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Who knows what they have planned this year? We can, however, say that there will be no June AGM as has been past practise. Although due to the late ARs there had to be a follow up GMs to approve the Accounts this may be unnecessary this year if the AGM date and AR publication (whether late or not) provide the necessary lead time [not less than 21 clear days] to shareholders.

Is it CC's turn to retire by rotation this year and seek re-election?

You raise a good point: "So after one year of wrangling is the new Akkaduk license application now with the second ministry?"

They failed to get the 3AB licence renewed and then decided they didn't want it anyway after lots of effort had been put in, but the Social Obligation payments were outstanding and no drilling actually achieved.

At the EPC Munai owned 2,823 sq km Block 8 Contract area there are three identified structures, each with its own Licence. At Sholkara there were two producing wells and the Licence was renewed. At Akkaduk two wells were drilled but not tested and renewal has not occurred. At the third, Toresay, Caspian Sunrise has said it is no longer interested in the structure. Obligations pertaining to each of the 3 original Licences have not been disclosed so the degree of completeness remains unknown.

Quite what happens to a licenced structure when the licence renewal is refused, or not proceeded with, is not clear. If it returns to the Ministry is it there for the taking by anyone subject to a successful application irrespective of the Contract area holder or does it stay with the Ministry while the Contract area holder is still current?

wrt the deeps, we know that the licence renewal application intentions were changed repeatedly, eventually settling for 25yr Production licences. The award of an ‘up to 12 month extension’ of the Appraisal licence was unusual, while the freeze on work pending the award of the 25year licences only serving to hamper any progress on the outstanding obligations. The eventual award of a Production licence for the Airshagyl structure, for an initial 3 year period, was one year ago this week but no activity occurred, probably due to 'running on fumes'. The Yelemes structure received an extension to the Appraisal licence for a further two year period, almost immediately after the release of the much delayed 2024 AR. This was quickly followed by Tax concessions and by the year end had individual 2/3yr Appraisal licences with further new obligations. An onerous workload when added to the WIP [or WNIP!].

But all work is also subject to permits from ME and regional departmental functions, without which no activity is allowed. Is the absence of these permits due to submitting no applications, incompetent applications or excessive deliberation by those functions? At A7, where drilling was paused in March 2022 it is probable that the permits have now expired and need renewing, whilst at 803 they will need a variation to the permit to stop the drill above the salt and add a pump. The declared use of a G70 rig at the new well near 801 is interesting as Casp do not have a G70. Sinopec were prepared to sell their rig but as Casp have been short of cash perhaps an opportunity arose for an Oraziman CP company to purchase the rig and now Casp will buy that company for equity…

Tick Tock

jimo joe

Contd.

What is the rationale for the deal – A. for Casp, B. for Aibek O.?

A. Explanations of diversification with potential and avoidance of regulatory delays have been offered. There remains also the need to increase the shares in issue if the KO/CC bonus scheme is ever to deliver.

B. This is harder to understand as at face value, the answer is SFA. His 99% owned private company is being taken into the publicly owned CASP plc but he has to "transfer sufficient of the Caspian Sunrise shares he currently holds to other members of the Oraziman Family Concert Party before the issue of any Initial Consideration Shares or Deferred Consideration Shares" without giving either details of 'sufficient' or a reason. It has always been clear that the patronymic and familial succession were important, but this seems to cap AO's holding to the benefit of others in the CP. [AB is the named CEO at Kazikhan.] The sale at $25M must surely represent significant gain, but as it is at '5p' the value of this holding to Kazikhan (AO) would be the market value of the shares when being assessed for taxable gain. Or have I misunderstood something? (We could always rely on CoffeeCups to express a view on the financial mechanics: miss that.) Then why is he selling it, having got it to production and needing more investment to improve economics, why not get conventional funding if profitability is there?

Clearly CASP could not do a cash deal but by taking shares the CP overall percentage holding has increased and therefore they have secured more of the oilfields if they should ever produce, whilst still holding over 50% of the mining assets and with any immediate jeopardy of failing to complete the licensing obligations now removed. Interestingly, they advised that the total CP holding could reach 62.78% of the grand total of 3,132,378,063 shares in issue with all the pending deals maxed out: a timeline of ‘within 5 years’. This would still leave a shortfall of about 10% for the first bonus payment and the shares would also need to multi-bag up to >17.23p, of course...

jimo joe

CASP delivers an updating RNS, and the market delivers its verdict. Block 8 has duly completed and all Procyon Capital Ltd assets and liabilities are now with Caspian Sunrise. Tau-Cen LLP is still in process. No news on the boat or the manganese mine or even the other oilfield!

