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have to agree with other posts on here.
quite honestly any opinion with no factual evidence is a waste of everyone's time. jbl was going to be a big pgm producer, then morphed into lead, zinc, copper and chrome. now we are essentially a massive chrome producer with some copper, cobalt and pgm's as a bi-product. we go in the direction of the deals lc makes. the company is growing, profitable and full of potential.
most, if not all, are disappointed with the sp and lack if news coming out. when it comes out, still some ***** and moan. grow up people, we are invested here to make money and hopefully assist others to make money too.
to use a quote the source of which i cannot confirm (credited to melanie mackie)
be an encourager, the world has enough critics already.
pretty good rns today imo. gla and dyor
Meeafe Ferrochrome released a trading update earlier today. Their earnings are expected to be higher despite lower production. The increased earnings according to the SENS is due to higher prices and currency fluctuations. The top end of their expected earnings is 75 cents per share. That is more than 50% of their current share price.
Interestingly to me is that their market cap is similar to that of JLP despite them paying an interim dividend of 20 cents. I expect the final dividend to be a similar amount. FTR I do own shares in Merafe.
The reason for this somewhat long winded post is to demonstrate that in my opinion the current share price of JLP takes almost all the negatives into account and none of the numerous possibilities which the current year will bring to JLP and it is still valued at a similar level to that of Merafe. Merafe together with Glencore have also just entered the PGM space, so they clearly see an upside to the basket price of PGM's.
As far as I am concerned it is a great time to be invested in JLP. JLP will be making good money on both chrome and copper, as well as foreign exchange gains. PGM's will also come right.
GLA and DYOR
Exactly. Well said Edzi. Kalan substantiated input is always valuable. I don't take too much notice of the noise but focus on the data put forward which is very helpful.
For example BT rehashing Ollie's stuff is really irrelevant, in a bull market based on the assumptions made then would have affected the sp positively. We are in a bad market for PGM's. Like Companies in the same boat. I think we can be thankful that JLP is in Zambia, their President seems to be making all the right calls. South African Companies continue to suffer and so does their share market. The still have and will for the forseeable future have electricity and water issues.
The world is a mess and inflation is beating most countries, until that changes we are going to be in a tough market. As someone earlier said people need cash, they sell their shares at any price.
58m was spent on assets - hence a negative cash position. That will translate to revenue and profit over time. JLP is making profit and has positive cash flow even in this current market with lots of negatives. Time to sit back, keep your cash in the bank or dividend paying shares and all will work out in the end.
DYOR and GLA
Sitting on the sidelines as you are Kalan is the smart thing to do. Selling JLP for some of us (ok maybe just me) is not an option. So my opinion is on the whole positive for JLP, not because I am right, but because of what is happening in the background. BT et al are clearly millennials in their thinking. They need instant gratification.
In a nutshell they see fair value at 9.9 p per share
Expect earnings to be 13m or .04 p per share
Net cash of (36.4m)
WH only see Jubilee in a cash positive situation in 2026
Makes for an easy read
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/copper-to-be-recovered-from-yet-another-on-surface-copper-resource-in-zambia-2023-12-12
The presentation in my opinion was very good and did add clarity to the Jubilee strategy.
Having said that, I think we tend to overlook the people element in favour of the numbers some of the time and Leon's mentioning of the Stratco Committee under the Board is telling in itself. I believe it is important to listen to the podcast again, just to hear what is said about each of the people recently brought on board. Jubilee clearly expect bigger things to happen and when they do it will happen fast.
As a LTH who theoretically made heaps of money, only to have lost potentially heaps of money on this rollercoaster ride can see a bright light at the end of a tunnel approaching. Make no mistake, the DRC is frought with potential disasters too, very unstable political situation, South Africa's ports and electricity and water, together with an impending election and Zambia with its issues are going to result in a more twists and turns.
The upside to the risks is that we sell our products in foreign currency, while producing in local currencies which should result in profitability (currency exchange profits) even at depressed prices.
Looking forward to a prosperous 2024.
GLA and DYOR
I think it is all good and fine being positive and hopefully getting better RNS and quarterly updates. None of which will help the share price.
Whilst I appreciate that LC is excited and growing the Company, the biggest disappointment reflected in the sp in my opinion, is that MOST investors, including me invest in commodity companies for their returns. The main reason I believe investors do this is because commodities are cyclical.
