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gotreal
I see you are still doing the blah blah blah thing, calling out posters with negative views. I still have forgotten your posts regarding the last equity raise and your unwillingness to admit your blatant mistake. Until you come to this forum with some substance, your posts translate to blah blah blah.
Mikie
Thanks for the polite response. My previous posts referred to FY21/22 PGM production estimates which ranged from 40-50K oz. So I am happy to hear JLP are targeting 50K oz rather than 40K oz. There is a subtle difference between target and estimated production. The "news" of the 55K oz is not news, this is in the corporate presentation as the design capacity of upgraded Inyoni plant. A further note to consider, the original Inyoni plant had a design capacity of 2,500 oz/month which was not achieved until at least a year after commencing production. Given the PGM production figures were rarely separately reported between Inyoni and Windsor it was always difficult measure the Inyoni performance.
In summary, I will revise my production estimates to be 48-50K oz for FY21/22 and 50-55K oz for subsequent years.
Mikie
You seem to make a habit of exaggerating or misunderstanding JLP's actual and expected performance. To quote you "Does that mean we can expect more than 55k oz target in reality?" Today's RNS clearly states a longer term target of 55K oz. So why do you raise the question of target exceeding that?
To quote you again
"But I note the in excess of 25k tonne elephant date has been put back to end of 23. From recent promotions I had end of 22 in my mind. "
If you read the presentation from August you will have seen the 25K ton copper target was scheduled for late 2023. If you had it in mind for 2022 then you either don't read the company material, live in a Disney fantasy land or just have an overly optimistic view of JLP.
Agreed, no new information. Expected copper production is as per the corporate presentation so again nothing new there. I was surprised to see the Inyoni expansion costing $21 million. The RNS clarifies PGM production for this FY and beyond at puts to bed some people's expectations of significant PGM production increases. So 50K PGM oz for this FY (same as last FY) and targeting 55K thereafter.
Today's CMRS RNS is good news for JLP. JLP don't have the money to support a JV and would have had to raise equity (project loans are unicorns to JLP). With copper earnings starting to kick in around mid 2022, JLP could fund the JV in 2023.
Dorfan
As stated in the corporate presentation back in August 2021:
"Design capacity offers potential to achieve 4 500 oz PGMs per month at Inyoni alone".
So even after the Inyoni upgrade, PGM production capacity is 54Koz pa. Considering the expansion wasn't due to finish until August 2021, the typical maintenance, adverse weather, blah blah blah, I am comfortable with my FY21/22 PGM production estimate of 40-50K oz.
Regarding Windsor 8, we can only assume/guess what the yield will be. We discussed this back in August and revised my estimate as follows (increasing yield from 0.047 to 0.05):
16,500 * 0.073 yield = 1,208 (Eastern Limb tailings)
58,500 * 0.05 yield = 2,925 (Historical/Other tailings)
Total is 4,133 oz per month for annual total of 49,596 PGM ounces.
NoExcuses
PGM Production estimates range from 45-55K oz pa. My estimate is toward the lower end based on my the following calculation:
16,500 * 0.073 yield = 1,208 (Eastern Limb tailings)
58,500 * 0.045 yield = 2,632 (Historical/Other tailings)
Total is 3,840 oz per month for annual total of 46,080 PGM ounces.
MikieSunday
There is little to no chance JLP will issue a quarterly update. First of all, JLP doesn't issue quarterly updates (unless they have exceptionally good news to report). Secondly, the financials for this quarter will be terrible. Copper production is estimated at 250 tons which is a decrease on previous periods. PGM production and revenue will not be great given the lower PGM prices and the Inyoni expansion most likely impacting production.
HighlyGeared
I think you are making a rather optimistic assumption that JLP is still supplying the surface sources to the Eland operation. The Northam financial report https://senspdf.jse.co.za/documents/2021/JSE/ISSE/NPHE/AFS_2021.pdf indicates Eland are struggling to get material "Reduced availability of surface sources led to a negative impact on production at Eland.". From what I remember of the Eland deal, JLP had about 1 million tons and were trucking 60K tons per month to Eland. The JV had an expected duration of 2 years which has now run its course. If JLP had the material available, JLP would be shipping the material, especially as they were/are desperate for cash. I will be happy to be wrong.
Edzi
Is it naïve for me to expect the company not to dilute the shareholders after Leon and Colin repeatedly said no more dilution and clearly explained that these projects would use existing cash flow and debt financing? JLP can do what they want, what they can't do is mislead investors, this is called fraud.
