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No sign of it at HL
It's always delayed.
Still waiting on Barclays for my dividend.
Has anyone received there Dividend payment yet?
The SP is more closely correlated to global GDP which remains relatively supportive
Does it not also inversely react to world wide interest rate changes?
For me, any delay or moth-balled projects could send product prices skywards, it has happened before, and the presentation clearly shows that KMR product sells into all markets.
The SP and product pricing will react to marketplace changes, stoppages, delays, breakdowns etc, very quickly and it has a history of overreacting.
Contango totally have to agree they are the facts presented by the company how I read it
Also the product price as been steady so far this year matching last year's average and with the extra shipping compared to last year first half I can see first half year profits coming at around 100 million we'll above analysis predictions and well above last year half year profits of 67 million
My personal view is that the next phase of capex is entirely different to the last. The company will mine it’s way to Nakataka and continue production.
In advance it will spend some capital to ensure quality production throughout. That is why the capex is spread across a number of years and will not reduce EBITDA or dividends to any great extent.
For me the focus has to be on the supply shortage and cost of capital to build a mine. Banks will simply not lend against new infrastructure at these pricing levels.
Therefore, the next trigger will come from delays in expected mines not getting financed or delayed until market conditions can justify the capital spend.
It would be a lot cheaper and easier for a major producer or customer to buy KMR with a strong cashflow than it would be to build a new mine.
When sector multiples are this low M&A tends to come to the for. There is no guarantee it will be KMR but I’m happy with 10% + dividends and the potential for a 3-5x capital return if KMR gets acquired.
You say Shame capex eats into cashflows for years Today 13:37
and Very big move coming here and cashflows intensive.
What are you trying to say it is not clear...........please explain.
No not yet, pretty chilled about the business and my holding. I feel the CMD presentation was really positive because it was grounded in real current detail and not promises of the future so I haven’t found time to update my model.
It is a possibility but for the first time it is happening now and the jam is not being promised next year. Supply will not come online at these pricing levels and with higher interest rates on dept I expect significant delays. KMR is well placed now….
Ken - I do not think the current sp is a factor in any potential takeover approach as the price to be paid is more based upon the underlying value of the acquisition to the purchaser and the value acceptable to the vendor. Normal sp valuation does not seem to apply to KMR and will not do so until the profit and dividend show an even more substantial uplift. Until that point, the share will languish at its grossly undervalued sp level.
For me the Capital Markets Day deck remains extremely positive. The company makes the move while continuing to produce product. There is no significant downtime.
Given the market dynamics I expect > $300m of EBITDA per annum, possibly after a pull back in pull-back in 2023.
The capex is spread out over a number of years and the company will be in a good position to pay significant dividends annually throughout the next 3 years.
I can see three positive things happening.
1. Institutional investor start to pour in. Pushing market cap higher and KMR back into compulsory purchase territory for index trackers.
2. c. 10% dividends and capital growth is a good place to be. If a supply shortfall appears revenue will increase significantly versus a relatively fixed cost base.
3. As obken points out the heavy lifting is largely done and a 3 year capex plan whilst continuing operations is a greatly reduced risk. This capex plan may have kept to M&A wolf from the door. I believe that this hurdle may now be lower and an approach is more likely, than it was before the CMD.
Let's see today how the market responds to the company's Capital Markets Day.
The PE ratio is below 2.5 and still the share price is falling. The lower the price goes, the more likely a takeover approach will be forthcoming in the near future. There is plenty of value in this company but whereas the directors of other companies often "window dress" results and press releases, the Kenmare BOD always places broken crockery in their window. They do it EVERY time. For example, when reporting FY2022 results was it really necessary to emphasize a lightning strike that occurred in 2023 on the third line of the release? In contrast, compare the recent press reporting of National Express's final results. First look up the profit (loss!) made and then see how it was presented to the media. Other directors understand that they have a role to play in share price determination (CEO of Amazon refers to it as the company's key output) whereas the Kenmare BOD only think about their own bonuses and free shares.
I have an email from kenmare this morning
I presume report is on kenmare resources website
I expect the recording and presentations will be shared on the website shortly after it completes.
This will be on 26th April, are there any expectations of how the information from this will be communicated to ourselves.
LSE dividend data is invariably out of date or simply inaccurate Ken. Check the KMR "at a glance" data on HL for latest / historic dividends, updated on a daily basis. Currently showing KMR dividend at 9.4%.
FY2022 dividend was US 54.31c per share, This equates to GBP 43.0p. At today's share price of 475p, this results in a dividend yield of 9.05%. This is a lot higher than the 6.305% being shown on the LSE website. In fact, Kenmare's dividend yield has been understated on the LSE site for more than 12 months. I have reported it several times but LSE's data provider refuses to correct their mistake. Or am I missing something?
What ho, Buck. I hope your memory serves you well. At today's price, the market cap is quoted at £450M. Your suggestion would require a three fold increase in sp. That will do nicely!
I have been invested for 7 years and am up c. 300% including dividends to date.
I’m still very positive the company. I should sell some but am buying more.
Absolutely no need to apologies. I thought it was a fair critic of my question which was deliberately asked to see if others Ahmad strong views. It’s all good for debate.
I’ve bought more, just feels like the company is strong and very well positioned.
Con - If you thought I was being critical, I apologise for that was not my intention. I was simply attempting to understand the logic. I was concerned that I had misunderstood. I fully understand the expression "low ball". As to your comment, it all depends on the view point you take. If I were a fund manager say for Prudential, then I would be looking at anything up to 50 years for the capital to come back. After all, at the Pru they receive new funds to invest on a daily basis. If, on the other hand, I were a "chancer" investing for short term profit, perhaps 10 minutes in KMR may be too long. I was trying to understand where you stood. For myself, I am a long term investor in KMR and being based in UK, have to absorb the withholding tax. I therefore value retained profits and net capital growth over a longer term far more highly than yearly dividends. I appreciate that this will not suit all investors. I think the right suitor will come along and perhaps quite soon now that the wrinkles have been resolved and positive cash balances start to appear.