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True Nickname.
If hindsight was foresight, we do be all billionaires Rastuss.
NicName very sensible in what you’re saying and this is my position also, can’t over expose, but just watch that resident master of doom come back to tell you how to manage things. Anyone know of a good rat catcher...
It may be true and easy to say a switch would have shown more gain after the event. But earlier one may not have been able to predict exactly how that would play out. Equally people may have already had a position in Glencore / Anto and not wished to consolidate their eggs. It terms of opportunity cost they could have exited KAZ and stuck it in Bitcoin and done even better. With hindsight.
"I think it’s unfair, though, that inexperienced investors get sucked into companies like this by a universally bullish bulletin board."
Rastuss, of course there are a number of boards like that but this board is far from being one. No one is suggesting anyone else buy KAZ, only that the bidco proposals don't reflect fair value for existing holders at this time. So far, that's been proven a correct view by recent events. It's hardly a big risk holding on to see how this plays out.
In the meantime there is simply no need for anyone to consider the offer (unless one holds a trifling amount of shares) as, for anyone wishing to exit, it is possible to sell in the market at a premium to the offer presently tabled.
To suggest people are being "sucked in" in this case is really not fair and I think such comment should be withdrawn.
But they don't own 50.1%.
HL indeed have sent out the terms of the offer.... I again will not sign it.
Kaz is and has been unpredictable in many ways, for instance when the results come out which have been over recent years brilliant the price drops. Often when copper is down Kaz go up! Etc.
I do think it is well run just by reading the results shows so they have delivered.
This bid and the purchase of the new mine have put uncertainty out there, however I do not think this is as yet a done deal, I believe there is major opposition to it, I could be wrong however imv I think given the Cu outlook for this year Nova will struggle getting the 75%.
I also agree that it is important that people can express their views bull or bear as it makes us all think and re evaluate any thoughts we may or may not have.
My view is that Cu is looking strong and will test new highs after this correction which if the big shareholder believe as some have stated then surely this deal will fail.
ATB
Bottled
I’m sure there’s an agenda somewhere, you’re very persistent and good knowledge, like the piped piper leading us all from this no hope company into the arms of anto. Kaz is a great company and I’m not selling for less than £15. Now please what is your agenda?
My sentiments exactly Shaktar!!! I have many thousands of shares in Kaz and this expert with his brilliant knowledge is scaring the crap out of me....beat in mind it’s a defining and very dramatic period for Kaz...Ratbag...very puzzling
I meant it would make your views more interesting (that's not the right word as any views are interesting, perhaps more pertinent, of more weight) if you were indeed a former employee, as I suspect. That's what I meant. Your interest in this company is puzzling and can only be explained by a personal experience of the company or its principal directors or shareholders. That would certainly make your views more pertinent as you'd have some "inside" knowledge of the workings in the company or the character of its decision makers.
Being too negative (just as being too positive) is not a problem if that view is supported by facts, analysis or stated assumptions. It becomes a problem when such view is driven by a personal agenda. Overly negative or overly positive opinions based on somebody's personal agenda obscure the true picture and mislead the readers on this board, most of whom are here because they are invested.
It's alright, Qwerty, he (or she) has a right to express his views. I suspect he is a former disgruntled employee, as he does seem to know quite a lot about the company and its shareholders, as otherwise, as you say, why keep on following and commenting on this board but never investing. In fact, that would make his views worth hearing... How did Mr. Kim or whoever wrong him - that I'd be interested to know
Getting really fed with your posts Ratbag, wish you’d go and take your doom and gloom elsewhere, been a long time investor here and very happy with Kaz, Why are you so insistent on people selling here and moving in to anto? Why are you spending so much time on this thread?
Thanks Rastuss, I live in Kazakhstan. You are welcome to come visit )
Who needs a 4c dividend anyway! I'd rather they keep it so share price goes up further. I'm in this for price appreciation, long term, not dividend. It's a growth company, as was reminded by Baimskaya purchase to those who thought otherwise. By my estimates, if copper price averages $3.75/lb in 2021 (and it is currently at $4.3!), KAZ will make $3bn of revenues and $1.9bn of Ebitda. Net debt would drop to $2bn. At just 5.5x EV/Ebitda this should get the share price to £13, which would still be only 0.8x P/NAV on my numbers. I'd probably start reducing my holding once we hit £12-13, but I wouldn't fully exit until it hits £15. No advice intended. DYOR
Bakered, as I said before, I am keeping my shares and remain of the view that the bid will fail. And I am not alone, and if you look at recent announcements, RWC, who have been vocal about how low and unacceptable this bid is, have actually increased their holding over the last month (including today). So did Vanguard, who only had just over 1% a few monhts ago and now increased their holding to 2%. Samson Rock keeps buying, too, increasing their holding to 1.67% over just a few months. If you want to be invested in copper buy find Anto too expensive at these prices, KAZ is your best bet, as the downside is protected by the bid, as I said in my earlier posts.
