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Death play it don’t matter how cheap Jdw are the kind of clientele they attract sadly have not got as much spare money as they used to and the kids of today are loading up at home before venturing out. Everything Tim has done he has done to save things but sadly the cost of living bills etc train strikes is all out of his hands people have cut back on how many days they are going out etc etc sadly this is going to fall a lot lower than it is now in the coming winter months
I agree the sector will need to navigate choppy waters Doug, but I believe they have the most robust business model. It would appear Timbo has cashed the interest rate hedge at the right time as interest rates appear to be normalising significantly lower then when it was cashed. An exciting time to be invested
bigpunt
If you check out Lloyds bank latest sector tracker report you'll see that pubs, hotels and restaurants – faced higher inflationary pressures than any of the other 13 UK sectors monitored, registering 86.1 on the tracker’s measure of cost inflation. I'm sure sales prices will rise but this doesn't mean people will be willing to pay those prices. I accept your point on overheads and economies of scale but I think the whole sector is in for a rough ride not just JDW.
Fro me there is some evidence that 420 is where money is coming into this market. If that continues to be the case then it's another higher low which is suggestive of a trend change. So we had a low of 388, then a higher low of 415ish, now it seems 418-420 is being 'defended', i.e. some buyers are coming at that level. There's no clear evidence that will hold for now, but it's worth remembering that Spoons' energy costs are pretty well hedged which is going to give them a significant advantage over some competitors. There's very 'light' evidence that a rising tl is forming (Oct 3rd, Dec 12, Dec 14). A close below that line (currently around 421/422 would encourag sellers and then you'd be looking at 415/416 (previous low) and then 388. Nothing is impossible and everything is risky. I'm looking for a buy signal at the moment with a view to increasing my long position, but I'm trading it rather than investing in it.
Doug, try and be a bit more rounded. If benefits, pensions, wages are all going up 10%, we could conceivably see sales prices rise accordingly. Not all of JDW's costs are increasing at such a rate so it could be positive. It will be harder for lower-volume establishments where the overhead is a higher % of sales
Billionaire Virgin boss Sir Richard said he would opt to invest in the USA over Britain.
"As far as new money's concerned, we would not necessarily invest new money in Britain at the moment. I'm afraid Brexit's costing Britain something like 2% GDP per year – when you compound that onto the other problems that Britain currently has it's devastating and it has resulted in Britain becoming the poorest country as far as growth is concerned - almost in the world. It really is sad to see."
£3 is quite pessimistic imv, the SP briefly touched 390p at the beginning of October, this could well be the low in current recession, especially when looking at other ftse stocks minima and you'll find most around late September, early October time. If the SP drifts further south in the coming months, 390p would be the level to watch.
With cancelled Xmas parties and the lack of trains over the next few weeks , which should be the busiest period for JDW , I think it's inevitable that new lows maybe ~350p will be visited. Add in wage and energy increases, probably ~£3 coming.
Will come good long term but I don’t think we have reached the bottom yet anything under £4 is a good buy
Well, I think it didn't hold 433 that day, but fell below 425 today, now up again. What next? Reasoned predictions please, no wild guesses; 1&all.
Well todays weakness seems to bring 425 into focus as a quite likely next stop on this drop. If 433 holds to close of play today I guess that might reduce the chance of further drops, but I fear it won't. I have a small long trade that is not working out for the moment and I'm going to hedge it with an equal and opposite short trade to lock in a maximum loss, but with a view to things improving here in the future.
Troaj they are up 10% last 6m. I expect more, as still cheapest in town: gradual the way, golden goose.
About time the prices went up …. Will still be cheap as chips.
Branches I've looked in at over the last couple of weeks have been surprisingly quiet, apart from one Sat pm when all tables were occupied (by drinkers).
@hoss2 says - "No increased trade".....?
Certainly increased many-fold here in Maidstone due to new-big-screens,
been there Curry nights & Fish+chips days with both JDWs packed with packs of
youngsters not seen before....
eg. Youngsters for me, anybody who looks under 60yrs, without a cap or scarf.
Great-grand-kids call me Grumpy....don't know why?....I blame their parents.
No increased trade from World Cup or christmas either I suppose … ok then.
Sadly not
Really, no uptick from World Cup?
Sadly still the worse yet to come for this group trade is still going down the pan and it will be summer before things pick up I would imagine
Showing good recovery from today's lows.
Finally back in the 500s hopefully keep heading in the right direction ! wouldn't like to be shorting this.
Below is my comment made in March 2020. I held off from buying since then. I have to say that with falling property prices and other headwind pressures.......these could have further to fall in 2023. But it may be worth buying a few before Christmas 2022......it maybe cheaper than drinking at home and paying those expensive heating bills!
"RE: This will crash if uk pubs close16 Mar '20
I think real ale lovers like myself will all be the losers if this splendid company goes under! For me it is not just about making money. So I sincerely hope that the more darker predictions do not come to pass! However, the shares have been vastly over priced for some time. Thank God I did not let my heart rule my head and buy at the top. I am very concerned by some of the comments on here about the company holding a lot of debt, but it doesn't look as if interest rates are going up any time soon. And as soon as the virus situation has resolved itself, this company will thrive. I may dip my toe in, should the shares move below £7"
Uncle D - do you go in the pubs? They are never empty - the issue is can the cheap prices be maintained with rising costs.
Was in a small town Spoons on Sat for lunch and it was pretty packed, as it always is TBH. Situated near a Travelodge so guaranteed to get a decent footfall as TL don't do food.
Not sure WC will be beneficial for Spoons. They are not sports venue so although the games will be on terrestrial TV not sure many will be inclined to watch it there. Also most Spoons have limited TVs.
TW saw that coming and energy fixed for 3 years so no increase + currently warmest yr on record and World cup starts in 10 days !!!recon the Christmas run in could reverse the last 5/6 weeks performance if England have a decent run