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Prior to the deadliest pandemic in history (aka. a nasty flu, dangerous to vulnerable groups, but of little or no consequence to 98% of the population), the market cap. here was about £12.5 billion. Today it's about £9 billion. The debt (thanks to the lockdowns) may be higher, but profits have been increased, partly thanks to the cost-cutting during covid, and also to the rise in ticket prices. Then, of course, there is the volatile geo-political situation, which has an impact (obvs.).
Hence it is quite a tricky call ( if it wasn't, we would all be rich), but talk of £4/£5 here is utter madness (in the short term at least). I do think that £2.00 - £2.30 is realistic in the next 6 months or so, but given the global political volatility, £1.40 is also possible. Such is the joy of investing.
Please don't have a pop at me, I am a
long time investor here, and would be delighted to be proved wrong and see the price surge to £3, but I just can't see it.
Anyway, having just returned from 3 hours in the pub, I am just amazed that I can still construct a grammatically correct sentence.
Looking forward to seeing what next week brings.
See you soon.
Splendid first paragraph.
Bobbins2
Your bang on
This will do very very well if it manages to get to above £2 and slowly rise from there
If it finished 2024 at £220 that's a 20 percent rise from here and puts the market cap close to before the pandemic
As you say a market cap of £20 billion in the next few years is not gonna happen
@bobbins2 - Sometimes the best things are said after a view!! Seriously, I agree with your sentiment below, it should not be lost on people that under the guise of Covid, Willie Walsh took the opportunity to make some serious efficiencies to the business. Unfortunately, with the current geo political situation it will be a while before we saw to previous figures in terms of the SP. However, IAG is a serious money making machine, eventually the current wars should end and not withstanding any further new curve balls, we should see IAG really fly in terms of the SP. Continued debt reduction along with share consolidation and a future dividend announcement will then really drive the SP here when the big boys come! Until then, if we can get to the 200 mark this summer and have that as a base, I'm sure many on here would take that in the short term!!
As much as i agree with your sentiments, i honestly do not see war in Israel or Ukraine finishing any time soon.
Zelensky wants more involvement from eu , and Netanyahu has a licence to bomb at will.
as for un. their voice is useless at best.
as a businessman once told me. the war in Ukraine will end when the money runs out.
but life goes on. and one should enjoy it.
i for one do not expect any big gains from iag.. more likely to tick along between 180 and 190 for rest of the year.
good luck for the new trading week.
here in Russia life is pretty much normal. i am looking forward to going fishing this week.
when i was in a fishing tackle shop. a Russian man said to me welcome to Russia. i get that a lot.
really are friendly bunch of people
£2.30 is a very realistic price target in the next few months. If dividends are announced next year then around£2.80 but £6 is pushing it.
Dave - your posts about GT are simultaneously admirable, slightly worrying, and very funny - your desire for her seems to parallel my desire for KM. I wish us both well.
Tricky - same as it ever was. I have been to Russia about 5 times, and liked it a lot, and found the people fascinating. It's like any country, one needs to differentiate between the government/ruling class, and the regular folk. Much like the UK - the ruling class are clearly a bunch of ******* *******, entitled, corrupt ***** (those are my asterisks, just for the record), but once you get beyond that, you will find many thoroughly decent people. Hopefully that includes me (although my ex-girlfriend may disagree).
Hi Bobbins - I respectively disagree sir re IAG's max mcap to date - I make it at ~£14.5bn just before covid hit - 2.2BN shares in issue pre the 2.7bn rights issue in Sept 2020 (which was jolly painful for me but I took my entire share at the time) at a max share price of 6.64 (6th Jan 2020) - so about £5.5BN under Friday's closing price.
I sadly don't think we will see £14.6bn+ until dividends are restored and net debt is a couple of billion lower - although the company is post covid in a much stronger operating position (market doesn't seem to care) - with more focus and investment on tech/customer service than before and a significant change in operating procedures and staffing contracts - leading to stronger market leading margins - oh and a massive focus and investment in Avios - loyalty (anyone see the Sunday times article on this today?)
The Avios article today in the Sunday times might hopefully get some folks in the city thinking about the deliberate emphasis on diversified and lower capital additional revenue streams (now making £1m a day profit!) - if this was spun out separately and given a standard multiple for this type of business I agree with the ST article that Avios would be worth £billions alone! However, the company is rightly thinking longer term so yet again patience needed!