Whilst LC is growing the Board, Company and lifetime, I am concerned that he may bite off more than they can chew and grow too quickly. The last year has been good for the Comapny and directors who are the only ones who have benefited. Dividends , which were expected in 2024 have been put back a number of years now, not soley the fault of the directors but falling commodity prices due to world economics.
I don't see a recovery in the share price for a number of years because of the lack of dividends, unless an offer is made for the company as a whole. I wish I knew what Slater's position is on this as I am sure they are heavily invested on the promise of a healthy ROI.
At least we now know when the audited results are going to be released.
Looking forwarded to the news that awaits personally.
GLA & DYOR
Looks like Zambia is the place to be for the next 5 years at least :
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/barrick-to-invest-almost-2bn-in-zambia-copper-expansion-2023-10-04
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/mining-revenue-decreases-but-opportunities-abound-in-critical-minerals-beneficiation-2023-10-03
Extract from the second article :
Platinum group metals (PGMs) continued to be the biggest contributor to the total industry revenue, followed by coal. PGMs revenue decreased by 33%, followed by iron-ore, which decreased by 22% and coal by 12%. Chrome experienced a good year with a 38% increase in revenue.
The results of PGM producers have been adversely impacted on by feed and yield problems, as well as the fact that PGM prices are under pressure.
DYOR & GLA
The sellers will come - lots of people including me bought lower down.
Buy on rumour sell on news is still applicable, I have no doubt. Still encouraging to see a good lift in the SP though.
GLA and DYOR
@seisnav
I remember at an AGM I attended in London, just prior to JLP acquiring the Sable plant from Glencore, Leon was specifically asked if that was the Sable Plant that they were looking at acquiring at the time before the market announcement. Leon answered the question by saying that he couldn't disclose the information at that point but do your own research. The same bears true in this instance, if it walks like a duck, quack's like a duck ... it's a duck
DYOR
@ NtD / Seis / Mickie et al
Seis's figures are pretty overwhelming and my personal feeling is that JLP's year end results will be slightly above the previous year without blowing off the ceiling as some are hoping. The obsession of SP still gets to me and LTH's of JLP need not fear imo for the following reason :
1) Investors in commodities ultimately invest for a decent return on their investment (as opposed to investing because their will be huge capital growth i.e. Tesla, Amazon etc).
2) The share price will ultimately be determined by the return to shareholders. This has not happened in the case of JLP as they are not repaying shareholders by way of dividend or share buybacks because JLP is still in the GROWTH phase i.e. the money they make is used to reinvest in the business by acquiring further tailings or CAPEX.
3) The SP's of Companies doing a similar thing to JLP are treated exactly like JLP and all other commodity shares.
4) The fall in SLP and THA obviously relates to less earnings and smaller dividends because of the lower basket price of PGM's. Merafe's SP increased because Chrome / Ferrochrome has increased in price and Merafe increased the dividend they are paying because of the increased profit - the two go hand in hand (obviously). I can give you more examples of other commodity shares but these have been mentioned so I mention these specifically.
5) The reason we bought and continue (in my case) JLP is I believe in the Company and its future. Shares are significantly undervalued, imo too. The SP can and will increase significantly once JLP starts to pay a dividend. I challenge BT to check his chart and see when the huge rise in SLP occurred. He will see that the share was trading around 17p prior to it declaring its maiden dividend (with a market cap of around 49 million pounds. My point is DISCUSS the SP once JLP starts paying a dividend (now probably a year or two away).
6) The reason to buy JLP at these levels, even if the SP can go lower, is firstly, when they do start to pay a dividend having a decent number of shares will give you a handsome payout. Secondly, the commodities that JLP are in are currently favoured commodities (despite the current prices) which means they are easily sold for cash. Thirdly, because they are currently favoured commodities, JLP may be a target of a takeover at the current share price, one can't predict that and you have to be in it to get the reward should a takeover bid be made. Fourthly, Jubilee is a low cost producer and makes a profit even if commodity prices are low. This can only improve when commodity prices move upwards. Fifthly, the NAV of JLP grows year on year and will do so for the forseeable future (because the profit, by being a low cost producer, is reinvested in the Company). Sixthly, the majority of JLP shares are held by Instiutions, who clearly see the vision of the Jubilee way.
