Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
seisnav: the results will be bad, this is obvious. it just disappointing that jlp don't have the courage to tell us the truth. i am ****ed off because i like the company, i just don't trust management.
If you compare the operations update released on 20-Jul-23 versus previous years you should notice the absence of the financials. JLP usually provides the financials in its operations update. Just another example of JLP hiding the bad news and only telling investors what they want you to hear.
Leon is full of it. It doesn't matter how bad JLP performs, according to Leon JLP are always on time, in budget and meet estimates/expectations. Those that follow JLP closely know what was expected in terms of PGM ounces and tons of copper. Leon is not even man enough to spend the time to address the failings, explain exactly what went wrong or advise the market in advance. Leon's strategy is always to brush another bad set of results under the carpet and focus on the future or what appears to be a mirage. Leon would make a great politician.
Investors now have another 6 weeks before they see another dismal set of interim results.
Let's see if the cheerleaders and or Leon try to put some lipstick on this RNS.
For those interested, the following is a list of average copper prices over the past year in USD and ZMW.
Month USD ZMW Equivalent
JAN-22 9,775 168,746
FEB-22 9,941 179,902
MAR-22 10,237 183,601
APR-22 10,183 177,327
MAY-22 9,362 160,137
JUN-22 9,033 153,687
JUL-22 7,529 123,649
AUG-22 7,960 127,917
SEP-22 7,734 120,805
OCT-22 7,621 121,326
NOV-22 8,029 132,864
DEC-22 8,367 147,329
JAN-23 8,616 157,242 * as at 12-Jan-23.
Dorfan
If you are going to title your post as a PGM basket price then provide basket prices, not individual components that suits your narrative. Here are the approximate 6-month average PGM basket prices over the past 4 years:
JUN-19 USD 1,106 ZAR 16,089
DEC-19 USD 1,384 ZAR 22,200
JUN-20 USD 1,864 ZAR 28,904
DEC-20 USD 2,217 ZAR 38,762
JUN-21 USD 3,614 ZAR 47,483
DEC-21 USD 2,654 ZAR 37,538
JUN-22 USD 2,763 ZAR 38,305
DEC-22 USD 2,379 ZAR 39,736
And if you want to talk PGM earnings then look at the half-year (calendar year) PGM earnings past and current:
JUN-19 GBP 4,065,000
DEC-19 GBP 8,129,000
JUN-20 GBP 12,537,000
DEC-20 GBP 26,387,000
JUN-21 GBP 36,456,525
DEC-21 GBP 13,064,000
JUN-22 GBP 13,918,000
DEC-22 GBP 24,200,000 * forecast
So the half year ending JUN-21 was the record, not today, not now and not this year. Also bear in mind from 2022, PGM earnings now conveniently include chrome revenue so beating the like-for-like JUN-21 6-month PGM earnings is years away if at all.
Feel free to refute any of the above.
Happydays...if you are expect record earnings then expect some disappointment. On a more positive note ZMK/ZMW has been steadily weakening since May 2022 so this should translate to a lower copper unit cost in USD. It will still not be enough for "record earnings".
JLP...Great to see platinum price rising but the PGM basket price is stagnant or falling depending on what period you are comparing it to.
The 5:50 minute mark demonstrates the interviewer's incompetency. The idiot thinks JLP has funded their expansion from "revenue and profit" and "no borrowing". Of course, Leon wouldn't be foolish enough to mention the countless equity raises. This is one of the reasons why I like investing in equities, there are plenty of idiots out there.
It is a pity that SeisNav puts the effort in and still omits key data and makes unrealistic assumptions. It makes the whole set of numbers meaningless. To make an estimate of $400M earnings for FY2025 demonstrates the naivety of the author. As for omissions, Leon indicated an approximate cost to produce cobalt, people like SeisNav are just not listening or just don't get it.
