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Wonder if we will see news tomorrow.
Lots of trades tonight on the Canada stock market .
12.2 to sell 12.50 to buy we seem to be out of sequence for a change.
Just shows when you get new investors on board with a good dividend the price climbs.
I due to having the funds have been able to buy in the 8s and 9s and have broken even .
My dividends are invested back into the company since my first investment at 18p.
I see this share gradually going up over this year with 2025 being an exceptional year .
But I still feel we will be taken out in the 18p mark due to the assets we hold.
Acquisition next their are some good pickings out there at cheap prices
Both of you Chill .
You both have points I agree on
The price will be going one way up.
Canada is leading the way up 5% at 12.5 to buy .
News very soon .
“Regarding SHG, I'm not sure what your point is exactly? Mgt were universally considered to be fantastic”
This is exactly my point – Management was great until you and a couple of numpties cried foul – it does not mean they were great or they are crooks – merely your opinion and an example of you changing with the wind!
“Tony, if you're so clever why is the only reasonable return you've made in recent history been on a speccy?”
Any reasonable person here (and that excludes you) – I’m sure would question how you know what returns I’ve made in recent history and I’m not crowing about PANR – you asked me and Stas20 about why we were in PANR and 88E and I told you.
I also object to you misquoting me and spreading misinformation – I’ll give you an example which coincidently shows how little you know about Oil and Gas valuations
“you've also talked about financial metrics being the only true way to compare peers. but then you use reserves to try and make some point. try being more consistent tony.”
First off NPV10 values – i.e. reserves values are financial metrics – what the hell are you talking about ?? I’ve also never said that “financial metrics are the only true way to compare peers” – these are your words and by this I assume you are talking about one of the cash flow metrics – this is blatantly incorrect. If you go onto the internet – you will see that there are 5 or 6 commonly used metrics. Historically NPV values have been one of the most important which is kind of intuitive i.e. the total value of the oil/reserves you have to sell. What I think I said and a nuance you have apparently failed to grasp is that in recent years these cash flow metrics have assumed more importance (Imo and to analysts such as Nuttall) due to doubt over the value of long dated reserves i.e. potentially stranded assets. The narrative has changed slightly in the last year but regardless of whether we are talking this year or 2 years ago – reserves have always been important. There are examples of this in UK onshore where some companies have traded at not much more than cash on hand – why is this – well they have relatively few wells with high decline rates, little reserves and doubts about whether they can maintain cash flow beyond the next year or two – that’s the value of reserves – read up on it !
I think I’ve also consistently said that there are multiple factors you need to blend together to come up with a valuation.
Regarding SHG, I'm not sure what your point is exactly? Mgt were universally considered to be fantastic until they shafted shareholders with one of the dodgiest insider buy-outs AIM has seen in recent years. I don't think any PI thought this would happen, and I think you'll find just about every PI invested felt the same way about how they went about things. So what point are you trying to make on this? That I should have been calling them crooks before they had done some of the shadiest things in recent AIM history on a £100m highly profitable company? As for emotional comments, that's a bit rich coming from someone with a penchant for digging around in people's profiles to try and find something and then twisting it in some ret@rded manner. You've done it to a number of posters on here and trying again on SHG now.
But tell me Tony, if you're so clever why is the only reasonable return you've made in recent history been on a speccy? Well done on PANR btw. Doesn't quite make up for talking down posters here and watching your i3e profits evaporate the past year. Perhaps if you had listened to other posters pov you may have been able to get out and come back with more money.
As for my 'bit of value', just so you're clear I made on SHG the same % return as you're proudly crowing about now on PANR. And that's after being fleeced. Doubt the £££ would be the same though eh.
"Apparently C$232,649M were to be spent this year according to the 2022 Reserves Report...but just C$36,630M according to the 2023 Reserves Report. DYOC."
Thanks for doing the work of comparing '22 and '23 reserve reports JoeSoap. Kicking the can down the road has been the real business model of this company. Don't know why they keep boasting about their "total return" model. They stopped growing in 2023. No wonder investors feel they are treading water here.
