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Yep 26/1 last year so expecting similar timings this year. Was hoping a few 2024 share tips would include JUST as it seems massively undervalued. If we repeat H1 performance operating profit will be c £350m and the company is valued at less than £900m. Surely a ridiculously low valuation.
I expect Just has sustained its sales volumes (in terms of individuals covered) in H2……annuity rates have been higher and although slightly off their highs still provide better customer value than for many years due to higher interest rates……those same interest rates will have reduced the annuity liabilities being taken on from DB schemes….but the added value to Just should be similar.
My hope is that we see mid 90s following the trading update.
Apollo said to value PIC around£5bn….HY capital/ownfunds…around £6bn
Similar to 170p for Just?
3 large US PE groups are said by the FT to be weighing bids for Pensions Insurance Company - which is already owned by PE/Sovereign Wealth Funds.
While it will be easier for an off market deal to be struck, it will provide a benchmark valuation…and the disappointed bidders (unless they go into a consotium) may take a look at Just….lets see what transpires….
Now 136 (was 125)……actually still only early 80s. So 70% upside per Barclays.
Maybe the analyst is named
Asif Pigscanfly
Just has a large share of the sub £100m market…..hopefully the consolidation idea for PPF is in the sub £10m market…..otherwise Just will be JustTakeaway.
You win dab808, I only have six of them.
It is like a list of the stocks in my portfolio. I only need Drax and I have a full set....
What next to buy I wonder :)
Very undervalued according to Share Magazine
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/three-quick-and-easy-ways-to-screen-the-market-for-value-stocks
And PHNX has an extra £500m burning a hole in its pocket….that alone could buy a good chunk of Just….with the rest in shares…..just saying.
Positive on Just, last TP was 115.
Says just moving to a point of excess capital with potential for positive dividend surprises.
The BOD should have some interesting options to consider
- invest in more new business
- take on more risk by reducing reinsurance
- pay higher dividends or dividend+buy back/debt reduction…...
Correction, the PRT sales were 16 deals value of $250m….obv a senior moment
The announced results include origination of $2bn of annuities in Q3 and £1.6bn of pension risk transfer business.
Clearly they have an appetite for the type of business Just writes and would be able to capture more of the value than Just can.
Maybe there is more to the rumour a week or so ago….some decent gains so far this week when other insurers have not really advanced.
CaneToad - I think the story is one of jam tomorrow.
There is certainly accumulated value in the policies already in force that will flow over the next 40 years…..but management is yet to realise it for shareholders.
As a monoline insurer it gets all the riskiness of a single product but has somehow managed to grow significantly without the share price rising.
It is not alone with competitors LGEN / AV / PHNX / MNG all flat / declining.
On the face of it, you can buy about 200p of value for 70p….not many markets allow that - especially one that promises 15% growth for the next decade as the DB schemes are transferred to private hands.
Why is this? Concern about financials generally, a past history of regulatory intervention and a balance sheet that has been weak but is improving steadily.
LTH dream of a take private deal….management say they have talks but presumably the price they wanted was unrealistic…..I for one would take 120p… in the absence of a deal the SP bumps along unloved…..maybe the market view will change, but then again negative macro events keep happening to threaten the financial system….
I've spent some time ploughing through the financials here and it seems very 'cheap' for such a company - but what is the attraction?
Management boast how well the company is doing, but unless you're an expert at IFRS accounting for insurance companies, it's impossible to untangle the story:
- The divi is unattractive
- The share price has done nothing but decline in a decade
- I can't find any broker research; ResearchTree has nothing at all
- It looks like a zombie/neglected company
On the other hand, if there is any truth to the recent outlook/performance spouted by management, it seems there is an opportunity here for the brave, if there's any virtue at all in the ultra-low p/e.
Petro
Note that although the value of bonds will undoubtedly be lower….these assets are held in a “matching portfolio” to back the annuity liabilities….the value of liabilities also falls because the future payments are discounted at a higher rate….the result is that the capital position does not change by as much as you might think.
The loss in value of the assets goes through the contract service margin (future profits) as do changes in the present value of future liabilities so there should not be huge headline IFRS losses.
The key is the capital position and cash released from operations….both have been improving in the last few years and the company looks to be on firmer foundations…..of course a market meltdown would be challenging to all financials.
Just Group is exposed to interest rates, as its investment portfolio contains a significant amount of fixed-income securities. If interest rates rise, the value of Just Group's investment portfolio could decline.
Another failed investor. The trade is there for everyone, and anyone, to see..
19-Oct-23 10:19:43 80.41 296,254 Buy* 79.20 79.40 238.22k O
£238k buy this morning!
Still waiting for 50p Ria?
Your warnings are indeed dire-ria20..
This is a dump and yes it is a dog
Fantastic analysis as always Ria
This isn't a pump and dump AIM share like all of your 'investments'
Stop embarrassing yourself.
Be warned no bid and this will crash and most will get burn't .....don't listen to the likes of cranshaw .....NEWBIES BEWARE DON'T GET CAUGHT HOLDING THE BABY!!
Selling outstripping buys now