Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
MikieSunday
I have never insisted to only go by written publications. You are thinking of somebody else.
I am desperate? I am not shorting JLP, I posted my long holdings a while back just to stupidly prove that I am long but I suppose that wasn't good enough. I have been posting on here about JLP for since 2019 mostly in a positive light as the share price was low, potential was high and the shares on issue were reasonable. I think JLP is currently reasonably priced given the opportunity and risks. I have never ever said JLP is overpriced.
I don't need to discredit JLP, they do a good enough job of it themselves. I accompany my comments with detail and facts, focus on that rather than my "boogeyman agenda". Most people on here don't bother to go into the detail, they are dazzled by the prospects of massive revenue streams without a care of timelines, costs and capital outlays to get there. I argue for balance because all I see here is most people getting excited about prospects and they have little idea of the financials. I will praise JLP when they get it right and blast them when they don't. This is balance.
Look at the scoreboard (share price), JLP is on the cusp of potentially doubling its revenue streams and maybe earnings over the next couple of years and the share price is stagnant. Ask yourself why and then maybe you will understand what I am posting about. I know why the share price is stagnant and if JLP had a normal investor relations contact I would be giving them an earful.
SeisNav
Listen to the proactive interview, Leon says "modest" and note his facial expression. Do I have to spoon feed you anything else?
JLPpositive
Sorry I am quite confused by your post. The main resolution of the general meeting was to issue up to 10% of the share capital. I don't quite follow what you are saying. Can you be more specific?
Regarding the 25K ton/pa target within 4 years, you might recall that was issued 3 years, but anyway delays are normal and can be forgiven. What gives me grief is when a CEO sets expectations and does nothing to realign those expectations when unforeseen circumstances arise.
SeisNav
Don't confuse production capacity with production estimates. During the Proactive interview with Leon (on youtube watch?v=nWR1NBvsnzU&t=1s) Leon states the cobalt production will be modest. Don't confuse revenue with earnings. My take on the cobalt circuit is they want a sandbox to play in to get ready for the Northern operation. So the cobalt circuit is not to offset production costs.
gotreal
I can always rely on you to be most offended by reality. You couldn't organize a constructive post if you had Bob the Builder by your side. Try to argue any of the points I have made. I know you won't because you can't or you just prefer to munch on the blue pill (FYI matrix reference). Best you step aside and the let the adults have a healthy debate.
As expected the usual insults start flying my way but I would prefer someone try to match my posts with substance to debate the points I have made. Most here just like to sweep the bad news under the carpet and focus on an overly-optimistic future.
Jonah
Yes, that is a fair point regarding the flexibility. Let's hope it translates to financial performance improvements.
Roan
The operational ramp up was meant to be completed during May 2022 and has now slipped to July 2022. So another 2 month delay which makes a total of 4 months delay based on the copper production estimates published last year. I am sure JLP will still claim an on-budget on-time project delivered whenever it finally ramps up.
Cobalt
Whilst it is nice to see JLP building the cobalt circuit there was absolutely no mention of production estimates. Considering JLP told us cobalt doesn’t come online until the Northern strategy starts, it is rather confusing why they are building the cobalt circuit now. It would have been nice to inform the market what the intention is with the cobalt circuit given the pivot from previous guidance.
EPS FY21/22
Somebody mentioned that WH Ireland are still estimating a EPS of 1.9p for this financial year. Laughable. JLP will be lucky if they can manage 1.5p even with the weaker GBP. My estimate is 1.2p.
I had a chance to read the RNS properly and I didn’t see a single bit of good news, even the cobalt news is shrouded in confusion.
Inyoni
So we learnt that the expansion has been recently completed. This means it took about a year to construct and ramp up. What was touted by JLP management as a modest expansion with little impact was not true both in timing and cost.
PGM Production
CY Q1-2022 PGM production was 8,018 oz. JLP was targeting 43-48K for FY21/22, JLP produced 20,316 oz in the second half of CY 2021, which means it needed to produce at least 23K oz in the current half-year. The only way to meet this target is if the Windsor JV is running at max capacity, i.e. at 16K oz per year. Going forward, JLP max PGM production is (Inyoni at 3,500 per month, 42K per year + Windsor 16K) 58K oz per year. Given JLP produced 28,187 oz in H2-2020, its seems like PGM production hasn’t really improved in 2 years even after spending a bucket on the Inyoni expansion. Some will say that since the Inyoni expansion, JLP is relying less on the JV partner so there is more profit to JLP. Unfortunately JLP now has an extra ~$200/oz transportation cost that it didn’t have 2 years ago. To put that into perspective, the transportation cost is huge, based on $200/oz, the transportation cost annually is estimated at $8,000,000. I really hope to be wrong about this figure because it is huge.
I can see why Leon is desperate to get the Eastern limb expansion moving. When you factor in the JV share for Eastern limb tailings and the transportation cost, it would negate most if not all the benefit of the higher rhodium content. So JLP has backed itself into a corner and the only way out to is buy/construct a plant in the Eastern limb.
