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The share price seems to be falling a lot now. I must admit that I expected the sp to be below 350p by now, due to the market softening and decline in selling prices as well as the massive capex planned for 2024-2026. I would not be surprsied to see the sp fall closer to 300p before rebounding a bit for the year end results.
Kenmare never has a 100% positive update, or even 90% positive. My prediction of the share price retreating to 350p will likely happen more quickly than I originally anticipated. Most of the spare cash will be needed for the upcoming capex. How much is Kenmare paying for its borrowing? Surely it would be much more advantageous to shareholders to pay off debt rather than do a share buyback. It's always smoke and mirrors with Kenmare.
While it is possible to reclaim the tax, why does the Irish government have to take it in the first place? Why can't investors declare their location of residency and be exempt from the deduction? In the country where I am, I would have to visit multiple departments and make payments at each to get the required information. I don't have the time and energy for this, and it is not a clear process anyway, hence the Irish government has many thousands of pounds that should be mine. We pay taxes when we buy the shares, we pay tax to the Mozambique government on the profits, and then to the Irish government on the dividends. They all have their snouts in the trough when there is anything to take, but no compensation was given for the massive losses at the time of the restructuring. This is why it FEELS like theft.
I agree, 25% Irish witholding tax is too much and it is another reason for not holding Kenmare stock. I have paid many thousands to date. I do not live or work in Ireland or the EU and I looked into what would be needed to reclaim this money. The time, effort and cost would be quite ridiculous. If you're not in Ireland, the Irish government know this and should not tax the dividends. And what about the shares held in an ISA still not being exempt? As far as I am concerned it is theft.
Kenmare's share price would be falling anyway. This is the usual pattern. And the share price will likely be below 400p by the end of the summer, and below 350p by the end of 2023.
My Kenmare dividends were available two days ago at Hargreaves Lansdown, Halifax and Interactive Investor. Good luck.
Let's see today how the market responds to the company's Capital Markets Day.
The PE ratio is below 2.5 and still the share price is falling. The lower the price goes, the more likely a takeover approach will be forthcoming in the near future. There is plenty of value in this company but whereas the directors of other companies often "window dress" results and press releases, the Kenmare BOD always places broken crockery in their window. They do it EVERY time. For example, when reporting FY2022 results was it really necessary to emphasize a lightning strike that occurred in 2023 on the third line of the release? In contrast, compare the recent press reporting of National Express's final results. First look up the profit (loss!) made and then see how it was presented to the media. Other directors understand that they have a role to play in share price determination (CEO of Amazon refers to it as the company's key output) whereas the Kenmare BOD only think about their own bonuses and free shares.
FY2022 dividend was US 54.31c per share, This equates to GBP 43.0p. At today's share price of 475p, this results in a dividend yield of 9.05%. This is a lot higher than the 6.305% being shown on the LSE website. In fact, Kenmare's dividend yield has been understated on the LSE site for more than 12 months. I have reported it several times but LSE's data provider refuses to correct their mistake. Or am I missing something?
FY2022 dividend was US 54.31c per share, This equates to GBP 43.0p. At today's share price of 475p, this results in a dividend yield of 9.05%. This is a lot higher than the 6.305% being shown on the LSE website. In fact, Kenmare's dividend yield has been understated on the LSE site for more than 12 months. I have reported it several times but LSE's data provider refuses to correct their mistake. Or am I missing something?
Hannam found SGRF !
If Berenberg think that Kenmare is worth 820p, why don't they go and find a buyer at this price? Or even 720p !!!
As a long standing shareholder, I agree with Contango. Iluka's original offer that the BOD and M&G declared undervalued the company wss for $700m. Nearly ten years later, and the BOD have still not been able to get the market valuation higher than this. SGRF could make a very profitable exit at 650-700p. I think it would be win-win for both Iluka (or Rio), the shareholders and even MC (happy and profitable retirement). If MC had any decency, he would acknowledge the unacceptable share price at the AGM and state that any bid approach would have to be seriously considered. I hope that someone asks the question that could prompt this response. KMR effectively put up for sale is the only sure way for shareholders, including SGRF, to avoid being losers, e.g. when the mineral sands market eventually heads south.
For now, I am happy to stay invested because (1) 10% dividend yield, (2) the increasingly real prospect of takeover interest. Once a bidder emerges, expect the share price to increase by between 50% and 100%. It is now only a matter of time. The market clearly doesn't love this company, but it would be a good acquistion for Iluka, Rio or the like.
Currently trading for disaster on a P/E of 2.7, there must be some bigger players taking a look here. Other mineral sands operators have been taken out at P/E 7-8, and I'm sure most Kenmare shareholders would jump at a bid at P/E 5, which could be a win-win for the Kmr shareholders, the BOD and the likes of Iluka, Rio or the like. Kenmare would probably sit much better within a bigger group. The capex for the next three years is only about two thirds of this year's EBITDA in total, so not such a big deal. And the company now has net cash. Wonder how long it will be until we see some interest from one of the bigger players or even a Chinese company.
Just days after reducing the company's share price target, today Berenberg have increased it from 760p to 820p. Shame that no one listens to Berenberg, even when their analysis is correct. It would be interesting to hear what some other brokers think.
Blatant share price manipulation at the market opening this morning. Shorters obviously having some fun. Hope they get badly burnt in the coming days. As Contango said recently, there is no logical reason based on the company's fundamentals for anyone to be selling below 550p, and at a reasonable P/E ratio of 5 the share price would be considerably north of 800p.
https://www.kenmareresources.com/investors/reports-and-presentations Average sales price increase from $327/t to $463/t; EBITDA $298m; Net profiit $208m; Net cash $28m; Dividend up 66% to $0.543 per share. And still the company's P/E ratio is below 3, despite the stock yielding approximately 10%. Let's hope that the Investor's webinar tomorrow will bring some upward price momentum so that we can end the week above 500p.
In January 2023, Berenberg set a price target of 780p for the company. It will be interesting to see whether any brokers upgrade their price forecasts in the coming days after yesterday's bumper results.
Sagacityrules, you are right, the market valuation is crazy. The company is currently priced at a P/E of less than 3. Brokers have previously stated that the average P/E in the mineral sands sector is 6-7. Given that Kenmare is usually seen as slightly higher risk, a P/E of 5 would seem about right, which would equal 865p. Bearing in mind the company now has net cash and the ilmenite market is still very healthy, I think we could see a significant rerating in the coming days/weeks.