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Dorfan
Read my post again, it is correct. I am not sure how you have interpreted my post, but that is up to you to resolve.
My monthly average PGM basket prices are as follows:
JAN-22 USD 2,631, ZAR 40,834
FEB-22 USD 2,866, ZAR 43,648
MAR-22 USD 3,074, ZAR 46,046
APR-22 USD 2,943, ZAR 44,099
MAY-22 USD 2,641, ZAR 41,978
JUN-22 USD 2,572, ZAR 40,017 *so far
I am using the WH Ireland split, adjusted for higher rhodium content coming from the Eastern limb. To pacify the cheerleaders here who can't handle hearing bad news, the 6 month average comparison is showing an increase in the current half.
JUL-21 to DEC-21 USD 2,655, ZAR 39,773
JAN-22 to JUN-22 USD 2,788, ZAR 42,770 *so far.
So instead of talking nonsense, post your monthly average PGM basket prices if you want to dispute what I am posting.
Nice to see copper prices flying today. Whilst it is nice to see the platinum price over $1,000 again but we should remember that JLP's PGM revenue is not solely dependent on the price of platinum. The current basket price is 3% down from the MAY-22 average in USD terms and 5% down in ZAR terms. The price of Rhodium is the one to watch and it is not participating in the rally (for now).
Dorfan, whatever metric you use, FY21/22 will be worse FY20/21. We can agree that JLP's future is bright but there are bumps in the road to negotiate, some avoidable and some out of JLP's control. Let's hope JLP can navigate safely through the bumps, plan for the bumps outside of their control and ultimately increase the EPS over the next 2 years.
Dorfan
I suggest you read the interim results released in March which state EPS 0.3p for the first half of FY21/22. The results also state the cash at hand at GBP21.5m. If you think JLP are going to achieve EPS of 1.7p in the second half of FY21/22 I suggest you buy a new calculator.
Gray1
Yes, the EPS for FY21/22 will suck. Back in Sep 2021 I stated:
"The way I see it, unless PGM prices make a super quick recovery, JLP will see a 15-25% decline in the FY21/22 EPS vs FY20/21. Then JLP should see the EPS bounce back in FY22/23 to slightly surpass the FY20/21. FY23/24 is when the real earnings start to kick in (if copper prices remain where they are or increase). "
It is rather odd or incompetent of WH Ireland to still be predicting an EPS of 1.9p for FY21/22. Let's hope the market is very forward looking and the share price doesn't get destroyed in the meantime.
MikeSunday
You have never brought any insight onto this board, the majority of your posts are just fantastical cheerleading, lovely to read, but stupid to believe. I doubt you have ability to refuse the opportunity to debate what I say, you are just incapable. At least I bring a different and substantiated point of view of which posters can evaluate and agree or disagree with in a constructive manner.
NorthernShark
I have never said I am shorting the stock and I have never shorted JLP and it would be unwise to short JLP. You must have me confused with somebody else.
MikeSunday
You are another poster who can't handle reading anything negative about JLP. Instead of debating what I post about, you and a few others prefer to think I must have some fearmongering agenda. I hope that I don't need to post anything negative about JLP in the future.
Gotreal
You are now on my ignore list.
SeisNav
I don't know what the shortfall will be, but I know there will be a shortfall. I wouldn't be surprised if JLP had to raise/finance $USD50 million for both the Eastern Limb and Northern copper expansion.
You shouldn't have provided the link to the Roadshow presentation, I think you have ruined Gotreal's silly idea that JLP does not additional funding for its expansion. Shame on you :)
Gotreal
Yes, they are FACTS. I don't need to be told exact capital budgets to establish facts. Unlike you, I can use my brain to figure it out myself and the shortfall is obvious to all, just not you.
I think you will find yourself alone in your belief that JLP has the cash (or can generate the cash) to fund the Eastern limb and Northern copper expansion.
gotreal, I am not wasting my time explaining the facts to you. You continually ignore facts and common sense.
To all others, if you think JLP has the cash or ability to generate the cash to fund the Eastern limb and Northern copper expansion plans, please refer to recent JLP interviews, latest general meeting, cash on hand at 31-Dec-21 and a basic understanding of mathematics.
