Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Dorfan, the info re 50k PGM ozs is in the penultimate paragraph of the 4 June RNS. Inyoni was closed for an unknown period in June to integrate the new chrome ore processing facility to the PGM processing facility in the final commissioning stage.
A quick read on the Jubilee's website (under projects) would show that Jubilee currently has the capacity (and target) to process 2800 oz of PGM's at Windsor and 2 500 oz of PGM's at Inyoni (pre Inyoni II).
That is 5 300 oz per month x 12 = 63 600 oz per annum. The top end is thus 63 600 oz of PGM's, my personal belief is that it will definitely exceed 50 000 oz and given the demand, will lie somewhere between 55 000 - 60 000 mark for PGM's.
Copper and chrome are bound to astonish us. Hopefully so will the cash in the bank. 2022 will blow the roof off imo.
Soon all will be revealed .........
GLA - DYOR
LOL!!!!!!
Suddenly realised why no update from JLP…FANG are reporting in the States and they don’t want to outshine!
Homey please tell me where Leon said PGM production would be above 50000 ounces.
I again listened carefully to his interview of the 4th June and all I heard him say as regards PGM's, was that they very busy with construction of plants to increase PGM production.He also very upbeat about copper production so cannot believe there is any problem there either.I think the lack of news is making shareholders jittery,but there must be good reasons for the delay.It may be that he is busy with another deal.
Dorfan, I agree.
I am particularly looking forward to getting an update on the copper projects. With the increased cash flow from operations are we able to bring forward the timescales for Elephant 1 and 2? Leon had a glint in his eye when he talked about innovations in the copper processing!
Also progress on the Zinc circuit as well as how the enhancements at Inyoni feed through to earnings on the Chrome and PGM side.
Much to look forward to. I would also like to see an updated corporate presentation and brokers note to demonstrate how these enhancements will impact on ongoing earnings.
Didn't even mention Cyprus or Eastern Limb...
Northern
Billyboy The production I added increased the earnings by about 7p so I would still be higher then WH Ireland at 2.3p as opposed to their estimate of 1.9p. What I need to find out how production could be down when we had almost an extra 3.5 months production from Windsor 8. It would also mean we had no production from Inyoni 2 and we failed to increase production at Inyoni 1(which I think is highy unlikely) and also I believed that our JV with Northam only ended in June 2021.
BUT as I have said repeatedly the main increase in the production of all metals starts now so I am not that concerned.
The next six months will clearly show the potential of Jubilee'
Both Leon and Colin have clearly stated we have the ability to treat 300000 tonnes of chrome tailings as well as the ability to produce 25000 tons of copper,so that should with Cobalt and Chrome,but without new ventures the potential to take earnings per share to 5p
Lots to look forward to
Dorfan,
May I ask what PGM production figure you have used in your calculations, please?
If you re-run these calculations with production at say 50,000 oz, how does that change your figure?
BB2.
Homey Did he give any reason why it should be so low .I must admit I missed him saying that Pgm production is above 50000 ounces. I can only hope it is well above 500000 ounces or I agree my figures are too high
Dorfan
As for the PGM production, Leon recently said the PGM production estimate is above 50,000 oz for the year ending 30-Jun-2021. Based on that comment, I assume an amount above but close to 50,000. This implies that the half-year ending 30-Jun-2021 production estimate to be 23-24K oz which is less than the 28K oz produced in the half year ending 31-Dec-2020.
I will be happy if JLP beat the GBPX 1.9 EPS estimate but I wouldn't bet on it.
Well, looking ahead to the next 6 months, we know
a) the extra chrome and PGM capacity will apply to a full 6 month period
b) the copper production is being ramped up and will become much more significant
c) the Cyprus goat plans will be clearer with perhaps a start to construction
d) any Eastern limb developments with become clear
e) further future project plans announced?
Homey we will see .Yes my calculations included tax at 11% which was the % WH Ireland calculated in the first half year figures. South African corporate tax is 28% but I presumed Jubilee enjoyed certain allowances. According to WH Ireland's brokers note, taxes increased in the 2022 tax year and again in the 2023 tax year where tax is calculated at 21%.
What I think Ireland missed was the sharp increase in PGM and copper prices.
I concede that in my production calculations of PGM's increased in the second half of the year which is not the case that some believed. According to my calculations we had 6 months production in the second half year and only 2 and half months in the first half year from the newest Windsor plant. Also some think that our first Inyoni plant was impacted with the building of 2nd Inyoni plant but the 2nd plant was built in a different area so I am sure suffered no loss of production and there was actually increased production at Inyoni 1 with the increased treatment of chrome tailings.
I have also said that real growth of PGM's and Copper and Cobalt begins mainly in the 2022 tax year so I am not overly concerned with the the figures which most shareholders seem to be eagerly awaiting.
I am more concerned to prove WH Ireland went wrong somewhere. We have often seen shares falling for reasons of missing estimates so perhaps we could see the opposite if we beat estimates.
Perhaps WH Ireland have done shareholders a favour by estimating too low
I believe and hope so
Love to see a PE of 15, not convinced the market will give it unless the update is absolutely fantastic on future earnings!
Just saying, pe of 10 is too low for the growth rate in this share - lest say 15 and 45p.
AtB
NtD
Dorfan1
I think the WH Ireland figure of GBX 1.9 eps is a fair estimate. Have you considered the tax in your calculations?
So with PE of 10 about 30p ?
Dorfan01 you mention Tjate at the end which, apart from a short time when they received the Mining Licence, has never really had any perceived value on the share price because of the huge investment required to develop the mine and build a smelter. The innovative Kell Process (https://www.kellprocess.com/experience ) which is being incorporated into Sedibelo Platinum's new mine ( https://im-mining.com/2020/12/11/sedibelo-platinum-expand-ppm-operations-leverage-kell-technology/ ) may just change that.
Aucs My calculations are way higher than WH Ireland who calculated 1.9p.
I believe they will be closer to 3p.
I will be very disappointed if I am wrong but I am very sure WH Ireland have got it wrong
Dorfan01, the suspense is killing me!!!!! I am sure that because of your posting you must have done some calculations.... so, what is the number/s ???? :-)
Shareholders in Jubilee often mention a take over of the company but nobody seems to worked out what price is should be acceptable to the shareholders
Mammon's post on mineralogy in which he refers to the difficulty of processing common forms of copper also got me thinking.
As a CA I was often called on to value a business which I did by adding goodwill, which I had calculated ,to net assets.
Applying the same principles to Jubilee ,I discovered it was not an easy calculation BUT I believe to a thinking shareholder what is easy is to calculate the net worth per share is far higher than it's present price.
Take Copper for instance if Mammon is correct and Jubilee has the ability to process all copper(which I don't doubt they can do) there is an enormous goodwill to be added as I am sure there will be many other deals starting with Cypress were the tech can be applied. Jubilee's reported 300 Million tonnes of copper tailings is equivalent to 30 year copper mine without the costs of establishing a mine. What is that worth?
The same principle applies to the Chrome and PGM tailings in South Africa, We have large mines without the cost of establishing the mines.
Jubilee does have capital costs in erecting the processing plants but they are insignificant as compared to establishing an actual mine.
That the process can be repeated world wide is an enormous GOODWILL.
Then Jubilee has Tjate which in any takeover must have some value.
What it all amounts to price wise is the million dollar question but it is what makes Jubilee such a worth while investment