GGG,
I no longer rate your input and haven’t for some time - so any comments from you certainly don’t inflate my ego.
Your problem is you talk off the top of you head. Very rarely provide any back up or reference for what you post and you’re too emotional - no perspective or context.
As an example - SHANTA GOLD - I recall you saying how great Management were and highlighting on this BB how much better they were than I3E - not a couple of weeks later when a cash offer did not meet your requirements - the Shanta BOD were all crooks.
You’ve thrown similar tantrums here when I3E’s actions have not met with what you think they should be doing - there’s a reason this is not the case - you need to figure it out.
Congrats on finding a bit of value in SHG by the way and the last question I’m going to answer from you - why PANR - up nearly 25% today and nearly 50% since I bought !
i ask you tony because it makes you feel good. your ego gets a real boost by showcasing your spreadsheets. sadly though your ego means you'll throw tantrums if people don't agree with your point of view.
as for the dividend, when it was increased it helped increase the sp, and when it was cut it destroyed the sp. that's all you need to know tony - that a dividend increase will have a +ve impact on the sp and vice versa. it matters not whether mgt went too far, it only matters what the dividend yield here does for the sp. as for increasing the dividend now, of course you wouldn't do it until aeco improves. it's why i said they should stick excess cash into oil weighted production and not ****ty little buybacks. another stock i'm in, ptal, has been doing ****ty little buybacks. guess what, it's had no impact on the sp. see, anyone can come up with examples that suit their pov.
as for the investment banks covering stocks, you've in the past been supportive of mgt saying they're going to push the pr in canada. and now you're saying it won't do anything? and you've mentioned in the past that being listed here with little canadian ownership is a barrier to us being valued closer to peers. and now you're making arguments about it making no difference and a boe being the same everywhere? you've also talked about financial metrics being the only true way to compare peers. but then you use reserves to try and make some point. try being more consistent tony.
here's my pov, which has been consistent. more canadian ownership and coverage will have a +ve impact on the sp. canadian coverage is dog****. but, operationally the company is excellent. a barrel of oil or therm of gas isn't the same everywhere. financial metrics are the best starting point to compare value across a basket of canadian o&g companies. small bbs are a complete waste of time and money. and i3e should look to boost oil weighted production with spare cash. and should we find ourselves in a +$3 gas and +$90 oil environment they should increase dividend payments (or do a special) to keep an 8% annual yield.
best stick to the spreadsheets tony - its where you add value.
Time to grab more cheap ones over the next few days; initial surge is running out of steam.
Yesterday there was a good exchange of views. Perhaps the most profound comment though was Tony's 'Peer translates to “of equal standing” – BOEPD is misleading as you can see that Oil weighted stocks have significantly higher revenues than their Gas weighted counter parts.'
But it is more than that and is where the comparisons cited fail as i3E has no peer. I do not know of another London listed O&G stock with NS acreage and Canadian production with a secondary listing on TSX. Period.
All the Canadian generated income has to first fund London and the NS team and Licences, before considering what to do with the 'FCF'.
However, it is important to remember that the Canadian venture was only undertaken to meet the obligations of the revised loan note terms, and that the fund raise that came with it had a Dividend Policy: 'to begin paying a dividend of between 20 per cent. and 30 per cent. of free cash flow annually, progressively increasing this to 40 per cent. asi3's Canadian business expand'. That Loan note provider is still the largest stockholder and will clearly be afforded the same access to the BOD that Eric enjoys with the BODs of companies with his much smaller percentage holdings to express his preferential views and which may or may not be aligned with PIs.
With the NS still in abeyance, the progress on the Canadian assets was not only derailed by the Trafigura amortising loan and covenants (in conjunction with realised lower commodity prices) but also resulted in a halving of dividend.
Now, free from those shackles with the RBL, the long awaited 2024 Capex plan can be delivered. But there will still be some wondering why an appropriate plan could not be announced last year and updated as things changed. Q1 was put on ice.