GLA and DYOR
@Seisnav
Thanks for your effort. It is appreciated.
@ Bjeise (and everyone else)
The BUY vs SELL
If your trade reads a sell, it means the share traded at the sellers asking price (the buyer pays more) so that is what we want as shareholders as the SP is likely to rise.
If your trade reads a buy, the opposite occurs. The seller is selling into the buyers price and hence the share is more likely to drop.
Hope that helps and clarifies things.
GLA and DYOR
Good results and or substantial increase in the price of the PGM basket will change the direction of the SP.
The communication confirms and justifies our reasons in believing that we are invested in the right company.
GLA and DYOR
Well summit, you either know what you're doing or you hang on every word of people like Leon and the ramping clowns in here.
That's not arrogance, it's confidence ;-P
I have news for you BT - It is arrogance not confidence. Had you had the confidence you speak of you would have sold Jubilee short - from 15p you called it right down to 6.8p. You could have made an absolute fortune based on your confidence. You haven't though. Whilst poor comms may not have helped the SP, ultimately the former factors play a much bigger role imo.
No one shorts Jubilee. and I will tell you why too. Because the fall in share price has been primarily due to the fall in commodity prices and broader macro economic factors, the most recent being China's poor Q2 GDP numbers. None of which you or anyone else could predict beforehand, nor can you predict when it may change in the future.
Jubilee as a Company is highly profitable, has grown substantially, in assets and diversified commodities.
My prediction is that when the JLP share price gains momentum, it will go up extremely quickly. That is why I am not selling my shares.
GLA and DYOR
@ gotreal
Have a look at this link.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/industrial-metals-investing/chromium-investing/top-chromium-producing-countries/
Finland, the FIFTH largest COUNTRY producing Chrome according to the article, producing 2.2 million Metric Tonnes (MT) per annum. That should you an indication of how much chrome (@ 1.2 million MT per annum and growing) JLP produces in comparison.
GLA and DYOR
I think Jubilee's mining risks are directly proportional to idiotic comment risks on this bulletin board.
@Nickqj
I don't believe there are longer shareholders in JLP then myself, Dorf, Seis, Mickie and a few other non vocal supporters.
We bought into a fledgling company at the time, and if anything we were HOPEFUL then that Jubilee would grow into a 10+ bagger.
Now you (and me) are investing into a maturing entity, having multiple commodities streams. The company is profitable, although not at a dividend paying level yet. All the profit made thus far has been plowed back into plant and equipment and tailings which will generate significant cashflow and profit in the future .
JLP operate in two countries, South Africa and Zambia. Both have their issues, like most other countries around the globe. JLP are working around its issues in South Africa. Zambia is on the up and up as far as I can see. Their President is an accountant and businessman and clearly understands the need for investment in Zambia.
Any short term investor looking for a quick return on their money, keep it in the bank, the interest rate cycle is not yet done and it is risk free. Higher interest rates are bad for stock markets. The price of shares are affected by the macro economies of the world. The share price (imo) at the moment is a product of the inflationary pressures on world economies and not on the Company itself . I personally feel the share price is at a level where I am comfortable accumulating more shares because I feel the Company itself is performing adequately under the current economic environment and ultimately will give me a substantial return on my money when I decide to sell.
As an individual investor, I cannot move SP's and have to invest for the future not for the now. Those significant shareholders accumulating JLP are investing in the future earnings, not "the current share price". If anyone wants / needs immediate returns, JLP, (imo) is not the share for them.
The time for hope is over. The company now issues RNS's which set out the Directors expectations of performance, like all the bigger commodity players. That is what we are invested and investing in now. I had 300 000 JLP shares when the market cap was approximately £29 million. Even at these current prices, which I believe to be extremely low, the market cap is around £205 million, (I own approx 1.3 million JLP shares). I have about 4 times the number of shares in a company whose value has increased about 8 times (including all the share dilutions). In a nutshell over time I think I have done okay. I have stated numerous times before, the current share price is irrelevant to me unless I am wanting to buy more shares. Once the northern copper (Zambia) and eastern limb (South Africa) projects are fully on stream, I will reassess. GLA