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gotreal
Have you ever been right with regards to your posts on here? When you are categorically proven wrong, you don't have decency to apologize. Anyway, I have wasted enough keystrokes talking about your failings. Onto your post.
1) "Might": If you think JLP are going through the hassle of convening a general meeting to "maybe" issue shares, refer to the above insults, you earned them quick sma...oops can't say smart, it would be inappropriate. The placing is going to happen.
2) Share placing at a premium: That is laughable.
3) JLP is very desirable proposition: Yeah right, that is why the share price has stagnated for over a year.
4) Reason is justifiable: Refer back to my earlier post. If the deal is that great, then JLP should be able to use their imaginary debt financing.
So your simple mind might wander why a larger-than-average shareholder posts such negative comments. The reasons are:
- Maintain balance in this forum.
- The share price is unlikely to rise if the continual dilution continues and even if it does rise, its trajectory is lowered due to the larger number shares on issue. Why would any institution buy shares in the open market when they can just wait for the reliable JLP sale?
- Leon and Colin have repeatedly misled investors regarding equity dilution, failed to keep investors abreast of important aspects of the business, withheld information until it suited management to release the information. I could create a long list of varied and valid complaints but I have sufficient investing experience and grey hair that warrants my distrust.
Now that I am officially deep in this rant, I am going to go one step further and say that Leon should step down as CEO and remain as CTO. Colin's replacement should then run the business with goals such as:
- Increasing the share price in the short and more importantly long term.
- Implementing quarterly and consistent reporting.
- Improving the transparency and updating the market regarding all assets and operations.
- Establishing an adequate investor relation liaison.
So if JLP want my votes for raising more capital AGAIN!!!!!!!, its a big fat no.
gotreal
It doesn't matter if I hold 1 or 10 million shares. But just to reinforce the fact that you are constantly wrong in this forum, here are my holdings. https://ibb.co/MCn7qYw
It must suck to be you.
Dorfan
I will be voting a fat No. Whatever great opportunity JLP want to purse, it should be that great that it can financed with debt. JLP keep banging on about their balance sheet, low leverage, low/minimal debt, $50M loan facilities that never get used and in the end, just decide to dilute. If JLP want extra cash, they can either generate the cash or borrow it (at an appropriate cost). If they can't do either, then maybe they should focus on their current operations and prove their copper expansion is profitable.
Dorfan
I will take my pessimistic stance just to maintain equilibrium :)
For those thinking JLP was done with equity raises, today must be a disappointing day for you. What happened to JLP statements like "no more dilution"? What happened to statements like the ACAM conversion which clears historical debt so JLP can leverage their "clean" balance sheet.
Given JLP's track record, existing shareholders are about to get screwed. JLP, prove me wrong please!
Billyboy2
Please refer to my post on 09 Feb 2022 16:09.
SeisNav
The Eastern limb tailings will not exceed 16,500 tons per month so some of your assumptions aren't feasible. Anyway, my project earnings estimates are very close to yours at GBP 59m (vs GBP 71m for 30-Jun-2021).
NorthernShark
Yep, are you right, RNS says:
"At completion of the Transactions, Jubilee will hold a 100% interest across its integrated Southern Refining strategy which includes the Sable copper and cobalt refinery (14 000 tonnes per annum copper capacity) together with Project Roan (10 000 tonnes per annum copper concentrator). In addition, Jubilee increases its beneficial interest across its Northern Refining Strategy, with Project Elephant's TD52 portion to 80.75% (highest copper and cobalt concentration of all tailings within Project elephant) which is specifically targeted by the accelerated development of Jubilee's cobalt extraction process, Jubilee's beneficial interest at the Mufulira Project increasing to 97%."
As per Leon, the bulk of earnings lies in the refining rather than concentrating. Beyond that, I am going to give up trying to figure out what the earnings will be.
Charles432
JLP will not earning $5m earnings per month from copper until Q3 2022 and that is being optimistic. Feel free to check the copper production estimates published by the company and then add a month or two for the delay.
Whilst we are on the topic of copper earnings, I am trying to get my head around the copper revenue streams. My understanding is JLP will earn revenue at both the concentrating phase (majority earnings attributable to JLP) and refining phase (all earnings attributable to JLP). I don't suppose any has any info on how to solve that puzzle.
gotreal
You are an easy man/woman to please :)
Sumo
Conversion is typically with the lender, but not always. Anyway, it doesn't matter, it is clear that JLP would not have been afforded that right as they were determined on raising finance at whatever cost. My point still stands, calling it a success is laughable.
gotreal
Most of us understand how the ACAM convertible loan works. At the end of the day, equity was issued and it was issued at a 80% discount to average market price. Chew on it anyway you need to but that is the end result. My point is that calling this a success is sheer stupidity or incompetence from JLP. A success would have been repaying the loan with our cash reserve and avoiding the dilution and that didn't happen because JLP did not include that option. Let's hope JLP don't have more of these "success" stories in the making.