Apparently C$232,649M were to be spent this year according to the 2022 Reserves Report...but just C$36,630M according to the 2023 Reserves Report. DYOC.
jimo
joe
I know you struggle to connect the dots - but pumping up the dividend to an unsustainable level led directly to the dividend cut which crashed the SP - that's indisputable and you were at the forefront of calling for an increase. This time round take a look at AECO and ask yourself whether now is the right time to be increasing the dividend
I acknowledged that IBB backed up his posts and tipped my hat - so I did clock that Forrest -Its something that you never do - both acknowledging when you are wrong or providing any kind of back-up for what you say.
As far as anylyst coverage - I think I provided sufficient data to suggest that hiring 10 investment banks in Canada appears not to have done much good for some of i3e's peers so is not the magic bullet like you and some others think.
Finally - stop asking me to run numbers for you or give my views on random stocks you come across - something novel for you - how about running a few numbers youself !
Tony, the dividend yield needs to be higher due to i3e's track record and being smaller. Worth reminding yourself that the 'smaller' angle is something you like to raise wrt why we're undervalued against a basket of Canadian O&G companies. This is something that I agree with to an extent, but doesn't explain everything. So yes, imo we need to keep our dividend substantially above what any major is paying. This is of course my opinion, and not something I'm peddling as fact. You should take note of peddling opinion as fact Tony - it's something you do quite regularly in your steadfast defence of all things i3e.
As for the dividend increase, I seem to recall the share price went up after they did it. I also recall how much the sp dropped when they cut it. So tell me Sherlock, will increasing the dividend here have a +ve or -ve impact on the sp?
And in case you hadn't clocked it yet - you got owned by IBB just recently for calling his views 'unsubstantiated'. Maybe take a step back from defending i3e all the time and come back with some views on what mgt could do better. You can then whisper those ideas in Majid's ear during your next session.
"...or incrementally increasing the dividend payment." - have you forgotten already what happened when i3e previously jacked up the dividend as you had suggested!
"I think they should look to maintain a yield of at least 8% if they wish to remain competitive in the o&g space."
Unsubstantiated rubbish. i3e's dividend is already super competitive - It would also be super competitive if the yield was to drop a percent or two. I’m going to do something again which you very rarely do and that’s provide back-up for my comments.
Please review the following and remind yourself what a competetive dividend looks like!
https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/1123/Global-oil-gas-report-final-for-connect.pdf
Thanks for letting Majid know Tony. Remember to cup his b@lls while you're telling him.
Take a look at the first link below from September - Gear energy announcing a strategic review with the aim of unlocking shareholder value - does it sound similar (clue - i3e). Second link provides the conclusion.
The review was led by Peters & Co who our Canadian friends reliably tell us are the experts in the Canadian Oil and Gas apace.
I'll let Majid know that GGG's 4m shares are available for 12p
https://f8d829.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/September-2023-SRP.pdf
https://f8d829.p3cdn1.secureserver.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/February-2024-SRP-Conclusion-Feb-6-2024.pdf
let's see bottomsup :) i have a feeling that we'll drop back to the low 11's post ex-div. if so i'll start building my stake again. if not i've got 4m shares and a few other irons in the fire. not going to add in the 12's until i see a bit more detail on what they're intending to do this year. if they're doing a ****ty little share buyback then i can assure you they'll be buying my shares. waste of cash that i'd rather see put into production or incrementally increasing the dividend payment. i think they should look to maintain a yield of at least 8% if they wish to remain competitive in the o&g space.
and they definitely need to up their game in generating canadian pr and company ownership. as always the best result would be an asset or company sale imo. reckon 17-18p would be a good result for both parties in today's environment. providing the buyer has a decent amount of cash they'll have a significant amount of reserves to exploit, and the nth sea adventure if it comes to anything. either way nice to see the 12's again. gla
UK holders call the shots – get used to it!
😊🤣😂
lol agree.
