 2023 21:48
Last post: ShearClass, 27 Apr 2023 13:21
Yes I think the Penn state contract would have the potential to more than double revenues in its own right.
It’s worth emphasising the fact that per Kooths research each $1 spent on their services in the US saves ~$12, whereas in the UK it’s around £1 spent saves £3.14…
Consequently a $20m per annum investment in Penn would result in theoretical savings of around $240m whilst a £20m investment in the UK would result in theoretical savings of £62.8m.
So there is clear logic to back up higher contract values in the US (plus the fact that councillor salaries are around 2.5x those in the UK). Overall they should also be able to command higher gross margins (as they alluded to in the results release).
On Cali it’s 1 of 15 workstreams, not providers. Kooth are primary vendor so aren’t handling under 12’s, however the 13-25 bracket is surely the largest segment as parental permission is required for younger ages.
Some sleuthing on Google is worthwhile however I’ve resisted the temptation to post anything on here until the contract is finalised ;)
Kooths California contract covers the 13-25 age range.
By my estimate there are 6.5m people within that age range in California. Obviously as we are 1 of 15 providers we don’t know how many of them we will be serving yet.
The $3m pilot project for 150,000 pupils worked out at $20 per head.
The 500 school districts have 1,566,855 pupils.
Just saying.
I’d speculate that the signing up of the NFL player as an ambassador suggests this is an expansion. We already know the pilot was very well received and kicking off a new campaign in May also points to this initiative being related to the 23/24 academic year given schools typically break up in late May / early June.
All very positive & as you point out the clues were most certainly there in the final results commentary.
“ Starting next month, the campaign will go live to hundreds of thousands of youth across Pennsylvania, letting them know that Kooth is there for them when it matters”
That’s another very interesting find. I’m not sure what to make of it though. Hundreds of thousands?
So far the market has only been told that Kooth is available to 150,000 youths in Pennsylvania.
So is that an overexcited marketing guy posting figures without much care for accuracy or has he let slip something not due to be announced until next month?
Remembering that this is what was said in results this month
“ Continuing to deliver on Pennsylvania pilot with a view to renewing and expanding our activities”
The clues are all there for what looks like could be coming.
Started: Mozax, 16 Apr 2023 09:07
Last post: ShearClass, 17 Apr 2023 12:54
Great presentation. Their ambition is to be 'the world leader' in youth mental health and the California contract will be transformational & material to the business once finalised. I think this is going to be one of the most exciting growth stories AIM has seen for a long time - this is a company that has a huge total addressable market & is actually winning significant state wide contracts which will enable them to invest heavily in the platform & at the same time grow their competitive advantage. This virtuous cycle that promises to be hugely rewarding for shareholders both financially & from a social impact point of view.
When you consider that fellow AIM constituent Big Technologies has a market cap of £736m (14x ARR, 30x PE) for "the leading, integrated technology platform for the remote monitoring of individuals" you can see how highly investors value 'best in class' technologies, if they have a positive social impact then it's even better. From my point of view it feels like the sky is the limit for Kooth, if they develop into the global leader in supporting youth mental health then shares could 10x from current levels and still be cheap...
Tomorrow, 17th April at 11.00.
Naturally we won’t find out anything that hasn’t already been RNS’d but I’ll be looking forward to getting further info on current & potential activities.
I’m sure management will be very upbeat.
Started: Mozax, 16 Mar 2023 08:45
Last post: Mozax, 9 Apr 2023 08:54
Well done Uh-oh, tucking these away in the Sipp is a shrewd move I suspect.
I have 6000 in my ISA and 3000 in my t/a but I intend to Bed & ISA these on Tuesday now we are in the new tax year.
Whilst I occasionally trade within my ISA I generally tuck the ‘don’t touch’ stocks away in here, lessons learnt over the years that certain stocks are best left well alone, with surprisingly pleasing results.
I’m of the mind that Kooth could be one of those stocks that grows very nicely indeed.
Yes the current facts here are very solid indeed, but the Cali contract has the potential to re-rate this to another level, we just need to get confirmation of the key details. Intriguing that they have just scheduled an investor meet company presentation for the 17th April, it could just be to present the annual results, however they didn't do that last year & they had an introductory presentation in mid January...
Thank you again, ShearClass. Your comments, allied to this potential transformative Californian contract for Kooth, remind me of that quote of John Maynard Keynes "When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, Sir?". Mind you, he also said "In the long run, we are all dead"!
As someone who had to take early retirement, partly owing to severe mental health difficulties, yesterday I decided to take the plunge, tucking away 8,000 in my SIPP at 233.8p. Whether the investment works or not, at least I am supporting a good cause.
Oh and for reference, my valuation comps for KOO are Eagle Eye & Microlise, who are fellow AIM listed SAAS companies who are forecast to report around £3-5m in PBT in 2023. Both are valued in the £160-180m range, vs £77m for KOO. So plenty of upside there if top line ARR rockets & bottom line profitability kicks into gear.
Hi Uh-oh, glad the comments have been of use.
First up, they are actually profitable on an operating cash flow level and balance sheet cash was higher at 31/12/22 than 2 years earlier, so forever loss making isn't true here. They are more or less scaling at breakeven, which is exactly where the opportunity lies in my view.
Where does profit come from? It's all about scale + operating leverage.
UK gross margins have historically been 70%, if the size of the California contract is anywhere close to what I think it's going to be then the increase in gross profit will be highly significant and start to generate material profitability.
The majority of their costs are related to the practitioners who provide the service, beyond that they have to pay for the tech, product, customer success & management teams + other overheads, however not all of those costs scale in line with revenue growth. It's a capital light tech business with a human front line, which makes it highly scalable & typical of a SAAS company.
If the California contract adds £20m per annum to the top line & gross margins remain at 70% then overall gross profit nearly doubles to >£30m. IMO the rest of the business will need to add a few more hires, but nothing material - product, tech & US management teams may need a couple more heads, but overall I'd be surprised if they added more than £2m in other staff costs. Let's say they add a further £1m in none staff costs and you have a net addition to operating profit of £11m.
That would leave 2024 profit before tax at around £10m, PAT £7.5m & basic EPS at 22p. If the Californian contract is larger than £20m then the bottom line figure could theoretically expand further. It's part of a $4.7b scheme & they beat 450 companies to the contract so the potential is massive.
If the above comes off this won't be trading at £2.35 that's for sure... Obviously all in my opinion / no investment advice ;)
Started: Troajan, 1 Nov 2022 21:20
Last post: Troajan, 1 Nov 2022 21:20