Member Info for Homeytheclown

gotreal

You are right, SLP have no plans to grow the number of shares on issue :). SLP kept it simple, rode the PGM price boom and the long-termers there made a lot more than JLP shareholders. Just goes to show what JLP share price could have been if JLP didn't embark on a diversification strategy founded on endless share dilution.

I must have missed your post to apologize for your posts back in August. It would be wise to admit you were wrong.

Edzi

My average buy price is 3.37p and most long term holders have similar averages. I am not annoyed at missing the chance to raise my average buy price :)

As for SLP, they have done a much better job of increasing their EPS compared to JLP and done so with their credibility in tact.

edzi

Thanks for the constructive response. I am not upset about the dilution event, I am disgusted that Colin Bird said there would not be any dilution and did it anyway. I am disappointed that the company set an expectation and it was not met, i.e. no need for dilution. In the same interview Colin boasted about his copper vision and how right he was, yet he didn't have the vision to realize that the company he chairs may be in need of additional funds within a month.

If you like I can cite many other instances were JLP have set expectations and have not met them, just as an example:
- Zinc starting Q3-2021 (now).
- Initial copper production estimates made that are yet to be realized.
- Chrome revenue estimates.
- DCM tailings

In my business, I set an expectation and if I am unlikely to meet it, then I inform my clients. No technical expertise or brains are required for that, just a bit common respect for others.

Billboy

I heard the same, but best to add the usual 10-20% lag on the Northern Refinery time estimates to be prudent.

The way I see it, unless PGM prices make a super quick recovery, JLP will see a 15-25% decline in the FY21/22 EPS vs FY20/21. Then JLP should see the EPS bounce back in FY22/23 to slightly surpass the FY20/21. FY23/24 is when the real earnings start to kick in (if copper prices remain where they are or increase). One can do their own calculations based on the copper production timeline provided in the latest company presentation.

edzi

The ostrich effect, also known as the ostrich problem, is a cognitive bias that describes how people often avoid negative information, including feedback that could help them monitor their goal progress. Instead of dealing with the situation, we bury our heads in the sand, like ostriches.

Anyone notice the estimated copper unit cost per ton was stated at USD$4,500 during the interview? This is an increase from the previous USD$4,000 estimate. Another subtle kick in the guts.

gotreal

"It may well also have been at the request of the source of finance as undoubtedly there is one already." What source of finance are you referring to? Do you understand how capital raises work?

As for the hydrogen economy, you may want to do more research on that. Platinum demand is currently insignificant and any significant demand if it transpires is still years away.

Please refer to back to your posts in August and you may see who the clown was.

Craigmccollum306

I disagree with your statement regarding the purpose of the capital raise. JLP are seeking to raise GBP 30M, yet the value of the transactions GBP 17.83M.

The reality is that JLP are spending more than they are earning and Leon communicated this. PGM revenue has been and will be adversely impacted by the recent and considerable fall in PGM basket price. JLP failed to utilize or was unable to get reasonably priced debt financing or chose to shaft existing shareholders to cover the cash shortfall. To make matters worse, we have a chairman engaging in deceptive practices. Not exactly a happy day for shareholders.

To those who gave me a hard time for commenting on the likelihood for a placing, specifically Gotreal, Frogboy, well don't you look the fool now. I will accept your apology.

Colin Bird is either an outright liar or incompetent. To go on public record to suggest that dilution is not going to happen and then to raise 30 million GBP just a month later is either deceitful or incompetence!

For those commenting on copper figures, you can start by looking at the last week's investor presentation. Page 19 shows the expected copper production figures as follows (in tons):

Q3-2021 = 250
Q4-2021 = 500
Q1-2022 = 1,230
Q2-2022 = 2,300
Q3-2022 = 3,000
Q4-2022 = 3,800
Q1-2023 = 5,350
Q2-2023 = 6,800
Q3-2023 = 7,400
Q4-2023 = 7,400

Based on the presentation, the copper earnings start to really make an impact in FY22/23.

Well done to JLP for publishing a timeline on the copper production.

Frogboy

I am not here to pander to the masses, Homey don't play that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_QhuBIkPXn0

If you think thumbs up on your posts makes you right, you may be interested in this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostrich_effect

If you feel insulted, you probably should consider how insulting it is to accuse a long-term shareholder of having an agenda.

Feel free to dispute any of the figures I have posted, otherwise keep your unfounded comments to yourself.

Frogboy

Good choice. Next time think before you make stupid comments.

Frogboy

What is my agenda? To reduce the value of my JLP shares? The share price is in freefall, some of us are trying to discuss why and your comments add zero value to the discussion.

Instead of making stupid comments, make a constructive response if you are capable of that.

JLPpositive,

It is great to see WH Ireland estimating PGM production at 55K oz pa. I can't see how how a 45% expansion at the Inyoni plant will make up for the loss of Windsor/Eland plant, let alone exceed it. I suppose we can hope.

As for the share price freefall, I guess the market understands JLP needs cash and the market doesn't like it.

Dorfan

I think your reference to "Inyoni 2" is just the expansion of Inyoni plant. So JLP's current PGM operations is limited to a single Inyoni plant with a targeted capacity of 75,000 tons / month. As for Windsor 8, my understanding that is just a chrome processing plant which will feed into Inyoni.

I would love to revise my figures upwards but I can't see how I can do that. Feel free to have a go:

16,500 * 0.073 yield = 1,208 (Eastern Limb tailings)
58,500 * 0.05 yield = 2,925 (Historical/Other tailings)
Total is 4,133 oz per month for annual total of 49,596 PGM ounces.

Once we can agree on the production estimates, we can work on estimating the PGM earnings.

Dorfan

What is "Inyoni 2"? JLP only have one PGM operation at the moment, the expanded Inyoni plant with a targeted processing capacity of 75,000 tons/month.

How do you know Windsor only operated 7 or 8 months?

Sumo

The tailings from the Eastern limb are subject to a profit share (majority of earnings going to JLP). In the latest operations update, the PGM project earnings were GPB 36.725 million, and the earnings attributable to JLP were GBP 36.459 million. So GBP 266K was given to the owner of the Eastern limb tailings and that was just for a maximum of 1 month's production.
The split of the earnings is anyone's guess at this stage.

As for PGM earnings being higher in FY 2022, there is a slim chance and it really depends on the price of Rhodium.

Jonah

The latest RNS does not include tons processed (correct me if I am wrong) so I am not sure where you are getting your figures from. If a use a yield of 0.05 oz per ton which has never been achieved by JLP, the figures are as follows:

16,500 * 0.073 yield = 1,208 (Eastern Limb tailings)
58,500 * 0.05 yield = 2,925 (Historical/Other tailings)
Total is 4,133 oz per month for annual total of 49,596 PGM ounces.

My point is still the same, FY2022 PGM production will be less than FY2021. I hope JLP communicate otherwise.

Charles

Can you please explain how you arrived at 4,500 PGM oz per month from the expanded Inyoni PGM plant? I am not saying you are wrong, I just want to know your logic.

Northman...The amount of tailings remaining is irrelevant. Northam Platinum were processing our material whilst they ramped up their Eland mine. It was always going to be a limited duration operation. We should get an update from Northam Platinum later this month, but those updates tend to be blurry from a JLP perspective.