GGG
Looks as if you will be buying in the high 12s soon.
Onwards and now in profit upwards
Tony, why use PDP rather than financial metrics? Reserves are one (and not the best) way to analyse across companies - this is something we've agreed on in the past. EV:EBITDA imo is the best metric. How do we stack up against the competition on these metrics?
Also, what do you think of DELT? Take a look as I think this is a f@cking good speccy over the next 6-12 months. Happy to pick up on the other board.
"'m starting to think the low valuation is primarily the oil to gas ratio. Hopefully this is rectified in the 2024 capex programme."
The company has advised its reserve auditor it will spend between $36M-$43M in capex in 2024. That won't move the needle much. Looks like they will go "balls to the walls" in 2025, when they hope AECO will average $4 or so.
https://x.com/DerAchsenZeit/status/1776697198866280643
I'm starting to think the low valuation is primarily the oil to gas ratio. Hopefully this is rectified in the 2024 capex programme. We'll probably look back in a year or two and think i3e came out of the gas slump not too badly. It's been a dire environment.
Personally I dont care whether Canadian Ownership is 10%, 20% or 2% - i'm interested in the share price and the real drivers of price. Generally its a plus to have a wider investment base but there's nothing to say that increasing Canadian ownership will increase the share price.
I've already alluded to the fact that I think that this is not always the case and provide data below to support my argument. The multiples of PDP that a Compant trades at is directly related to the number of buyers you have for the stock. I've already pointed to several Canadian peers that trade on Inferior PDP multiples despite having 10 investment banks following them.
Tony, I think the point IBB is trying to make is the 10% Canadian ownership is linked to the lack of coverage we're getting from the majority of leading Canadian banks and funds in the O&G sector. You've made the point previously that our under-valuation versus peers is probably related to our low Canadian ownership, which is something I agree as a probable reason. So getting more coverage surely has to help, especially when coming from such a low base of local investor awareness. The probability of investors putting money into i3e is zero if they haven't heard of us. And doing f'all to drive awareness is simply going to keep that probability at / near zero in Canada, alongside a low valuation multiple.
We've seen what PR coverage here can do to the sp. They should be focusing on doing this in Canada. I believe there's another couple of pennies in value that can be squeezed solely from doing this, alongside the excellent job they're doing from an ops standpoint. Either way things are looking much better now. They need to jump on this momentum and give us a proper re-rate. GLA
IBB_Invest,
I’ve added 2023 revenues to the list of Companies you provided. I have the following comments:
1) Peer translates to “of equal standing” – BOEPD is misleading as you can see that Oil weighted stocks have significantly higher revenues than their Gas weighted counter parts. I would argue that Saturn, Surge and Cardinal with significantly higher revenues are not peers. I3e sits at 6th on the list based on revenues.
2) At the bottom of the list, I have included the PDP ratios that came from the excellent charts provided by @RockCreekFreak. You can see that Yangarra & Saturn Oil trade on a significantly lower multiple than i3e, Bonterra at the same multiple and Birchcliff only slightly above. So, despite these Companies throwing money at Investment Banks left right and centre – it does not appear that it’s done a lot for their rating – at least on this metric
3) Looking at other metrics – unfortunately Shubham Garg has not updated his cash flow multiples in over a year and Eric Nuttall only provides the numbers for a handful of Companies, however, looking at the numbers I have – Surge is down in the dumps with i3e, Tamarrack Valley and Vermillion which are not on your list also trade at low Cash Flow multiples and all these Companies have a large number of Analysts following.
4) Journey Energy appears to have only 1 analyst covering it – similar to i3e.
5) So given the above – it begs the question why i3e would throw a lot of money at Canadian Investment Banks to follow them when only 10% of the shares are held by Canadians. Remember were comparing against Canadian Companies where most if not all the holders are Canadian.
So, in conclusion – spending a lot of money on Investment Bank Coverage in Canada is not the magic bullet some think. Don’t get me wrong – it cannot do any harm to increase coverage as long as it's cost effective– but you only represent 10% of holders – UK holders call the shots – get used to it!