Summit
If you are looking for a dividend, JLP is not the right company for you. JLP needs to expand its PGM operations and wants to expand its copper operations which will require significant funding over the next 2 years. Beyond that, you can already hear Leon talk about further expansion, so it appears to be any surplus cash will just get re-invested (and pay down the debt that should fund the expansion) for the foreseeable future. I agree with expansion as long as it is done in a prudent manner. I don't think JLP will/should pay a dividend until it has enough free cash flow to continue to expand operations and afford a dividend, a prospect which is 4-5 years away.
Well that didn't take long for the stupid responses. @Dorfan, you are always so optimistic. Do you feel a little stupid after seeing today's results? We have had many discussions and you were willing to bet me a lot money/shares that EPS this year would be better than I was predicting...did you forget all that? Now you think GBP weakness is going to rescue JLP like some sort of superhero saving a damsel in distress. My figures do take ZAR weakness into consideration as my PGM estimates are based on ZAR basket price, not USD basket price. I also look at ZMW as we also operate in Zambia.
As for the other conspiracy theorists out there, I am not shorting, not trading JLP. I am just a LTH trying to tell people things aren't as rosy as some posters (or the company) make it out to be. Instead of getting thanks for being right, I just get grief from myopic posters....no surprise really. You can b*tch about my comments all you want but you can't find a post that I have been wrong about.
shuvlin, I deliberately left out cobalt. Nobody has any idea what those earnings will look like. Any additional cobalt earnings needs to be weighed against the possible decrease in commodity prices in the next 12 months due to global recession.
SeisNav
What is your maths behind a doubling of attributable earnings in the next FY? I dropped my estimate for FY23 to 1.2p
JLP produced 35,318 PGM oz in FY22. The targeted capacity is 44,000 oz so the estimated increase in earnings is about USD$10M (if PGM prices hold at today's levels). Whilst copper production and earnings are set to increase, we have already seen the FY23 estimate being reduced. JLP produced 2,604 tons of coppper in FY22. The target was 10,000 tons for FY23 but after today's announcement, I estimate it will be 8,000 tons. At an estimated earnings of USD$3K per copper ton, that is an additional 5400 tons by USD$3K = $USD16.2M . So combining copper and PGMs, there is an additional USD$26.2M in earnings equating to additional earnings of just GBP23M.
DRB83
You will not get an answer that question regarding the profit share split. The only way JLP will give you that information is when they use it as justification for the capital expansion at the Eastern limb (most likely with a capital raise attached).
As for your figure of $400 per oz, it is really hard to say. Anyway I am not looking into that topic as its a rabbit hole. Best to use past 12 month gap between PGM basket price and PGM revenue per oz and just hope the gap shrinks this FY.
SeisNav, feel free to keep scratching your head as to why your numbers don't up then or just keep your head buried in the sand. Instead of thanking me for pointing out what should be an obvious input into earnings estimates, I get accused of all things negative. Ah, its good to be back.
DRB83
As per usual with JLP, the share split is an Agatha Christie, full of mystery. As per the original RNS for the Eastern limb expansion:
"The PGM Supply Agreement offers a minority earnings participation to the Chrome Mine partner allowing them exposure to the PGM values which also enhances their earnings potential."
Minority means anything up to 49.9%.
DRB83
I think you are confusing the Northam JV at Eland with the JV for the Eastern limb tailings. The tonnes for the Eastern limb tailings are not small.
SeisNav
The possible reasons for your large discrepancy between estimated and reported earnings are:
- Profit share on Eastern limb tailings: I just posted about that.
- Maybe higher smelting costs.
- You can't use JLP's costs to estimate Windsor/Eland.
Don't expect much improved numbers unless the PGM basket price moves.
Yes, transport costs are split across all ounces so JLP is paying a lot to transport the Eastern limb tailings. Unless Rhodium prices improve, the Eastern limb tailings (combined with profit split) will continue to be a drag on PGM earnings per ounce.
DRB83
The information you provided is not the same as the attributable earnings to JLP. Look at the previous 6-monthly update and you will see in the PGM earnings table, columns for Project earnings and Attributable earnings.