At BNG, planning for a side track at A6, as per GM, and is dependant on rig availability, and at 803 with oil detected over a 60m interval and with 15m under test (up from the initial 11m) where initial testing of the well had achieved a rate of approximately 500 bopd before activities were suspended while the licence upgrade was awaited and where, during this waiting period, CASP advised that the oil pressure at the well has increased with oil of good quality seeping to the surface, it transpires that now a pump is to be installed to deliver oil from the 10m perforated section. No info is given on continued drilling to the original pre-salt target. A new well will be drilled in Q2, using a G70 rig; whether this has been subcontracted to the G70 owner or whether they have acquired/will acquire/plan to acquire said rig is not stated.

At Block 8 the rig is being used at P1 to perforate a new 6m section for testing at a depth of 3,467 meters. No information is provided on the first 2 test zones, (3 meters at a depth of 3,400 meters & 3 meters from a depth of 3,391 meters) previously said to have flowed at up to 270bopd. Similarly for the sidetrack that was needed in October and due to start in November. At P2 a sidetrack is now the order of the day, a '400 meter side track from a depth of 3,100 meters', in a 3,449m well, 'targeting oil in the Permian dolomite'. The 'test production from Deep Well P2 has increased to approximately 876 bopd using a 4mm choke.' seems to have dried up and is simply a distant memory.

Then at WS they are still putting up the gazebo where 'the intention is to continue to produce from the interval identified at a depth of 2,250 meters', which seems futuristic and hopeful rather than, say, 'with continued production from'. The new well, in its third issue of the Plan within 5 weeks, will now be a shallower well and the current well will be deepened, casting further doubt on its production capabilities in its present state.

In summary as Q1 draws to a close they are not currently producing. $100 oil is an irrelevance as any oil has to go to the domestic market. They plan a lot more drilling. The market spoke.

jimo joe

Somm,I agree with most of the points you make below in your less sanguine than usual post. I have commented on their workload v. capabilities previously, and that has just increased with the plan for WSH-P2. Mind you, the previous plan lasted less than three weeks! Perhaps they couldn't work out how to drill past a flowing perforation, or perhaps the ME said no to a deeper permit. Warmer weather is hardly a surprise in the meteorological spring although the oil does not seem to have warmed the pipes much yet. Good news is the reservoir is able to flow. Downside is yet another well this H1, and probably means that rig is now tied to WS this year.

wrt the new wells, A9 - A10 - A11, they are not obliged to drill these until they have the Production Licence, and they have three years to apply for that, time to improve their Reserves by working on the current deeps.

wrt the next RNS being the shares, there may be room for manoeuvre there. They have previously said 'at first oil' and this RNS was titled 'First oil..' but no mention of an imminent share issue. In the terms of the deal "a further US$5 million to be paid following first oil at West Shalva by either the issue of a further 99,206,349 Ordinary Shares to be issued at a price of 4.0 p per share or in cash at the option of the seller", so with the shares at 2.5p being less than 4.0p the cash could make more sense. He could even buy on the open market, but he could also use it to settle his Block 8 loan... He gets the third and final $5M cash tranche when Casp have accrued $5M of revenue from WS, and they are the traders of the oil. He is not drip fed, like B8's 'royalty clause'.

Finally, they said "Towards the end of the year we plan to seek to upgrade the West Shalva licence to a full production licence.", where key words are 'plan to seek', as previously they have said that they need to submit a reserves statement which is then accepted by ME (or downgraded as with Airshagyl) and on full production licence application, they have to stop work on the field until its awarded. Surely something they would be reluctant to do this year.

jimo joe

True to form once again the RNS left PIs nonplussed. The information shows another deviation from 'the plan', but as somm pointed out they haven't said where the drill bit actually is, just where it is now planned to go. The real take-away though is that the WS rig is not going to be available for quite a while. Another rig is still tied up at B8 with the imminent P1 sidetrack and with perhaps another at P2, before (hopefully) moving on to Akkaduk. Meanwhile at 803 'the Group intends now to resume work', having been granted a further 2 year appraisal licence and must now drill a further 3 5000m wells before being eligible for a production licence. That's three, which is more than the c.2½ they have managed to date, with help still needed at 802.