Shakhtar Love your posts, a real inspiration and comfort for existing shareholders, Thank you mate, And don’t let the buggers grind you down.
What happened to being bought out? Sorry I'm not up to date with recent events
What has happened? Last week the bid was going to fail and the sp would rise to £10-£12 now the bid will fail and we will all be screwed by Kim and co who I believe control 39% . Anyone optimistic?
Rastuss, you are back, all doom and gloom. Always good to have some pour cold water over my optimism for this share. I do disagree with you though. They can issue all sorts of negative forecasts, yes, but the facts will speak for themselves, just like yesterday's results. It is quite well known in the market that KAZ consistently understate its guidance and always have been. Did you not notice how they always manage to beat their guidance or at worst come near the top of the guided range? We all praise the management for "job well done", but this would be impossible to do so consistently if you were not understating guidance to begin with. On occasion they were even forced to increase the guidance part through the year. I am sure they would do 300kt this year, no doubt whatsoever, even from existing operations. And if you looked at the company's presentation yesterday and read more detailed description of the progress on Aktogay II, you would notice that all the main production units are complete now, just a few bits and bobs left to install. The concentrator has been electrified. It sounds like they will be starting dry commissioning any day now, probably March-April. I bet you they already started mining ore for Aktogay II, at least a few months ago. I will not at all be surprised if they commission Aktogay II by mid-year or end of summer at the latest. I'm willing to bet they will produce 5-10kt from Aktogay 2 this year, and that's not in their guidance. There is very little doubt in my mind that KAZ will produce less than 300kt of copper this year, and quite likely 310kt.
And you are wrong about selective mining, Rastuss. It is possible to do it, to some degree, but very difficult, particularly in the early years of the open pit, when grades are quite often higher due to supergene enrichment, which is evident at both Aktogay and Bozshakol. If you follow production announcements (and compare them with guidance) since operations began at the two mines, you will see a common theme, something along the lines of "production has been higher due to grades being higher than expected". Surely they knew the grades will be higher as they are obviously mining a supergene layer. We don't know how thick these zones are, but eventually they would move into lower grade main ore body, but it could be a few years before they can. These are huge open pits, they can't just strip one side to open up a lower grade layer. Plus these are massive disseminated sulphides, where grade is evenly distributed, so selective mining opportunities are rare. There are so many other reasons why they cannot or would not shoot themselves in the foot by doing something stupid like curtailing their production on purpose. The point it is, they can lie and cheat, but the facts will tell the truth.
But the large shareholders are certainly trying, Rastus. That helps doesn't it?
Yes thank you for clearing that up
Bakered, please read carefully. When I said 7-8x, I was referring to EV/Ebitda multiplier, not PE. In fact copper majors like Anto are trading at close to 9x EV/ebitda; even highly geared First Quantum is trading at 7x whilst KAZ is only at 5.8x. I prefer EV/ebitda over PE because the latter can vary significantly across peers and is more accounting-based (eg. GLEN reported a loss, so no PE). If we are talking PE, then I said 8.9x was very low, even compared to the fellow Kazakh copper minnow CAML which trades at 15x PE, not to mention the likes of ANTO (77x), FCX (93x), SCCO (38x), OZL (35x) or polish KGHM (44x) - you get my point...
Shaktar please clarify. PE 5.8 below peers at 7 to 8 then PE 8.9 still well below peers. Does not make sense. Also gradual decline in share price is a bit f a concern do you think?
I'm amazed how desperately they are trying to downplay these awesome results. The change in the tone of the report is so obvious. Gone is "lowers cost producer globally" replaced by very dry factual statement, completely disregarding that 64c/lb is THE lowest cost in the world, I'm sure of it. Note how they are trying to avoid uplifting words like "increased" or "beat" as much as possible - Mr. Southam choosing to say "saw the Group REPORT ebitda of $1.4bn". Come on, give yourself a praise like you did all those years, don't be shy!
And of course note how they decided not to pay the dividend - anything to try and push the price down. They didn't have to do it, the Nova's offer is post-dividend anyway (that is 780p less any dividend paid), so they could pay a dividend, nothing requires them not to - they chose to do it to create some negativity in their otherwise GREAT results with the sole purpose to try and push the price down. Despicable! The CEO and all the non-execs deserve to be fired! I know how I'll be voting at AGM
ok, that was operating profit of $1bn. net profit $639m, so PE 8.9x, still well below peers
The best surprise is the cash cost of production. At today's prices KAZ makes $8100 for each tonne of copper it produces. So this year they could be looking at $2.4bn EBITDA at today's price, and that's without Aktogay 2. That is huge!
EBITDA $1431m, Net Profits $1 billion!!!
Net debt down to $2.6bn against expectation of a rise to $3bn
Cash cost only 64c/lb - that's huge surprise, down from 77c/lb from previous year! Amazing!
So, KAZ is trading on PE of just 5.7 and trailing EV/EBITDA of just 5.8x (against copper peers trading at 7-8x!!!
CHEAP CHEAP CHEAP (IMHO)
Nova's takeover attempt is surely dead now!