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I suspect some of the problem here is the volume of posts by one individual , I personally just scan read many of the messages here as I have seen the same things posted over and over again, some of the posts here seem to have been written by a schoolboy /or schoolgirl , they may even be right in their assumptions , but its a bit boring reading the same arguments back and forth , just my opinion
Trouble is lots of people ramping like billy o on this board (and many others i.e. boo) because they have a vested interest, and because of that vested interest they are always positive and just wont have a word said the other way.
The result is they try to close down any contrary opinions by any means possible i.e. "dont post at the weekend etc".
In an investement situation that is just nonsense and you should always be open to having your position objectively challenged and view the opposite viewpoint without getting childish and petty.
Only some here just cant see that and ramp away just trying to close other views down, which often ends up costing other people money when all they can read is the one side of the story.
People like that need challenging
its a two way street , some of the posters are just pushing back on the opposing view, the arguments just go round and round , we will see in a few days whose right and whose wrong
..the problem is that the deramp argument is constructed and weaponised.. with an extreme coordinated approach it is only natural that there is going to be an opposing argument…
…to many it does seem like there is an agenda here…
exactly the same for the ramp argument Cool.
thing is nothing said on here makes the blindest bit of difference either way
Daytrader , l disagree, there aren’t consecutive posts demonstrating a constructed argument from both sides..
As far as I can see, there is a narrative that is trying to be controlled here and it is only reasonable not to accept it…
Nobody knows exactly apart from finance team what is going on because they have all the data. We all just oppose each other based on our limited understanding with knowing some of the parameters involved in an equation. Sometimes we may be lucky to predict rightly and other time are completely wrong. If everybody knows or able to analyse correctly, then the market won’t function. Somebody losses and somebody wins and that is always the case and will be.Anyway we soon find out next week!
The point is that you need to base your investment on available news. Every day, there is new news added to the equation. Those calling out 'red flag' are generally focussed on a couple of notes produced by brokers in august -early September. There's been a lot happening since then - US markets open, ending of amber lists, clear covid strategy based on vaccines and anti-virals. It's your own call of course on whether you absorb new news or you ignore it. But I'd suggest it's pretty clear which side of the fence is seeking to mislead. Sightwatcher, ultimately, i right. That no one knows for sure how all the news will be absored. Will it translate to a material change in financial strategy or not? Of course, it's impossible to say. But you can make a calculated guess based on the events in the last few weeks.
Good to see we're back in the 160's. No scary news today esp. ingflation. Friday is a toughie, but more folks could feel more comfortable holding over the weekend. Maybe some folks also have been looking to get into the 160's until they start buying again.
164 and its Lambrini and Fray Bentos tomorrow evening. Romantic meal for one at the Nearly There Arms (less stress and more food and t.v.). Nighty Night
"Those calling out 'red flag' are generally focussed on a couple of notes produced by brokers in august -early September. There's been a lot happening since then"
The notes are from early September, and then a month later, mid October. Whilst events have happened, there has been no revision of the broker narratives, and the one from just a couple of weeks ago implies there is no change in the broker positions. They don't see the events since their notes equating to a change in the finances. Just having the opening date for the US doesn't equate to cash in the bank.
Would have thought having the opening date for the US does equate to having cash in the bank if the tickets are selling out anywhere near as fast as Teddy100's post from earlier suggests. Such advanced ticket sales won't help the bottom line until the planes actually fly but they should have an immediate impact on the cash position.
Hexam - you're right of course. The other point worth noting is that those that quote out of date broker notes seem to:(a) have a fundamental lack of understanding that broker notes are a 'snapshot in time', (b) fail to understand that brokers simply don't have the profit motive to issue a new note on every piece of news (c) quite possibly understand these two things but are simply acting unethically to deliberately mislead others in the hope to somehow get a few more quid. The latter reasoning is perhaps the worst of all, and smacks of a desperate third world english speaker calling from a call centre somewhere far away to cheat a pensioner out of savings. We're all reasonably well off on this board (why would we have spare money to 'invest' if we weren't) so don't need to do that. It really is the lowest of low behaviour if that is what they're up to, and well, pretty sad that they're like that. Not sure how they can live with themselves.
You're now very desperate Taky. Inventing a pretty draconian caricature to try and dupe people into ignoring what was said by professional people. Out of date? How? What is the expiry limit on the statements form brokers?
There is no expiry date. Whilst not every comment will be directly amended, significant comments such as declaring a company needs to do a RI in order to survive are not left hanging in the air with no updates latter on. It is disingenuous to suggest otherwise.
As far as the rest of the garbage you posted, people will see that for what it is.
Professional people….
Does anyone have a full list of broker recommendations (buy / hold / sell) and their target price? Would be interesting to see what 20+ brokers say.