And at Airshagyl, A6 is now awaiting its sidetrack, together with A5, and the completion of A7 where the results could improve the reserves before the production licence is awarded within the three year period of the appraisal licence, subject to 'credible plans to develop the Airshagyl structure', and then with two further wells required. Has A8 been decommissioned and the area restored?

Overall an obligatory workload that would seem to be way in excess of their capabilities, even if they had the funds to allow '4 deeps at once' as suggested from the GM. Further divestment seems almost inevitable, either in part (aka a farm-in) or complete. The ME funding offer was to take 50% of BNG. At 802, they said they 'would wish to undertake a joint venture with a leading technical partner before continuing work on this well', having previously said 'we are seeking to conclude a joint venture agreement with an identified technical partner to continue work on this well.' Sinopec were contracted to drill A8, but not paid in full because Casp did not accept the drilling works. The coveted G70 rig is theirs. The tax carrot with the future production licences may be an incentive for a partner. Plenty of loose ends...

But they only have two years to sort Yelemes, whether that is starting from the re-issue date (RNS 30 Dec) or the Award date (RNS 03 Dec) or, as it is an extension to the previous Yelemes Deep licence, perhaps that is from the end of the ‘up to 12 month extension’ on the BNG licence which expired on 4th August, whichever it is they will need to show signs of action soon. Unless, of course, they are holding back until the ME deal is done and the clock starts ticking on their $12.5M contribution...

A new investor presentation would provide an opportunity to clarify and a comprehensive web-site update would at least show signs of life and could even bring in some fresh RE mineral blood.

jimo joe

The Kazakh Anti-Monopoly Authority have finally pronounced, and Block 8 joins the Casp fold.

It's not the deal that was initially announced in the 2023AR as the owner did not satisfy the preconditions for completion. This was amended in June last year when the Sholkara Licence was renewed. "With work now permitted at the Sholkara structure we are moving ahead with the acquisition of Block 8 based on the original terms of £100 for the shares in Procyon Investments Limited and a $5 per barrel royalty on oil produced at the Block 8 Contract Area once owned by the Caspian Sunrise Group." When the option to acquire the Block 8 Contract Area was announced there was a further step required to re-register ownership in the UAE. The latest RNS makes no mention of that, and for good reason. In June they had said "The acquisition of the UAE registered Procyon Investments Limited, which owns the Kazakh registered EPC Munai LLP which in turn holds the licences for the Block 8 structure moves forward, albeit slowly.", whereas yesterday the acquisition of Procyon Investments Limited was not mentioned as the ownership of EPC Munai LLP has passed silently to Procyon Capital Limited, a company registered at the Astana International Financial Center in Kazakhstan. Procyon Capital Limited was formed on 16 August 2024 by AB, after the deal was underway, although when the transference of EPC Munai occurred, and the how and why are not known. Similarly the fate of Procyon Investments Limited acquisition is not known. Perhaps some of the delays were self-inflicted or perhaps they were required by Kazakh Authorities before acceding to the change. Whatever, the one hundred pounds or was it dollars has been paid for the single $500 share of PCL and the $5 royalty commences on any oil now produced. Whether any oil is now being produced is not known but a flaring permit was granted earlier this month.

Plenty of opportunity to clarify things at the GM, and hopefully share it with all stockholders this time.

What will they re-write next? A8 is producing, lol.

jimo joe

Yes, lots of news expected but the newsflow is predicated on outcomes. Some are waiting on third-party actions and some down to in-house efforts. CC cannot be held solely accountable for the list in the AR as all the board approved the release of the AR on 28 November and are also complicit. Naturally, the fact that all the expectations are 'forward looking' means that they may or may not occur, so no liability there.

Of particular intrigue is this from the AR, seemingly failing to complete ('will' is forward looking of course) :-

"Aibek Oraziman, the Group's largest shareholder who joined the board as a non-executive director in 2020, will, effective from 1 January 2026, be appointed Chief Operating Officer, which is an executive director position. At the same time Seokwoo Shin, who joined the company in 2018 and the board as Chief Operating Officer in 2021, will become a non-executive director. These appointments will in due course result in a change in the composition of certain board committees."

