I haven't sold my shares. I am invested because PGM tailings treatment is a good business to be in. I believe (if managed correctly) that JLP can achieve a higher valuation. My exit price is repeatedly lowered and my exit timing is repeatedly extended, partly due to poor management decisions. Think of it like this, I might like the country I live in but I have the right to point out the blatant missteps of the individuals running the country.
I have stated previously that I am not invested in JLP for the management, but the PGM exposure. I have also said before that I would vote to demote Leon to CTO and install somebody who knows how to set expectations and keeps the market informed of any deviations for whatever reason. If Leon and co were a bit more honest and transparent I wouldn't be so bitter towards them and their actions.
So your rationale is that a person can't critique another unless they the same experience. So I suppose every football fan must have played football before criticizing a football player, every movie critic must have made a movie and nobody can comment on politicians unless they have been a politician themselves. Are you starting to see the stupidity of your comment yet?
There are many examples of which unbiased long-term holders can attest to. I would be here all day if I had to list them all. Today's examples are:
- A set of half-year results that used 6-month comparatives and deliberately omitted the standard yearly comparatives. A deliberate attempt to hide the considerable drop in PGM production and earnings. - The use of chrome as a by-product offset to lower the PGM unit cost when we all know that chrome extraction is a precursor to the PGM production and has always been reported separately. Another shifty move to obfuscate the considerable rise in PGM costs.
That interview had more waffle than a pancake parlor. Leon talks about growth but fails to mention he is using the train wreck results of H2 CY 2021 as the reference. As for delivering projects on time, I might have to buy him a calendar. Each and every copper production estimate JLP has given has been missed so far. Leon probably thinks he and the board deserve some fat pay increases too on all the "good" news.
What is there is to address? Of course I used the lower PGM prices as an input for my estimates. The point is that my September 2021 prediction was met with responses like "having an agenda", "shorter", "negative bias". I suppose you were the only one to agree with my prediction back then.
As we have seen today, the lower FY21/22 PGM earnings is not just a result of lower PGM prices. PGM production is down year-on-year, unit cost is considerably higher and worse of all PGM production estimates going forward have been lowered.
Don't let a dose of reality deter you from overly optimistic estimates going forward.
SeisNav, WH Ireland were still forecasting an EPS of GBX 1.9 for FY21/22 earlier this year. If you recall, my views of a much lower EPS was in the minority on this board. Now it seems the lower EPS was obvious, yeah right!
As to your prediction of $150M FY22/23 operating profit, you may want to reconsider those numbers to well under $100M.
As I predicted back in Sep 2021, the FY21/22 results would be considerably lower and today's results were even worse than I expected. After reviewing the RNS I have many concerns but I will no longer be sharing my estimates and analysis here. I will just let the cheerleaders continue to post there wildly optimistic and unsubstantiated views and will chuckle quietly in the shadows.
I am using the WH Ireland split, adjusted for higher rhodium content coming from the Eastern limb. To pacify the cheerleaders here who can't handle hearing bad news, the 6 month average comparison is showing an increase in the current half.
JUL-21 to DEC-21 USD 2,655, ZAR 39,773 JAN-22 to JUN-22 USD 2,788, ZAR 42,770 *so far.
So instead of talking nonsense, post your monthly average PGM basket prices if you want to dispute what I am posting.
Nice to see copper prices flying today. Whilst it is nice to see the platinum price over $1,000 again but we should remember that JLP's PGM revenue is not solely dependent on the price of platinum. The current basket price is 3% down from the MAY-22 average in USD terms and 5% down in ZAR terms. The price of Rhodium is the one to watch and it is not participating in the rally (for now).
Dorfan, whatever metric you use, FY21/22 will be worse FY20/21. We can agree that JLP's future is bright but there are bumps in the road to negotiate, some avoidable and some out of JLP's control. Let's hope JLP can navigate safely through the bumps, plan for the bumps outside of their control and ultimately increase the EPS over the next 2 years.
I suggest you read the interim results released in March which state EPS 0.3p for the first half of FY21/22. The results also state the cash at hand at GBP21.5m. If you think JLP are going to achieve EPS of 1.7p in the second half of FY21/22 I suggest you buy a new calculator.
Yes, the EPS for FY21/22 will suck. Back in Sep 2021 I stated:
"The way I see it, unless PGM prices make a super quick recovery, JLP will see a 15-25% decline in the FY21/22 EPS vs FY20/21. Then JLP should see the EPS bounce back in FY22/23 to slightly surpass the FY20/21. FY23/24 is when the real earnings start to kick in (if copper prices remain where they are or increase). "
It is rather odd or incompetent of WH Ireland to still be predicting an EPS of 1.9p for FY21/22. Let's hope the market is very forward looking and the share price doesn't get destroyed in the meantime.
You have never brought any insight onto this board, the majority of your posts are just fantastical cheerleading, lovely to read, but stupid to believe. I doubt you have ability to refuse the opportunity to debate what I say, you are just incapable. At least I bring a different and substantiated point of view of which posters can evaluate and agree or disagree with in a constructive manner.