The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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drb- i had a look at your postings on this platform and have come to the conclusion that you are a shorter which is fair enough.
with the way you do your diagnosis there is no way you could be in stocks like angus or bidstack that just would'nt make sense would it ???
good luck to you but as we all know neither bulls or bears get it right all the time do they.
MH, I did include positives in my previous posts. £1.7bn sales is a positive. Covenants extension is a positive. £119m cash generation is a huge positive. It's just overall, things aren't looking great when you look at the wider picture.
JDW made £100m gross profit off £1.7bn sales. That's less than 6%. If everything stays the same then for JDW to generate an additional £30m gross profit and breakeven next year they would need an additional £500m sales. So to breakeven they need £2.2bn of sales which is £400m more than there previous all time best. They need this in a market where cost of sales are going up and customers disposable income is going down. It's hard to be positive. I'm interested to hear the other side of the coin from the long term bulls.
BJ, well the SP has been in decline for many months so it will take more than a few days recovery to confirm whether the market has turned. The SP is now back to where it was just a few weeks ago. Has anything fundamentally changed in the business to warrant a change of direction in the SP over the long term. I can't see it myself but time will tell.
Reaping the benefits of Brexit (not) - Rally should be short-lived
DRB83 If everything is against them why did the SP rise 15% yesterday on a spike.
Steve, far from it. First called it around the £10 mark. A poster called Woody (aka Survivor) brought JDW to my attention. I reviewed the balance sheet back then and said this was on a very slippery slope with the debt and cash balance. The biggest concern now is it's going to take a record breaking revenue year to even have chance of turning a profit. 3 loss making years on the spin. Liquidity covenants tightened from £75m to £100m. CBILS £100m due back in less than 12 months. Nothing against Spoons but everything seems against them at the moment.
DR. Your obviously short and do not like anything positive, my advice if you want it wrap up your position quickly. Maybe to late
MH, agree but it usually helps when the business has strong underlying fundamentals. Sales figure was great so appetite is still there but it's becoming much more expensive for JDW to keep the lights on. Liquidity is going to be tested in the next 12 months, which means the covenants will be tested too. That's not a great feeling to have as a lth here. The performance over the last 3 years is not sustainable and there's numerous headwinds to come over the next 3 years. Can JDW really start to generate a positive cash flow without dipping into the credit facility?
We are up 23% in a week, its heading up be patient the patient win shorters lose generally.
Cunning I lost 10k here averaged down on a falling knife... Dumped few weeks back at 506... Today's little rally doesn't fool me.
For investors today was a good one - but looking at director deals, I'm not sure why James Ullman sold all (small holding) of his shares at £4. Rather than market moves - this worries me more than anything else - currently my largest SIPP holding. I now have many more shares than a director - lol - clown (or i'm the clown)
we are all experts are we not?
do your research and make your bet.
sometimes instinct can over rule fundermentals .
drb- i think you got this one wrong, never underestimate a disruptor they see things we cannot.
Dnd I think you missed the boat on your big short should of started at 12 quid u muppet.
Mike DND short position or anyone else who shorts on these boards ain't gonna make a single bit of difference to any SP.
You carry on and short it then dnd.
This is the reason why the market is in such a f00ked state. No shares are allowed to run any longer.
Its a **** state of affairs.
time to short this
Nuri, a £20m positive FCF is positive to be fair considering the last 2.5 years.
Nuri, you were on cmcx results day yesterday talking **** and here you are today on spoons talking ****. The only investor that is thick is you thinking that your inane drivel has any influence on the SP or other posters.
I’d never think it was just one reason, but the reason this SP and many others are currently down so much is the invasion of Ukraine.
The price was in decline long before that. Ever since he sold his shares if you look at the graph.
jlovie Tim is pleased he sold a chunk before Putin invaded and wreaked the energy market.
The shorters must be worried !
The positive is the interest rate on £770 million of debt fixed at 1.24% to 2031. A mark to market valuation at current time of £189m . Shrewd move . They also have headroom to increase prices as competition is significantly dearer.
Clarkcp if you are still in profit you are doing well. The whole sector is in serious trouble but if anyone can pull through it will be JDW imo. I may be in a minority here lol.
Tim must be pleased he sold 4.4m shares at £11.50 last year, just after the placing.