I generally ignore the sp forecasts as they are quite different, same with their buy/hold recommendations. The narratives are far more interesting but can be varied too.
When three at once say the same thing which has significant implications - and then a fourth also makes same reference a month latter, I take note.
There probably will be a rights issue. But it isn’t the end of the world. Tesla went up after. KLM announced today same and up 4-5%. Share price will still go up because turnover is going be rising sharply and all travel restrictions disappear soon. KLM:
PARIS, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Air France-KLM returned to core profits in the late summer, beating the Franco-Dutch airline group's own expectations as passenger numbers almost doubled thanks to easing coronavirus travel curbs.
Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) reached 796 million euros ($930.13 million) in July to September, it said on Friday, up from a loss of 442 million euros in the same period of 2020.
The number of passengers booking flights over the three months close to doubled year-on-year to 16.9 million.
"We had guided for a positive EBITDA, but 800 million euros exceeded our expectations," finance chief Steven Zaat told journalists in a call.
Air France-KLM predicted that its EBITDA would land positive for the final quarter and "slightly" positive over the whole of 2021.
The group said it had seen a rapid pickup in bookings for
November and the Christmas holidays, after the United States announced in September it would reopen its borders to fully vaccinated Europeans. ...
Autumn reopenings in Canada and Singapore further paved the way for recovery, said Zaat, though long-haul business remained hampered by restrictions in Australia, China and Japan.
The group also whittled down its net debt to 8.1 billion euros by the end of September, down 2.9 billion euros from the end of 2020.
Air France-KLM last year received a total of 10.4 billion euros in loans backed by France and the Netherlands, and has for months been discussing a recapitalisation plan to lighten the resulting debt load.
It said it had agreed to pay back 500 million euros of a state-backed loan within the coming weeks, and the remaining 3.5 billion euros in three instalments between 2023 and 2025.
The group said it was considering another rights issue under good market conditions, after a capital hike earlier in the year saw the French government more than double its stake to just under 30%
Wobbles, l found this the other day...
there is a new broker report added yesterday:
28-Oct-21 Liberum Capital Buy 162.10p 215.00p 215.00p Reiteration
https://www.sharecast.com/equity/International_Consolidated_Airlines_Group_SA_CDI/broker-views
"The group said it was considering another rights issue"
Not quite the reaction you claim for the sp for Air France/KLM. There is an up tick on better than expected results. A RI is latter. On that RNS it is a perfect smash and grab opportunity on the spike and then out ahead of any dilution. When there might be dilution is the critical issue.
This may be a very important one to follow. IAG may just do something similar. Release some better than expected results on one day, sp spikes, next day/week a RI. I am not going to gamble on the two being on separate days as with Air France/KLM. I won't miss out on anything as I won't be holding and it is just far too risky for me to take such a gamble. I think the debt pile for IAG is much more serious and will require direct action sooner rather than latter.
Wobbles, this one is good too, a lot of information here, look under the Price Target tab:
https://research-centre.barclays.co.uk/shares/international-consolidated-airlines-group-sa-cdi/broker-views/
None of the brokers are "declaring a company needs to do a RI in order to survive" when referring to IAG. Indeed the view from the latest (and most relevant as it is after the announcement of US opening) is:
'Berenberg said IAG's shares have benefited from positive sentiment over the past month as governments continue to ease restrictions and near-term equity dilution risk dissipates. Despite this, booking data is yet to confirm a strong recovery in the all-important corporate segment, while we think equity may still need to be raised next year.'
So they are worried (not surprisingly) about the ongoing debt position, not any short term cash issue, and are clear that a RI 'may be required' some time next year which is somewhat different to declaring it is needed for survival now.
Whether they will need to do a RI or not depends on how quickly than can reduce losses and return to profit and Berenberg have rightly highlighted the corporate sector as key to this. Time will tell of course and the Q3 results plus any update on booking trends will be helpful in assessing whether the risk of a future RI is increasing or receding.
I tried to buy flights from Heathrow > Amsterdam on BA and it was pretty much sold out. So I flew with KLM (yesterday) as they had more availability and the plane was full.
Willl be interesting especially as USA opening sooner than forecast.
Photo of flight yesterday to show I’m not ramping, you can tap to preview:
https://we.tl/t-tMjv8hm1Xx
"None of the brokers are "declaring a company needs to do a RI in order to survive" when referring to IAG."
Thanks for pointing out my exuberant interpretation summarising the 4 notes. How about some of the same for the dilution deniers to ensure a fair balanced view? mmmmm this is why it is necessary to answer each denial or misdirection.
Happy too but can't remember anyone saying outright that their definitely won't be one in the future. Plenty have quoted the CEO as saying he is not considering one at the moment which is perfectly true.