Capital raise
So I think it is clear to all now why the general meeting was convened. Leon is ready to push the button the Eastern limb expansion and is most likely priming the confetti cannon once again. So can JLP fund the Eastern limb expansion with cash? I doubt it because the copper expansion will be utilizing all cash on hand. Can JLP fund the Eastern limb expansion with debt financing? Yes, they could, but it is clear that JLP prefer to raise capital or maybe JLP have no choice because they can’t get debt financing at reasonable rates. JLP has yet to enter into a reasonably priced-debt financing contract. Can the Eastern limb expansion be the first one? I hope so and hope it will be the first of a few.
For those not following the news on the gold strike at Sibanye in South Africa. There is a more than likely chance of a secondary strike in the Sibanye platinum operations later this month. www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-zj6_sOvZI (15 minute mark).
Charles
Thanks for the response but the only official response to the delay for processing Kabwe is the low/unpredictable vanadium prices. As per your post, you think the delay is caused by lack of processing capacity at Sable. If my understanding is correct and its actually true, then JLP would have said it. There would be less shame in JLP admitting lack of capacity versus needing higher/stable prices. What do you think?
gotreal
I have never said that JLP's communication or lack thereof is unique to JLP, this is your interpretation of my comments. Just because other companies do the same or similar doesn't make it right. At least there are few of us who are not blind to it.
Whilst I am not defending Tharisa, nor do I follow them, at least they published an estimated cost, setting a clear expectation and allowing themselves to be held accountable for meeting the expectation. JLP misled us on the cost of the Inyoni expansion cost and never published the copper expansion cost.
As for painting everything black, that's absurd, I would run out of paint :) I am just highlighting the black parts and sprinkling them with the bountiful JLP confetti. I pine for the day when I discard my black paint can and focus on singing from the JLP gospel.
Dorfan
There is no need to ask why we don't get quarterly results. JLP doesn't do quarterly reporting and has categorically said that.
There is little point requesting JLP improve their communication. They are fully aware of the problem and made a commitment to improve a few years ago, making statements like "holding regular webinars". Let's say they didn't make good on their promises. Most long term shareholders will know that JLP will tell you the good news and delay/hide/obfuscate the bad news. When the copper operations ramp up later this year (hopefully), JLP might change their tune and switch to quarterly reporting.
Charles
As mentioned previously, JLP can't economically extract the zinc. JLP are saying they need higher vanadium prices before they purse the zinc operation. This must have been a disappointment for management and to shareholders given JLP invested a significant amount in Kabwe. I think JLP have learnt their lesson and are taking a different approach in Cyprus. In Cyprus they are testing before they commit funding. Kabwe is a bit like Tjate, a great resource, but just not economical at current prices. Maybe one day in the distant future Kabwe and Tjate will realize their potential.
MikeSunday
You don't have to wait until July to know what the PGM earnings will be. JLP published their production forecast, you can see the average PGM basket price and work out the figures from there. But of course you prefer to be optimistic so don't let me spoil that for you.
SeisNav
As for my holdings. Who cares how many shares I have or what my average price is. You should be more interested in the content of my posts.
MikieSunday, we have discussed PGM production figures. PGM earnings will not see any significant increase over previous periods (Excluding the shocking second half of 2021) unless PGM prices skyrocket. Refer back to previous posts for the detail.
gotreal
You may have misinterpreted "gobble-up". Let me be clearer. Any free cash flow generated from ROAN for the next 6-18 months will go towards funding the next copper phase(s). I don't have a problem with that, I actually think it is a prudent approach.
I have absolutely no problem with JLP reinvesting their EXISTING funds for future growth and have never said anything to the contrary. JLP can do whatever they want with their money. I just have a problem when they go begging for more.
gotreal
I think I understand why you have trouble agreeing with what I am saying. I am using words with too many syllables for you, sorry about that, completely my fault. I will use one syllable words to help you understand. Are you ready?
Funds earnt from first phase will help pay for next phase. If you don't think I am right, read the stuff the big boss says. The point is that if we had all the funds now we would build it all at once. We not so rich so we go slow. This keeps us glad as we not need to raise funds for not so cheap roll out.
Was that understandable for you or do I have to dumb it down even further?
Summit...Please note that the current copper operations roll-out will gobble up whatever FCF Roan and Sable generate.
agdevil..."If you don't have faith in the board, then you are invested in the wrong share." Whilst this is a general rule, there are many instances of board members being ousted by shareholders. I am not saying that is going to happen here, but it technically possible so you don't have to like the board to like the company.
Anyway, onto more constructive discussions....
So the soon-to-be capital raise is most likely for the Eastern Limb expansion. There are several reasons for this guess:
- Recent announcements have eluded to the desire to expand there.
- Recent announcements are divulging never before released information as a way to justify the capex required.
- JLP are already committed there with an existing contract(s) and the transportation of the tailings to Inyoni is not a long-term solution.
- The transportation costs of US$ 262 (for the half-year 2021) will have increased considerably with increases in fuel costs over the past 6 months.
- The expansion is a bit of a juggling act that needs a big bang approach. JLP need sufficient material to justify building a new plant in the Eastern Limb. JLP need a plant to process the material as transportation to Inyoni is not economically efficient. So the only solution is to go big and get it all sorted quickly, hence the need for extra cash.
So in summary, JLP will probably want access to $30-50million (equity dilution, existing cash and small loan) to set up shop in the Eastern Limb and are probably looking to buy some tailings to secure the supply. All of this is a guess but I am willing to bet a dollar on it. If they do reveal the plan before the general meeting and my guess is correct, I will still vote a big fat no.