As to those making comments about "IP and process protection", JLP already had a majority beneficial interest and were already the operator before this week's transactions. Somehow now, with an increased beneficial interest, JLP can magically ensure nobody can spy on their tailings treatment processes. JLP is not the only company in the world processing copper tailings.
Here is some food for thought. Isn't it a coincidence that PGM prices tank and JLP raise cash? Maybe the capital raise was done because PGM earnings would be insufficient to continue with the copper expansion. JLP couldn't get reasonable debt financing so went to market to raise equity. To keep everyone focused on the shiny carrot JLP increased their beneficial interest in the copper projects to disguise the true reason for the capital raise. A plausible theory.
gotreal
Yes, we are aware that you believed Colin Bird when he said no dilution, instead of considering my comments to the contrary. How did that work out for you? If you blindly believe CEOs, chairmen, politicians, etc you are naïve. Think for yourself for a change...and take some pity on me as I don't have an armchair :(
NorthernShark
The owners don't need the skills, they were already able to just sit back and let JLP do all the hard work and take on all the risk.
Yes, I agree the move into copper was good so I am happy about that. The timeline for the earnings is well overdue based on previous indications provided by JLP but I will forgive them on that point. If the PGM prices didn't spike as they did, the copper expansion plan could have diluted the long-term holders to insignificance.
What really concerns me is that JLP have said no more dilution and have the opportunity to minimize dilution but instead proceed with the dilution to grow earnings. Increased earnings look great and justifies remuneration increases for the top brass but it then diminishes share price growth potential and that is what we are all here for.
gotreal
You continue to provide comments of zero substance. You continue to omit you were wrong last month. At least if you admit it, you can restore a sliver of credibility. Instead you will be deemed as just another optimistic cheerleader mesmerized by the shiny carrot.
Why don't you ask JLP to raise a billion pounds with an equity raise and buy every tailings dump they can get their hands on.
Highlygeared.
As shareholders, we are all back-seat drivers and it is an automatic right when you buy in. As for how businesses work, they typically take on a reasonable level of debt rather the dilute shareholders. If this was such an awesome deal with huge low-risk and huge rewards why couldn't it have been funded by debt at a reasonable interest rate? Have you asked yourself why the banks weren't fighting over themselves to provide funding to such a successful company like JLP? JLP often touted its 50 million debt facility but has never used it. JLP has a shocking history of debt financing, Darwin screwed us and JLP got screwed with the ACAM deal.
As for the copper transactions themselves, do you think the sellers were distressed and were begging JLP to buy more of an interest? Do you think JLP paid peanuts for it? JLP did a good deal (and got a bit lucky) buying out the Hernic interest (again with dilution) but that was when PGM prices were historically low. The copper transactions this week were done with historically high copper prices so the jury is out whether it turns out to be a good deal or not (I hope it will be).
NorthernShark
Whether it is a good strategy or not is not my point but we can debate that too if you want. :)
My point is that it is non-essential.
Noexcuses,
I would say those WH Ireland figures need to be updated given a lot has changed since their publication.
PGM prices have tanked. The rhodium price is well down so the tailings from the Eastern limb will not be as profitable (need to consider 400Km transport cost and profit share with tailings owner). So I am forecasting PGM earnings to decline between FY20/21 and FY21/22. It is too early to quantify the decline. The increase in copper revenue based on the copper production timeline will not make up for the PGM earnings decline (unless PGM basket price makes a huge recovery which I can't see happening until next year).
shuvlin
Increasing their beneficial interest in the copper projects is non-essential. JLP could have continued developing the copper projects with the original arrangement.
gotreal
It would be better to know nothing then be wrong about something (refer back to your posts in August).
It is possible that JLP will do another capital raise tomorrow, later this year or within the 12 months, its anybody's guess. What is fact, is that there are still projects/prospects in the pipeline that do not have funding, i.e. Kabwe, Cyprus, Northern refinery and many more and then anything else that JLP has their eyes on. JLP has demonstrated that they are willing to dilute shareholders for essential and non-essential purposes. With the pullback in PGM prices and copper revenue not really kicking in for another 6-9 months, it is possible that JLP will choose to dilute shareholders once again. The recent raise and possibility of further dilution is justification for some to sell. But of course you can't see this because your myopic view of JLP.
Some will say that dilution is fine as long as it grows earnings. I agree to an extent but EPS is the more relevant metric and we will need to wait until early 2023 (unless PGM prices make a miraculous recovery) to see if EPS improves. Until then JLP will see a drop in earnings and bigger drop in EPS. It does make sense that some shareholders would rather reallocate their money elsewhere and then evaluate if they want to re-invest in JLP next year.