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Institutional holders will be key to whether this gets the vote imo, weren't the saudis in knee deep with shares at one point? Ive not kept up with the ii's and ownership but us PI's wont get much say thats for sure vote or no vote, my heart says this should go for more and if this gets rebuffed quickly by major ii's theres a chance for another bid before the new deadline, it could also even get extended again. the first bid was just a hello im here, this second bid is getting warmer but i dont think will get the win, i do see DK getting his way though so hes being pushed harder to dig deeper imo.
think back to his buying price over the last couple of years sub £2 he was backing up the truck so if has to pay £4 a share for 70% remaining he still getting the company in the 3-£3.50 average bracket, he could easily double his money from there with the next 10 years looking like a strong bull market going forwards.
Still room for negotiations at that price £3.70 imo, ii's will be the ones calling the yes/no, a quick rebuff is what we want from here and let DK off and have another think.
I see the deal getting done at some point and price but what that end price will be is anyones guess now...
Newdealz
What surprises me is how low the bid is…surely there have been discussions with large shareholders already,and I would be very surprised if they had given the ok to £3.70.
I can only assume that the board have been sweat talked,and there hoping there approval will hold some sway.
If this is the case I would suggest this could be an error of judgement…
Or could it all be part of a billionaires plan…hope for £3.70 knowing in reality it’s going to cost north of £4.
Cat and mouse at its finest…
Maxima's, if trh board are minded to accept, who is it cat and mouse with,
If DK already owns 27.5% , looks like the board is in his pockets, maybe he's offered them jobs, can DK pick and choose with ii to talk to, maybe put pressure on a few ii's, then all ii will fall in line....
@maxi - low ball bid and now the chancer bid, i think 3 bites of the cherry are not out of the question here and i dont expect this to get the vote at 3.70, all parties do seem to agree on the take over its just the price. This is DK's chance to get the lot, i feel big changes will come in any case now take over or not and this might be his only realistic chance because the company could be worth a lot more in the near future and it would cost him even more going forward. Im sure he knows this and wouldnt be chucking his money into declining investment, automation is going to do a lot of people out of jobs in the next 10-20 years. £12 an hour on a moaning postie or 50p hour on a non-argumentative robot? ;-)
Sid
If DK already owns 27.5% , looks like the board is in his pockets, maybe he's offered them jobs, can DK pick and choose with ii to talk to, maybe put pressure on a few ii's, then all ii will fall in line....
You said it…but the board won’t make the ultimate decision….will they..
Shareholders will have been sounded out…they will have given there thoughts…
I will be surprised if there thoughts will be …hey..you can have the place for £3.70 a share…
More likely he’s been given a price that doesn’t sit right…
Being a billionaire your used to getting your own way…perhaps he’s said sod it..let’s see if your pulling my leg….heres £3.70.
£12 an hour on a moaning postie or 50p hour on a non-argumentative robot
Yep, it will not sink in with some quarters that letters are over. They used to be important and the people who handled them were pillars. Now they are not
Is it a simple majority he needs to buy the company
Sid
Is it a simple majority he needs to buy the company
You said it…simple…s
Which will be hard to achieve without those large shareholders on board.
Personally hope this gets kicked into the long grass…more money to come over the years…prefer a slow killing than one large wedge in one go …..the only happy bunny would be the tax man
God help the TAF posties
Fooooked with a takeover
Foooooked without a take over
@darbo - i watched a very interesting documentary just a while back on automation and how it is about to completely change the employment landscape by just 2030, an automation line and or robot are far cheaper to maintain at an hourly rate and no issues with sick leave, holiday, maternity leave etc so no more employment HR or need for unions etc, people think this is just talk and wont happen but its coming.
Newdealz
I completely agree,it seems to me all communication comes to us now through the ether..aka wi-fi . Shouldn't the CWU now become the DWU...the delivery workers union?
Newdealz , TMS
How about an R2D2 with a deliveroo rucksack scuttling around the the pavements of Britain?
At least least 75% approval of shareholders required to takeover https://legalvision.co.uk/business-sale-purchase/compulsory-acquisition-of-shares/
There are two ways to effect a takeover:
Scheme of Arrangement (“Scheme”). This is the normal method nowadays. For that Kretinsky has to get 75% of the vote. Crucially, this is 75% of those who DO vote and not 75% of the total potential overall shareholder voters. Kretinsky cannot vote his shares. So a relatively small number of shareholders can block him. A Scheme has the advantage that, if approved, all shareholders are bound to the takeover and delisting and their shares are bought out.
Contractual Offer. The traditional route. K needs to get 50% plus one vote (of ALL the potential voting shareholders, not just of those who do vote). He can vote his shares. Less attractive as, on top, still needs a 75% vote to delist and also needs to get to at least 90% to compulsorily buy out recalcitrant shareholders (“squeeze out”).