There has to be a reason why they do not update the website, beyond maintaining the RNS and Rule26 info, perhaps they are waiting for a seismic change and rebirth of the site with the mineral arm. They said 'A key determinant in the assessment of all these [mineral] projects is the speed at which they become cashflow positive.' Their first foray, Tau-Cen, has two separate six year exploration licences running until 2031, ie awarded last year. The exploration work plan has been approved with the Kazakh authorities with topographic surveys and magnetic exploration underway. A follow-up exploration plan over the next few years will confirm the Rare earth mineral concentrations. So, no suggestion of cash flowing in, just an exploration programme to support. We await the next acquisition...

wrt A6, the well, spudded in 2015, had not been worked on, reportedly, since the failed acid treatment in H1 2021 which suggests that this current acid treatment was a last roll of the dice before the inevitable sidetrack. Taken together with the Licence obligations and their timelines, the immediate workload seems to be in excess of rigs now. They need an income stream this year, beyond the shallows final payments, if they are to order all the necessary well hardware. While WS results are eagerly awaited, they are very unlikely to provide nett cash this year as the first $5M of ‘revenue’ goes to AB, the seller, and all spend is down to Casp. Block8 transfer and licence issues are well known, and Casp continues to fund activities in good faith and anticipation.

However, as they have announced a ME funding opportunity (almost one year ago) and a repeated desire to work with a partner; that could well be the way forward. We await further details...

jimo joe

Re the UAE Claim, we are told

"A current and three former shareholders are seeking to bring claims against the Company and certain of its Directors for US$25 million before the Dubai Courts, principally on the basis that as the shareholders concerned did not approve the disposal of the MJF and South Yelemes the transaction is not valid."

The company do not believe there is a case, obviously the claimants do. Who might they be? The immediate suspects in Dubai would be the Al Marri family, but only two sold and one holds. Who else then? Perhaps Kairat Satylganov who off-loaded to Al Marris, and/or other(s). But who would have right of approval after they had sold their shares, or is that not what is meant by 'the shareholders concerned' who, by being 'former' are no longer holders of said shares with voting rights, ergo not shareholders. Or is it the case that since the vote they have sold, i.e. now former holders, and they were not afforded the opportunity to vote whilst still holding? Hmm. Also, from where did Abai Kalmyrzayev get his holding? He popped up in the 2022AR (7July23) with 3.51%, now diluted to 3.36% in the Dec 2024AR, yet strangely doesn't appear on the website Rule 26 'Significant Holdings'.

They have just announced the conditional purchase of Tau-Cen LLP , another nascent company and a Related Party transaction, hungry for funding to fulfil licence obligations. Apparently owned by Amirbek Merkatil Oraziman, who is said to be a member of the Oraziman Family Concert Party, although he has never been mentioned before and surely would only become a CP member when he has a holding, i.e. on completion. ‘Connected’ for sure, but unspecified as to how. Meanwhile they have established Caspian Minerals LLP and, as with Absolute Oil, they use A N Other initially to be the contact and hold all the roles; Talgat Kuzbakov then and now Lars Johan Emil Iggland. He is an interesting chap, a Swedish & Swiss national, holds several positions and is Board Member of Midiel Aktiebolag in Linköping, and Vice President of Envibat Systems AB. Spidergram here

https://www.northdata.com/Midiel+Engineering+AG,+Stansstad/CHE-485.806.315.

showing link to Midiel Engineering AG, that has c.10% of the CASP:L stock. However, a little further research puts Aidana Urazimanova (aka Miss Oraziman) in the same dwelling as Lars.

Also freshly established is Kazikhan Ltd, registered on 25Dec2024, owned by Father and son with AB as contact and CEO...

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.", Sir Walter Scott, 1808.

jimo joe

Hello 2026, and a welcome to our new COO.