Saturday also had a positive Times article re IAG hiring 1700 additional staff to cope with summer demand - the company wouldn't be doing this if they were not confident re demand! IAG leadership is cautious in the extreme - something I think we can all agree on!!
So what does this all mean? Who the heck knows but.... analysts are largely in agreement around a SP of £2.50 on latest position (with the exception of Liberum at £4.50 who are nuts IMO!). I think pre divis we should get to north of £2.10 but to get closer to £3 the divis need to return to get income related funds re-invested - maybe this could happen at half year but I won't hold my breath. I'm holding stubbornly because after 3.5 years of being all in and seeing an insane paper loss when the shares went 91p I owe it to my sanity to make a decent return!
Tomorrow the price will either go up or down - in the end a company making nearly £5bn of free cash a year (wars and deadly viruses aside!!) has to be worth more than £9bn...
Thankyou bobbins, for your kind and positive response. have a good week. and i think you are a good man.
I have long had 2.40 -2.50 is the Covid recover value due to 2.7b issued stock in 2020, but normally companies share prices are ahead of company performance and over shoot, so £3 is quite possible in the next 12mths imho, but 2.40 is much more likely.
Great comment, everyone has to take the share issue into account before imaging sky-high pre-COVID-19 prices. 300p seems lofty but at the VERY least 220 which it was DURING the pandemic when there wasn't a plane in the sky. I'd take 233. As I'm in here at 133
SP was approximately £4.20 just before the covid crash. Circa 25% new shares added during the RI which diluted the price (all things being equal) to £3.15. However, debt consideration and lack of dividend means SP further weakened but offset by higher fares and stronger outlook so looking at fair value of £2.70.
@YorkshireBlues: When do you foresee that happening, end of 2024?
No idea Jlbmth, if I had to guess probably early next year. Earlier if a dividend is announced.
Looking good this afternoon. for once the US has boosted us rather than trashed us.
Taking into account some turbulence I'm going for a healthy 190 landing COB Friday.
My research indicates in Feb 2020 SP was c£6.30
The SP shown on Google at that time was .£4.20 and is ,I believe, the discounted price after dilution .I think you have therefore discounted the already adjusted price in your calculations.
YorkshireBlues,please see SP chart within this article for undiluted SP.
https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/03/21/75-down-from-2020-is-iags-bargain-basement-share-price-unmissable/
I am back..I flew on business and the plane was packed...once again. this is looking good, its ready for a breakout.GLA.
Myteethitch, I can confirm… you’re correct.
@myteethitch, if I remember the sp had fallen from £6+ to £4.30 in the space of a month from Feb to March 2020. There hadn't been a dilution during this time. That came later. The fair value price is taking in to account investor sentiment after covid, geo political tensions, energy prices etc. Would love to be proven wrong but unlikely to see £6+ for a while.
Totally in agreement. Prior to the Quarterly Results, I made a commentary that with the then anticipated good news of recovery and improvement, the SP would still trade +/- 5% of £ 1.83. The market is not perfect ( ! ) and the analysts and MMs out there would have already sussed out the imminent good news for the results , from looking at other operational public domain data ( eg load capacities, flight bookings etc). These people would have already factored in the rise in SP from the £ 1.50s to the £ 1.85 plus that we see now.
The thing that the market would have waited for and which in theory would be kept " super-secret" amongst the BoD and the C- suites in IAG , is the prospect of dividends resuming. The mere announcement of a dividend in the near future would send the SP on a spike, the so-called " Alpha" performance of this stock. The driver that would make the SP go above £ 1.85, significantly. But then , as I said earlier , the top end of the recent analysts' predictions for the IAG SP range, would still be about £ 2.20, even with a dividend resumption.
Ha never change Sundz...
Oh no.......S*****na is back to sc*@w us all over with more Donald Trump like statements.
Hi YB
I’m basing my expectations over next 3 years on a return to a peak price , for however long that peak may be,of £4.I am assuming that during that time the IT will be sorted,a decent standard of of in cabin service returns that appeals to what in old language would be described as “normal” customers and WW3 is avoided. I don’t think that’s too much to ask for.