Dorfan
I hope you are right but my maths says otherwise. As for the copper earnings, it may not be profitable or as profitable until the ramp-up is completed. Leon estimates the cost per copper unit ton at USD$4,500. This will not be achieved on day 1 and may take several months before it is achieved. This is pretty standard so please be prepared for some disappointment with the initial copper earnings.
The RNS was bad news but it was expected so no surprises there. As NorthernShark, mentioned a slight delay in copper ramp up but that should also be expected for a project of this nature. I suppose the only good news was there wasn't any major unexpected bad news. I am glad that is out of the way now.
A few things to note
- Financial highlights were missing from today's RNS. This is consistent with JLP's attempts of trying to hide bad news.
- Conversion of the ACAM CLN was portrayed as a positive "is another reinforcement of the success of our strategy in Zambia". If JLP believe that issuing equity at a ~80% discount is some sort of success, they obviously don't care about diluting existing shareholders.
- The Windsor JV profit share percentage was again mentioned. It is funny how it was never published until recently (for confidentiality). Suddenly it is not confidential. You have to ask yourself why is that so. I have some ideas why but not going to share it here as I doubt anyone appreciates hearing potentially bad news.
- Another reinforcement of the Eastern limb expansion plan. It will be interesting to see how this is funded. I can only hope they are not preparing the confetti cannon.
To pacify the cheerleaders here, FY22/23 should be a major improvement for JLP. Let's hope JLP don't do anything stupid until then.
Dorfan
Sorry, but I have to pull you up on your post today. On 06-Feb-22 you wrote "am willing to bet many shares in Jubilee that earnings for the year ended 2022 will exceed year 2021." Do you still want to take that bet? I repeatedly warned of a drop in EPS this FY and it will happen. I assume you agree with me now.
NorthernShark
Just another clarification, the WH IE note is not reviewed by the company. If you read the disclaimer
"The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable"
If JLP were to provide information to WH IE they would need to provide it to everyone. Hence why I said that WH IE can make the same assumptions that you and I could make.
MikeSunday
If you think somebody with my knowledge about the company is not a shareholder, you rightfully earn the insults I am about to throw at you. As for your posts, all I hear is "blah blah blah", nothing concrete, no accurate estimates, no foundation to back up your posts. You are just another investor praying to get rich with dumb luck. Ask yourself, have any of your posts provided meaningful information to this forum. Before you answer that, please note that cheerleading is not information.
gotreal
First of all, you are welcome for clarifying the current status of the Zinc operation. My agenda is to provide balance here and point out any misinformation (I doubt NorthernShark did it deliberately). I have filtered BushyTail as he is beyond redemption.
You can believe what you want about the Zinc operation but it has been delayed multiple times and if they can't get it moving with high Zinc prices then I doubt it will ever happen.
Call me a naysayer if you want but my past posts have been correct. I think you may have an intestinal issue because you seem to be unable to digest bad news. You might also have a vocal issue because you seem unable to apologize for your posts prior to the massive equity raise last year.
Northern Shark
I am not a huge fan of those WH IE broker notes. Some good info in there but a lot of mistakes and assumptions that you and I could make. Anyway, that broker note was published 09-Dec-21. If you listen to the 29-Dec-21 company update https://youtu.be/5Wqg4SfdgjU?t=3917 you will hear Leon say it is delayed due to volatile vanadium prices. Smells like bullpooh to me. My view is that they can't achieve an efficient/economic Zinc extraction process, even with historically high Zinc prices.
Kabwe is looking like a lemon (don't confuse Kabwe with Sable) and was an expensive entry point into Zambia. So much for cleaning up the mess there, ESG credentials, blah blah blah. I wouldn't be surprised if the Zambian government pressures JLP to clean up Kabwe. This was hinted in Colin's annual shareholder address 2 years ago.
NorthernShark
Can you please direct me to this "latest comms"? My understanding is that Zinc is on hold.
BushyTailed
Yes, the ACAM deal was a huge mistake and JLP should have negotiated better terms.
As for the rest of your post and previous post, you are just spouting crap. As for comparing the recent share price performance with other companies, well that is just cherry picking and JLP can be deemed a better investment over a different time period.
If you have something negative to say about JLP, by all means say it, but put some effort into it and validate your claims.