The last RNS lifted another veil but can we see any more? It fleshed out the Dec 4 Exemption RNS, and provided the terms for the taxation easement. At Airshagyl credible plans are needed for the development of the structure and the 25 year full licence is expected to be issued within 3 years and this will then require two further wells. While over at Yelemes during the 2 year appraisal licence an additional three wells have to be drilled to be eligible for the 25 year licence. Any oil produced during these periods has to be sold on the domestic market. The temporary exemption from export custom duties would seem to apply after the 25 year licences are awarded. There was also an admission that 'state confirmed reserves' exist for Yelemes although no volumes have ever been declared. Having now established 4 separate licences for structures on the BNG contract area, is the contract area itself still licenced for exploration and/or appraisal? Originally the one licence that was repeatedly renewed was for BNG, as per pg7 of 2024AR.

Yet again the expectations of the company on Dec 1st within the AR can be seen to be woefully adrift of reality, announcing just 2 out of 6, and that includes the CP deal. Some of these were expected in 2024 with the July 2023AR RNS.

The cash available at the end of November was $23.3M, now with the Deep licences secured it's not just the ME looking for credible plans, but PIs as well.

The obligatory spend necessary on the approved exploration work plan on the mineral licence has not been quantified.

The spend at B8 continues in advance of the expected Anti-monopoly approval. Since the Sholkara licence renewal in Q42024, spend for 2024 was $1.3M, and the obligatory work plan together with ongoing costs accrued since have yet to be declared.

At West Shalva drilling continues, we are led to believe.

Focus is needed on this work list, especially in the absence of income. They will have an idea (we hope) of the likelihood of success at WS and B8 and what future spend will be needed, but there remains the possibility of further disposals. (It was written into the WS deal.) An offer has been made for the 50% of the deeps (valid now the shallows have completed and the deep licences renewed), this cash would certainly help, but, as a joint venture with a leading technical partner is needed before 802 proceeds it may be a three-handed deal, so think of the time needed for that to conclude!

It will be interesting to see whether AO has a bonus scheme written into his appointment, and how much influence he has as main stock holder, and probable CEO in-waiting.

Too many fronts to manage? Time for a credible investor presentation??

Jimo joe

Somm, don't understand your "I'm not holding my breath re YD and B8 regs being signed off", did you miss the Dec 3 RNS? "Yelemes Deep structure licence

The Kazakh authorities have now extended the previous estimation licence covering the Yelemes

Deep structure for a further two years during which development work may resume and a further

submission may be made for an independent 25 year production licence.

Accordingly, the Group intends now to resume work at Deep Well 803 where oil was previously

detected over a 60 meter interval at depths between 3,360 and 3,420 meters."

et al

Casp are at a very interesting juncture in their life: they no longer have any income but have assets and cash ($23.3M as at 28 November 2025). They have spent over $100M trying to shake a 6 at the Deeps. They also have the nephews 'assets'; at the West Shalva Contract Area, that they now own, they have committed to the work programme obligations of a 3,000 metre well and although they still await approvals at B8 they have nonetheless decided to fund the on-going work programme for the existing owners.

803 was initially tested at c500bopd, (and has been seeping to the surface) so would seem to be the quickest route to income (and for the oil trading arm also) but are fresh permits needed, having time expired? The rig used at 803 was earmarked for the acid treatment at A6 (2023AR) but they have not stated which ttbomk. Will coil tubing be used? A G40 (one of the two from storage), is drilling the first West Shalva well. B8 P1 sidetrack has not happened yet as there was no status given in the AR or H1, beyond "decision to drill a new sidetrack", but the testing at two wells probably required a rig. Perhaps more activities planned than rigs available, and much greater distances than at BNG of course for the usual stop/start/relocate MO.

Having paid down the debts they are now keen to use some cash to diversify. They have established a Mineral arm and continue to pursue several mineral opportunities, the most advanced is a manganese project which is already profitable and generating cash. Also, on an opportunistic basis, they will look at projects in Kazakhstan other than from their core oil & gas and mineral sectors, where the board believes the Group's involvement would add significant shareholder value. Naturally that does not mean no further dilution, in fact dilution is implicit in that Bonus scheme, but they need to add value to create interest and move the SP up.

With the Deeps offer, can’t help thinking they may be turning away from O&G. They still need those difficult permits in order to continue to purchase/drill/produce, and not forgetting the difficult drilling conditions, B8 is as problematic as the Deeps. Or is it just the drill company?

Are you with BM or more uncertain??

Don't forget, Aibek Oraziman and Seokwoo Shin swap roles on Jan 1st. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Cvvh_WXzg4

jimo joe

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