Takeover structure yet to be determined but a lot of moving pieces and, given the maths, certain institutional shareholders, even those with not especially big shareholdings, need to be won around. The share price reflects these uncertainties.
Well done Carrington and others on your good fortune with the IDS takeover by Kretinski! Looks like a lot are in line for 60% returns if they bought in at 225 or less. Wow.
You could do a lot worse than recycling your profits into an ITV position - and hoping to do the takeover double :)
More important than the institutions is the useless HMG, who have procrastinated for years over watering down the USO despite most of our Western cousins having done so without the world falling in. So this is one final attempt by the BoD to wring concessions from HMG so that they can show that IMG is worth more than 370p per share and so reject the bid. But is HMG capable of facing down the neanderthals in Parliament?
Having held these since privatisation I shall be reluctantly give them up. OK a nice little earner but that's only money. The regular updates and conversation here will be missed.
What won't be missed is the CWU & USO.
Just vote no. Tell your postal mate to buy Ids shares and vote no.
Red, a lot of hurdles for MrK to jump before he gets his way.
Reading the boards statement yesterday it looks more like a challenge to the government than anything else. It's obvious that they want the approval to go to 5 day letter delivery so they can turn round to Mr K and reject his offer.
The pressure on the government and opposition will ramp up. The public backlash of selling off to an overseas private owner will be immense and the IDS board knows this and are using it as a weapon to fend off the bid!
Just vote no. Tell your postal mates to buy Ids shares and vote no.
Thanks Hounddog10, after reading your comment, it's not a done deal....
It's just sad the board have thrown in the towel at such a low price, as if they can't be asked...it's up to the major institutional shareholders to put up a fight now for all shareholders..
Broch I read it a bit differently. IMO it sounds like the BOD are saying to the current government you have had 4 years to address the USO issue and failed to do so thus part of the reason we are in this current financial situation. But dont worry we (the BOD) will get agreements from DK that the brand will be protected. employees will be okay etc etc.
Would now not be the time for the public backlash when 2 offers have been made and the business are like minded to accept. The apathy shown by the general public in this country around local elections and Mayoral appointments with very low turnouts suggests to me that if they cant be xxxxx around local services/councils then the subject of who ultimately who owns IDS is not going to be a major issue for most. Yes you will have the usual groups voicing concerns but will any party pick it up as a potential vote winner/loser in the upcoming GE I am not so sure.
Just look at the general theme from the media this morning.This will slide through.Both political parties will make a few words seeming like they are actually bothered.If it was a problem they should of blocked the increase to above 25%,where is the logic to say we will let you above 25 but not 100.
Brock "Red, a lot of hurdles for MrK to jump before he gets his way"
Totally agree and my point was not that this is a "done deal" more should this go through etc.
I very much doubt it will go through in it's present form. Depends how badly DK wants IDS? We know he has deep pockets.
Personally I feel the Company should be owned by the great unwashed.
ONWARDS & UPWARDS!
@Hounddog, thanks for clarifying what kretinsky's options are and the necessary % of votes each of the options require to give him control. To me it appears that the scheme of arrangement is the way he will go. However, it could be quite a big ask to get a 75% yes vote from those who do vote.
If, as you say Kretensky's personal holding of 27.6% is disqualified from the process then the voting rights attached to shares eligible to vote becomes much more heavily weighted. i.e. 100% of the vote will be represented by 690 million shares. As an example, Redwheel have approximately 50 million shares, which is around 5% of the 950 million total ids shares. However, when it comes to a vote without kretensky's 260million shares Redwheel will have 50 million of 690 million shares, which would represent approx 7.2% of the vote. Redwheel I believe stated that GLS alone was worth 350p so may be against the proposal.
The result is by no means clear cut and there is certainly risk attached to sticking or twisting. The only certainty is that if you sell now you will know how much money you made. If you hold there is potential for either a big upside or possibly larger downside.
Things will be clearer at the end of this month when he makes a binding offer, because so far he hasn't put any money on the table.
If takeover fails, 2p dividend is one reason it could tank, though I very much doubt it would drop as low as 220. Results in a week would likely have biggest effect on where sp settled. Foreward looking statements should be interesting in a world of ifs and buts. Whatever happens Royal Mail has rarely been dull and often a great learning process.
I would vote no, with my relatively miniscule holding. Largely for emotional reasons as I am certainly one of the members of the public who do give a F*ck. Contrary to Mr Moneyshark's view that there will be no public backlash I think there absolutely will be and the Govt will be under pressure to at least review the deal should a firm offer appear.
Given the impending election I am certain Sunak will not wave this through. Selling off the 'Posties' to a Foreign Investor, (from Eastern Europe...) would not be a good look and a review would take it past the election and the next Labour Govt (likely) will not allow it.