Crew energy (CR) 32,200 Rev CAD 327M
Saturn Oil (Soil) 26,890 Rev CAD 693M
Pinecliff Energy (PNE) 26,000 CAD 188M
Surge Energy (SGY) 24,438 CAD 670M
Cardinal Energy (CJ) 22,500 CAD 589M
Bonterra Energy (BNE) 14,204 CAD 319M
Journey Energy (JOY) 12,400 CAD 225M
Yangarra (YGR) 12,000 CAD 166M
Inplay Oil (IPO) 9,500 CAD 179M
Gear Energy (GXE) 6,000 CAD 148M
I3 Energy (i3e) 21,000 CAD 282M
YDR 0.3, SOIL 0.4, BNE 0.6 i3e 0.6, BIR 0.7 JOY 0.8
Good post IBB_Invest and hats off to you for spending the time to do the research and provide some back up for the points you were making. Most dont do it and parrot what others are saying.
"It is not up to generalist investors like me to convince management to do their job and market the company via investment bank and fund analyst coverage. As a CEO and President, they should know that this is an important part of their job......"
I have some more detailed comments on your post which I will put up later. But a couple of general comments on the above:
1) I agree with Stas20 - it maybe no your job, but its your investment - I would have thought it much more constructive to email your comments to i3e than to spend your time moaning on here.
2) "As a CEO and President, they should know that this is an important part of their job......" I'm sure he does and had you emailed him - you would have a better understanding of what he does and why.
I agree with you Sturm. I sent an article to i3e from Goehring & Rozencwajg which argued the case that mathematically, buybacks were more accretive to NAV than drilling new wells in the current low valuation environment. I.e. Companies should be prioritizing buyback rather than focusing on growth. Eric Nuttal obviously agrees because he advocates something very similar.
I3e disagrees and thinks that cash is better spent on growth and that after studying the situation small buybacks don’t have a significant impact on SP. I have a couple of comments on this:
1) I also agree that a focus on growth is probably more prudent than a large buyback
2) I’m not sure I agree with the conclusions from i3e’s study on small buy backs. First of all, by its very nature, a “small” buyback in theory should only have a “small” impact on SP. To measure this is difficult because there are a whole host of other factors that affect SP that are in play concurrently not least the POO. Also, its not like pushing a button where you get an immediate reaction. Buybacks indisputably increase the NAV per share and over time shares tend to more toward a multiple of this. I rate i3e Management highly but in the analysis of this kind of data, I would go with Goehring & Rozencwajg. I think a small buyback is a no lose proposition.
Interestingly a Company that was mentioned here earlier in the thread (Gear Energy) announced the results of its strategic review in February. The purpose of the review was to try to do something about its chronic undervaluation. They Contracted this super-duper Investment Bank – Peters & Co that our Canadian friends keep going on about to lead the review with all option on the table including but not limited to a sale of assets or even the whole company – sound familiar?
Conclusion: Conduct a Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) – aka stock buyback !!!! I could have told them that without them having to pay all those fancy banking fees !!!
Interesting as well that despite have a large number of Investment Banks following them - they are still significantly undervalue like i3e.
Couldn't agree more IBB. It's something that needs continued focus as they're managing pretty much everything else quite well.
Not a fan of BBs. Waste of money imo and I'd rather have it in my pocket for sure, than expecting the sp to re-rate upwards. Only time I see that happen is when the BBs are substantial, and even then it has f'all impact on the sp.
Quick question about the trans mountain gas pipeline, how confident are posters here on the re-rate upwards of Canadian gas prices in 2025? And how much of this is driven by LNG exports, for instance how much Canadian production is expected to head to other markets through LNG Canada and the US facilities?
Looks like I'm going to need to wait until after ex-divi if I'm going to get more in the high 10's low 11's. Bugger as I had opportunities to build another 500k-1m shares in the 10's a couple of weeks ago. GLA