I watched the interview and noticed the statement about the desire not to use equity placements. Unfortunately, it was caveated with "as a first option". It seems to be a repeat of the last capital raise, which was, all but tell the market that they are not going to issue equity and then just issue equity anyway. I understand the strategy for making such a statement, but I am (and most likely the wider market) not going to be fooled into thinking JLP will not be issuing equity soon. The facts are clear, the Eastern limb expansion and Northern copper strategy requires more money than JLP has/generates. Let's hope for a less painful dilution event, or even better, a less painful debt financing.
Dorfan
I am not being cynical, so treat this a genuine question....how does a content Zambian government official help JLP? Is there some approval or license that is pending that I am not aware of? Can you provide some evidence that would impact the share price (as you suggested)?
gotreal
I understand you are referring to me, so let me explain my rationale. I want JLP to do well, I have a lot riding on it hence why I am passionate about this stock. I want JLP to play their cards correctly and seize the opportunities out there but do it in a conservative and sound manner. I want JLP to be focused on increasing shareholder wealth, i.e. focus on EPS, not just increasing revenue and potential earnings. This financial year will see a drop in EPS and next financial year should hopefully see an increase in EPS that exceeds FY19/20.
To give you an example of the way I think, let's talk about the Eastern limb expansion. JLP was not forced to expand in the Eastern limb, they chose to do so. They have entered into a contract where they need to process the Eastern limb tailings, incurring a massive transportation cost, a cost which was larger than they envisaged due to the oil price rise. Rhodium prices have dropped since the Eastern limb tailings processing commenced exacerbating the problems with the economics. I am not saying they are making a loss processing the Eastern limb tailings, I am saying the margins are not as good as they expected. JLP now NEED to build a plant in the Eastern limb to improve the economics of that contract. Do you expect me to be happy with this scenario? I am not. So now we are in a situation where JLP don't have the funds to expand into the Eastern limb and as history tells us, JLP will most likely do a capital raise (another dilution event). Given we are about to enter a period of global economic slowdown due to central banks being forced to raise interest rates, I would have preferred JLP delay the Eastern limb expansion until they have the funds in the bank. JLP could then acquire the tailings rights and mothballed facilities at a cheaper price and not have to raise capital. If JLP had enough cash and debt financing, they can do what they like, but when they continually choose to dilute existing shareholders, I have every right to be critical of their actions and decisions.
As for the majority of what I post here, it is backed up with facts. I have asked you many times, debate the facts I present so we can have a constructive discussion. As for my credibility, don't worry about who I am, worry about what I am saying and if you don't have anything constructive to say, don't say it all.
gotreal
Oh please! JLP is Micky Mouse compared to Vedanta. Wake me up when JLP signs a JV with the Zambian government.
Dorfan
If JLP were operating in China and it was a Chinese government official, then the relationship might be of value. Wake me up when that government official has a low-interest loan in his hand. With that said, there is no harm being liked by the government, just nothing to get excited about and it definitely doesn't do anything for the share price.
Dorfan
Can I assume you are joking? I am talking numbers, past, current and potential and you are more interested into photos with a government official? Is JLP awaiting any governmental approval that would impact the share price? The answer is no.
The share price is constant/stagnant most likely because investors are hoping (as I am) that JLP will soon start delivering profits on the copper operations. The share price is also constant/stagnant most likely because the confetti cannon is set to fire in the next couple of months.
NorthernShark
Yes, the cobalt circuit was good news and I said that. As I said before the cobalt circuit is most likely a sandbox environment to refine their processes and not a commercial operation at this stage. JLP will need time, maybe a year to determine the optimal process to extract cobalt when the Northern operation kicks in. Leon even implied this strategy during the Proactive interview. I don't expect any significant cobalt revenue or earnings for another year or two and even that is not guaranteed. Let's hope JLP pull it off.
gotreal
This is why I post here, because posters like yourself see a cobalt circuit with a capacity of 1,200tons/pa and automatically think JLP will be producing this amount in the near term. Anyway, don't let me lure you away from Fantasy Land, I am sure it is pure bliss there.